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409 
FXUS64 KTSA 072328
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
 
 - Below normal temperatures through Monday, with extensive cloud
   cover ending during the day Monday. 

 - Above average temperatures expected Tuesday to Thursday before another
   cold front brings very cold air for the weekend.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cool northerly flow is present across the area behind a cold front 
that passed through this morning. Winds are gusting to 20-30 mph. 
Between the cold advection and widespread cloud cover, temperatures 
will mostly be flat through the afternoon, then quickly drop this 
evening and overnight. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for 
southeast OK today but measurable rain is not expected.

With low clouds holding on for many areas tonight, lows will not be 
as chilly as they otherwise might be. Most locations will fall into 
the mid to upper 20s. The most likely location for clouds to clear 
will be the western portions of Osage/Pawnee counties where lows may 
be a bit lower. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The upper level trough will quickly move east Monday with the 
surface high passing through the region. This will mean winds 
will be much lighter. Skies are expected to clear during the day 
Monday with highs reaching the mid 40s. Upper level ridging nudges
into the area Tuesday with warm southwesterly flow boosting max 
temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak dry cold front 
will knock temperatures down a couple of degrees Wednesday, but 
otherwise the same pattern continues through Thursday. It's worth 
mentioning that the NAM (and other models that do well with low 
level cold air) do show the potential for some areas of low clouds
during this period, so there is at least some possibility that we
do not warm up as much as is currently expected. 

A potent upper level trough will descend from Canada into the 
eastern US this Friday to Saturday. Although any dynamical forcing 
will be well removed, the deep cold air will move south into the 
forecast area at the surface. Most guidance is in good agreement on 
this outcome, with the main uncertainties related to the depth and 
timing of the cold air. With that said, this will likely be close
to if not the coldest airmass of the season so far. High 
temperatures in the north may struggle to get much above freezing.
However, given the trajectory of the upper level trough, 
precipitation is not expected. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue tonight across the 
majority of the CWA, with potential for IFR ceilings over far
northwest Arkansas late tonight. During the day Monday, the low
clouds are forecast to finally begin scattering out mid morning
through the afternoon hours. Wind through the period start out
northerly and become southerly during the day Monday once surface
high pressure moves off to the east. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  46  34  61 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   30  48  31  60 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   27  50  33  62 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   25  45  28  61 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   28  45  31  57 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   29  43  33  58 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   28  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   26  44  32  57 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   25  48  33  62 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   30  50  31  60 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T2328.txt

 247 FXUS64 KTSA 071740 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1140 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Below normal temperatures through Monday, with extensive cloud cover ending during the day Monday. - Above average temperatures expected Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings very cold air for the weekend. - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Cool northerly flow is present across the area behind a cold front that passed through this morning. Winds are gusting to 20-30 mph. Between the cold advection and widespread cloud cover, temperatures will mostly be flat through the afternoon, then quickly drop this evening and overnight. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for southeast OK today but measurable rain is not expected. With low clouds holding on for many areas tonight, lows will not be as chilly as they otherwise might be. Most locations will fall into the mid to upper 20s. The most likely location for clouds to clear will be the western portions of Osage/Pawnee counties where lows may be a bit lower. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The upper level trough will quickly move east Monday with the surface high passing through the region. This will mean winds will be much lighter. Skies are expected to clear during the day Monday with highs reaching the mid 40s. Upper level ridging nudges into the area Tuesday with warm southwesterly flow boosting max temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak dry cold front will knock temperatures down a couple of degrees Wednesday, but otherwise the same pattern continues through Thursday. It's worth mentioning that the NAM (and other models that do well with low level cold air) do show the potential for some areas of low clouds during this period, so there is at least some possibility that we do not warm up as much as is currently expected. A potent upper level trough will descend from Canada into the eastern US this Friday to Saturday. Although any dynamical forcing will be well removed, the deep cold air will move south into the forecast area at the surface. Most guidance is in good agreement on this outcome, with the main uncertainties related to the depth and timing of the cold air. With that said, this will likely be close to if not the coldest airmass of the season so far. High temperatures in the north may struggle to get much above freezing. However, given the trajectory of the upper level trough, precipitation is not expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 MVFR cigs are expected to continue through the day and into the night tonight across all sites. The clearing line looks to approach E OK sites tonight, but is forecast to stall just west of all terminals. KMLC and KFSM will likely also be on the fringes of MVFR cigs all night, but will maintain all MVFR conditions through the night for now for those sites. Some light drizzle or mist can't be ruled out through the rest of today across NW AR and SE OK, but confidence is too low to mention currently. Cigs could lower to IFR conditions across NW AR sites tonight. Breezy northerly winds will also continue this afternoon, before becoming light overnight tonight. Clouds should finally break and clear out during the day Monday from west to east. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 26 46 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 30 48 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 27 50 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 25 45 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 28 45 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 29 43 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 28 46 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 26 44 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 F10 25 48 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 30 50 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...04 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T1740.txt
 536 FXUS64 KTSA 071442 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - A combination of colder air and low clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below average cool weather for Sunday. - Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week. - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The surface cold front has made it through the forecast area this morning with another cold, cloudy day in store. Breezy northerly winds have picked up behind the front. Near steady to slightly falling temperatures are expected through the rest of today, with wind chill values generally in the lower 30s for most locations through this afternoon. The going forecast is handling current trends pretty well. Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures. We also cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory earlier this morning as visibility conditions have improved over the area this morning. Bowlan && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed. The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level. A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will hold highs below average for Sunday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a warmup is expected to commence by Sunday. The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this forecast will be no different. The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east. The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell. Lacy && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period. North winds will increase this morning following the passage of a cold front and will gust to near or above 20 knots at times today. The winds will diminish this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 42 25 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 50 31 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 46 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 41 22 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 45 26 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 44 28 46 34 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 45 26 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 43 24 45 31 / 0 0 0 0 F10 44 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...4 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T1442.txt
 992 FXUS64 KTSA 071137 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 537 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - While some fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front, widespread dense fog like what occurred last night is not expected. - A cold front will move across the region on Sunday, with breezy northwest winds behind it. A combination of colder air and low clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below average cool weather for Sunday. - Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week. - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed. The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level. A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will hold highs below average for Sunday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a warmup is expected to commence by Sunday. The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this forecast will be no different. The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east. The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell. Lacy && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period. North winds will increase this morning following the passage of a cold front and will gust to near or above 20 knots at times today. The winds will diminish this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 42 25 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 50 31 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 46 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 41 22 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 44 26 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 43 28 46 34 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 44 26 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 40 24 45 31 / 0 0 0 0 F10 44 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-053- 071-073>076. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T1137.txt
 922 FXUS64 KTSA 070459 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1059 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - While some fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front, widespread dense fog like what occurred last night is not expected. - A cold front will move across the region on Sunday, with breezy northwest winds behind it. A combination of colder air and low clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below average cool weather for Sunday. - Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week. - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed. The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level. A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will hold highs below average for Sunday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a warmup is expected to commence by Sunday. The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this forecast will be no different. The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east. The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR/MVFR conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CWA tonight into Sunday morning while a dry frontal boundary moves through the region. There remains potential for LIFR conditions for KMLC, which the low level clouds have cleared as of 05z. Behind the frontal passage, breezy north/northwesterly winds and MVFR ceilings are forecast through Sunday afternoon. Once the mid/upper level trof axis exits Sunday evening there are indications for cloud cover to become more scattered west to east. For now will add a mention to eastern Oklahoma and hold onto MVFR for far northwest Arkansas Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 46 34 42 25 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 52 37 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 51 37 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 48 31 41 22 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 52 36 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 53 37 43 28 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 52 36 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 49 34 40 24 / 0 0 0 0 F10 49 35 44 25 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 39 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...20 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T0459.txt
 441 FXUS64 KTSA 062348 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 548 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Low clouds and fog will continue at times through Monday. - A dry cold front Sunday will reinforce below normal temperatures. - Mild weather returns Tuesday to Thursday before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end of the week. - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low clouds and fog are present across most of the area this morning, keeping temperatures down in spite of a warm airmass overhead. Some erosion of the low clouds and fog are expected by this afternoon, but areas near the I-44 corridor in particular may stay clouded over even if the fog lifts a bit. A cold front moving from NW to SE during the late overnight period may briefly break up the low clouds but they should fill right back in behind it. This cold front will be dry, or at best, produce some light drizzle. High temperatures today will remain in the 40s for most areas, with a few areas touching 50 F that do clear out. Overnight lows will mostly be in the 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Temperature trends will be muted Sunday as cold advection partially offsets diurnal heating. Between these factors and likely persistence of low clouds for many areas, high temperatures will only climb to the upper 30s to low 40s in the north. It'll be a bit warmer south of I-40 where the cold front will take longer to reach, mostly near 50 F. Some isolated drizzle may occur but measurable rain is not expected. Some clearing is expected Sunday night into Monday, so low temperatures will be quite cold once again, with low to mid 20s for most spots. Monday will be a transition day, with any lingering low clouds finally breaking up and light northerly flow gradually reversing to southerly as the surface high moves southeast. With downsloping southwesterly winds we should avoid the low clouds and warm appreciably. Many locations will approach 60 F Tuesday to Thursday, with low to mid 50s for northwest AR. Dry conditions will persist through this period. A potent dry cold front will then move through around Friday. Ensemble guidance mostly agrees on this outcome, with uncertainties about the strength. With that said, some guidance is very cold, and would result in the coldest weather of the season so far. But as was noted, it does look dry, with essentially zero support for any precipitation as the upper level forcing remains well to the northeast of the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 IFR/MVFR ceilings in eastern Oklahoma and mostly clear conditions in northwest Arkansas at the start of the period are anticipated to become LIFR/IFR conditions tonight over the CWA. A dry cold front is forecast to drop into northeast Oklahoma early Sunday morning and push through the CWA during the day. Behind the frontal passage, breezy north/northwest winds and conditions improving to MVFR should develop from northwest to southeast during the day Sunday. At this time, MVFR ceilings look to remain through the end of the TAF period, though there is some indications for parts of eastern Oklahoma to lift back to VFR at end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 34 42 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 38 51 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 37 48 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 30 40 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 35 44 24 47 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 36 45 25 46 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 37 46 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 33 40 22 44 / 0 0 0 0 F10 36 46 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 39 54 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...20 File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251206T2348.txt


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