227 
ACUS01 KWNS 071938
SWODY1
SPC AC 071936

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion
for additional information.

..Wendt.. 12/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/

...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf.  This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America.  This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.  

Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization.  However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening.  Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection.  The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20251207T1938.txt



225 
ACUS01 KWNS 071620
SWODY1
SPC AC 071619

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf.  This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America.  This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.  

Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization.  However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening.  Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection.  The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.

..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20251207T1620.txt



505 
ACUS01 KWNS 071234
SWODY1
SPC AC 071232

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible
across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and
evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to
northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream
cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support
pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL
Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered
convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening
within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor
mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective
intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate
deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a
warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts
capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level
shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20251207T1234.txt



947 
ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070541

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,
mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.

...FL Peninsula...
Abundant convective development is expected later this morning
across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely
west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream
cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced
differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north
FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve
from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level
flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection
may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to
convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for
transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated
across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized
damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an
aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected
modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.

..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20251207T0543.txt



168 
ACUS01 KWNS 070053
SWODY1
SPC AC 070052

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the
north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable
lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the
period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence
across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of
this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate
coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z
Sunday.

..Grams.. 12/07/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20251207T0053.txt