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053
FXUS64 KTSA 011828
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
- Showers and storms through tonight primarily north of I-40.
Isolated severe storms across NE OK through evening.
- Rain chances and wide ranging temperatures continue Monday.
Drier and warmer on Tuesday.
- An unsettled weather pattern continues mid to late week with multiple
periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential
for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in the mid
to late week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Expanding area of showers and storms currently spreading into NE
OK will continue eastward through the afternoon and evening. A
continued increase in coverage is expected with primarily north of
Interstate 40 which generally aligns along and north of the
stalled frontal zone. Isolated strong to severe storms will
possible through the evening with large hail the primary concern
as most storms will be in the more elevated post frontal airmass.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 123- PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Monday as
the warm front begins to lift northward. Wide ranging temps again
likely across the front zone. The warm sector expands area wide on
Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures and breezy south winds
expected. This pattern will allow a more meaningful increase in
low level moisture area wide ahead of the next shortwave trough
timed to influence the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Expectation is numerous to widespread showers and storms develop
along and ahead of the associated cold front with at least an
isolated severe weather risk especially south and east through the
day Wednesday. A more widespread footprint of beneficial rainfall
is likely.
The warm sector quickly resets and expands northward on Thursday
ahead of the next wave which will increase shower and storm
chances Thursday night through Friday night. A similar widespread
swath of precip is expected along and ahead of the associated
frontal passage with potential severe and locally heavy rainfall
concerns. The pattern is likely to remain unsettled into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Broken/overcast mid and high clouds at the start of the period
remain common into this evening before MVFR/IFR ceilings spread
into the CWA tonight through Monday morning. The greater potential
for IFR conditions are across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. At the same time, scattered rain showers along
with thunderstorm chances are forecast this afternoon into the
overnight hours for the CWA as a frontal boundary sags through the
region. Within the stronger storm potential, MVFR conditions and
variable winds are possible. Majority of the precip looks to move
off to the east Monday morning and have added Prob30/Tempo groups
for timing of greater potential. Winds through the period start
out south to easterly and become north to east behind the frontal
boundary tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 44 63 54 79 / 70 20 10 20
FSM 52 73 55 81 / 40 20 0 10
MLC 50 73 58 79 / 40 20 10 10
BVO 38 55 47 79 / 70 20 20 20
FYV 49 70 54 77 / 60 30 10 10
BYV 45 64 53 78 / 80 30 20 20
MKO 48 67 56 79 / 60 20 10 10
MIO 45 61 53 78 / 80 30 20 20
F10 48 66 57 80 / 60 20 10 10
HHW 56 73 57 79 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260301T1828.txt
902
FXUS64 KTSA 011748
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1148 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1026 PM CST SAT Feb 28 2026
- Rain chances increase Sunday, especially north of I-40 (40-70% chance).
A cold front across the area will result in a wide range in
temperatures.
- Localized fire weather potential will continue for the next few
afternoons in areas with minimal rainfall.
- An unsettled weather pattern continues over the next week with
multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in
the mid to late week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
A midlevel shortwave intersecting a surface cold front will continue
to promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. As
forcing weakens, lingering precipitation will die off by dawn.
Overall, total accumulation will be minimal, with most locations
seeing little to none. Low temperatures will vary significantly,
ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the far north (north of the
cold front), to 50s near and south of the front. The front is
expected to settle near the I-44 corridor overnight tonight.
During the day Sunday, the front will retreat back north, with mild
air surging northward as well. Afternoon highs will again vary quite
a bit. North of the front (roughly Highway 412), highs will be in
the 50s to low 60s. South of the front, upper 60s to upper 70s are
expected. Shower and thunderstorm activity will reinvigorate during
the afternoon and evening hours as another mid level shortwave
trough approaches. Rainfall will probably be limited, but the
chance for more widespread measurable rain will be higher than
Saturday, especially if some of the more aggressive CAMs like the
HRRR are correct. Overall, forecast PoPs will range from 40-70%
north of I-40 to 20- 40% south of there. Heavy rain and severe
weather are not expected. Limited fire weather potential may
develop during the afternoon, especially across southeast OK where
the threat of rain is lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
An active weather pattern will remain in place for the remainder of
the forecast period. The big picture seems to be in good agreement
amongst most modeling guidance, which is that we will have moist
southwest flow and periodic mid level disturbances passing through.
These features will kick off several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With that said, Monday and Tuesday appear to be
relatively slower days, with less meaningful storm activity.
By midweek that will begin to change with a more robust trough axis
providing better forcing to an already moist and unstable airmass.
According to EPS climatology, much of the week will feature PWAT
values in the 95-99th percentile relative to climatology. A more
widespread precipitation event is expected Wednesday-Thursday, with
potentially locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorm
activity. Then for Friday and into the weekend a deeper western
trough will further increase the moist southwest flow and upper
level diffluence over the area. This is likely to keep periodic
showers and thunderstorms in the region.
With all of this said, this is the type of pattern where you can
have good confidence in the big picture but low confidence in the
details. The model guidance shows significant uncertainties in
the exact timing and location of each of the features that were
mentioned, so the forecast details will likely shift around in the
days ahead. Separate from the rain/storm threat, it's worth
mentioning that the airmass in place will also remain warm through
the extended. Most days will see temperatures above normal, some
well above normal. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with 70s
to low 80s being expected. For areas that do not see meaningful
rainfall, fire weather will continue to be a concern through
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Broken/overcast mid and high clouds at the start of the period
remain common into this evening before MVFR/IFR ceilings spread
into the CWA tonight through Monday morning. The greater potential
for IFR conditions are across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. At the same time, scattered rain showers along
with thunderstorm chances are forecast this afternoon into the
overnight hours for the CWA as a frontal boundary sags through the
region. Within the stronger storm potential, MVFR conditions and
variable winds are possible. Majority of the precip looks to move
off to the east Monday morning and have added Prob30/Tempo groups
for timing of greater potential. Winds through the period start
out south to easterly and become north to east behind the frontal
boundary tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 68 44 63 54 / 60 70 20 10
FSM 77 52 73 55 / 50 40 20 0
MLC 79 50 73 58 / 40 40 20 10
BVO 57 38 55 47 / 50 70 20 20
FYV 72 49 70 54 / 70 60 30 10
BYV 64 45 64 53 / 80 80 30 20
MKO 74 48 67 56 / 60 60 20 10
MIO 60 45 61 53 / 60 80 30 20
F10 75 48 66 57 / 60 60 20 10
HHW 79 56 73 57 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260301T1748.txt
677
FXUS64 KTSA 011138
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
- Rain chances increase Sunday, especially north of I-40 (40-70% chance).
A cold front across the area will result in a wide range in
temperatures.
- Localized fire weather potential will continue for the next few
afternoons in areas with minimal rainfall.
- An unsettled weather pattern continues over the next week with
multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in
the mid to late week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
A midlevel shortwave intersecting a surface cold front will continue
to promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. As
forcing weakens, lingering precipitation will die off by dawn.
Overall, total accumulation will be minimal, with most locations
seeing little to none. Low temperatures will vary significantly,
ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the far north (north of the
cold front), to 50s near and south of the front. The front is
expected to settle near the I-44 corridor overnight tonight.
During the day Sunday, the front will retreat back north, with mild
air surging northward as well. Afternoon highs will again vary quite
a bit. North of the front (roughly Highway 412), highs will be in
the 50s to low 60s. South of the front, upper 60s to upper 70s are
expected. Shower and thunderstorm activity will reinvigorate during
the afternoon and evening hours as another mid level shortwave
trough approaches. Rainfall will probably be limited, but the
chance for more widespread measurable rain will be higher than
Saturday, especially if some of the more aggressive CAMs like the
HRRR are correct. Overall, forecast PoPs will range from 40-70%
north of I-40 to 20- 40% south of there. Heavy rain and severe
weather are not expected. Limited fire weather potential may
develop during the afternoon, especially across southeast OK where
the threat of rain is lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
An active weather pattern will remain in place for the remainder of
the forecast period. The big picture seems to be in good agreement
amongst most modeling guidance, which is that we will have moist
southwest flow and periodic mid level disturbances passing through.
These features will kick off several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With that said, Monday and Tuesday appear to be
relatively slower days, with less meaningful storm activity.
By midweek that will begin to change with a more robust trough axis
providing better forcing to an already moist and unstable airmass.
According to EPS climatology, much of the week will feature PWAT
values in the 95-99th percentile relative to climatology. A more
widespread precipitation event is expected Wednesday-Thursday, with
potentially locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorm
activity. Then for Friday and into the weekend a deeper western
trough will further increase the moist southwest flow and upper
level diffluence over the area. This is likely to keep periodic
showers and thunderstorms in the region.
With all of this said, this is the type of pattern where you can
have good confidence in the big picture but low confidence in the
details. The model guidance shows significant uncertainties in
the exact timing and location of each of the features that were
mentioned, so the forecast details will likely shift around in the
days ahead. Separate from the rain/storm threat, it's worth
mentioning that the airmass in place will also remain warm through
the extended. Most days will see temperatures above normal, some
well above normal. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with 70s
to low 80s being expected. For areas that do not see meaningful
rainfall, fire weather will continue to be a concern through
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the day today. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase later this afternoon at the
northeast Oklahoma sites and this evening at the rest of the
sites. A shallow frontal boundary will oscillate across the area
today before moving south by this evening. The boundary will
likely get hung up in the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas
overnight. MVFR conditions will become common at the northeast
Oklahoma sites later this evening and overnight, with MVFR
conditions delayed at the other sites until near or just beyond
the end of this forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 45 64 55 / 70 70 30 10
FSM 75 51 76 55 / 50 60 20 0
MLC 78 52 75 59 / 50 60 10 10
BVO 58 39 59 50 / 60 70 30 20
FYV 71 48 70 55 / 70 70 30 10
BYV 63 45 66 55 / 80 80 40 10
MKO 71 50 70 57 / 70 70 30 10
MIO 60 45 62 55 / 70 80 40 20
F10 73 50 70 58 / 60 70 20 10
HHW 79 55 76 58 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260301T1138.txt
159
FXUS64 KTSA 010433
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1033 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Rain chances increase Sunday, especially north of I-40 (40-70% chance).
A cold front across the area will result in a wide range in
temperatures.
- Localized fire weather potential will continue for the next few
afternoons in areas with minimal rainfall.
- An unsettled weather pattern continues over the next week with
multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards in
the mid to late week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
A midlevel shortwave intersecting a surface cold front will continue
to promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. As
forcing weakens, lingering precipitation will die off by dawn.
Overall, total accumulation will be minimal, with most locations
seeing little to none. Low temperatures will vary significantly,
ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the far north (north of the
cold front), to 50s near and south of the front. The front is
expected to settle near the I-44 corridor overnight tonight.
During the day Sunday, the front will retreat back north, with mild
air surging northward as well. Afternoon highs will again vary quite
a bit. North of the front (roughly Highway 412), highs will be in
the 50s to low 60s. South of the front, upper 60s to upper 70s are
expected. Shower and thunderstorm activity will reinvigorate during
the afternoon and evening hours as another mid level shortwave
trough approaches. Rainfall will probably be limited, but the
chance for more widespread measurable rain will be higher than
Saturday, especially if some of the more aggressive CAMs like the
HRRR are correct. Overall, forecast PoPs will range from 40-70%
north of I-40 to 20- 40% south of there. Heavy rain and severe
weather are not expected. Limited fire weather potential may
develop during the afternoon, especially across southeast OK where
the threat of rain is lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
An active weather pattern will remain in place for the remainder of
the forecast period. The big picture seems to be in good agreement
amongst most modeling guidance, which is that we will have moist
southwest flow and periodic mid level disturbances passing through.
These features will kick off several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With that said, Monday and Tuesday appear to be
relatively slower days, with less meaningful storm activity.
By midweek that will begin to change with a more robust trough axis
providing better forcing to an already moist and unstable airmass.
According to EPS climatology, much of the week will feature PWAT
values in the 95-99th percentile relative to climatology. A more
widespread precipitation event is expected Wednesday-Thursday, with
potentially locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorm
activity. Then for Friday and into the weekend a deeper western
trough will further increase the moist southwest flow and upper
level diffluence over the area. This is likely to keep periodic
showers and thunderstorms in the region.
With all of this said, this is the type of pattern where you can
have good confidence in the big picture but low confidence in the
details. The model guidance shows significant uncertainties in
the exact timing and location of each of the features that were
mentioned, so the forecast details will likely shift around in the
days ahead. Separate from the rain/storm threat, it's worth
mentioning that the airmass in place will also remain warm through
the extended. Most days will see temperatures above normal, some
well above normal. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with 70s
to low 80s being expected. For areas that do not see meaningful
rainfall, fire weather will continue to be a concern through
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, with
expanding showers during the latter 6 hours leading to prevailing
MVFR conditions at least at the NE OK and far NW AR sites. While not
prevailing, similar conditions will be included in a PROB30 at MLC.
The chance of thunderstorm impacts during that same time frame is
non zero but low enough to leave out of the TAF for now. Existing
widely scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms near MLC and
FSM may impact these two terminals during the first few hours of the
TAF period. Will continue with the PROB30 group containing a
thunderstorm mention for MLC given the current proximity and
continued CAM output showing a higher chance there than at FSM. It
is more likely that the activity will remain south of FSM during
this time frame but will include a VCSH mention. Some uncertainty
exists regarding the development of a more cohesive batch of
thunderstorms by mid afternoon tomorrow that would be most likely to
affect the NE OK and W AR sites, with the HRRR continuing to be
bullish in this regard. Will continue with the PROB30s at these 7
sites late afternoon into very early evening. Winds will be gusty at
times from the north to northeast following the frontal passage at
the NE OK sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 48 67 45 / MMM 20 70 70
FSM 81 53 75 51 / MMM 20 50 60
MLC 79 56 78 52 / MMM 20 50 60
BVO 81 42 58 39 / MMM 10 60 70
FYV 76 46 71 48 / MMM 20 70 70
BYV 78 45 63 45 / MMM 20 80 80
MKO 76 52 71 50 / MMM 20 70 70
MIO 75 42 60 45 / MMM 20 70 80
F10 78 52 73 50 / MMM 20 60 70
HHW 80 55 79 55 / MMM 10 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260301T0433.txt
283
FXUS64 KTSA 282331
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Grassland fire weather concerns this afternoon w/near record high temps.
- Shower and thunderstorms ongoing with continued isolated to
scattered coverage through Saturday night.
- Higher rain chances Sunday especially north. Cold front across
the area with wide range in temperatures.
- An unsettled weather pattern over the next week with multiple
periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential
for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Corridor of high based showers and and isolated storms ongoing
across E OK will continue eastward through the afternoon with
rainfall amounts remaining light but isolated lighting hazard risk
for outdoor activities. Cold front moves through NE OK into far NW
AR late overnight with a continued axis of elevated convection
possible from SE OK through NW AR though overall coverage is
likely to remain low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The cold front evolution Sunday through Monday will have a large
impact on local conditions with expanding cloud cover and rain
chances along and north of the front with continued unseasonably
warm temperatures south of the boundary. An expanding area of
convection appears likely by mid morning Sunday north of the front
across S KS with and ESE motion keeping higher rain chances across
far NE OK into NW AR from afternoon through evening. This scenario
will reinforce the frontal zone and further sharpen the
temperature gradient across the region.
The frontal zone will attempt to lift northward Sunday night into
Monday and likely become more aligned SW to NE with widely varying
temps expected again across the forecast area. Precip chances will
gradually wane as weak ridging aloft develops downstream of the
evolving southwestern CONUS troughing.
Unseasonably warm temperatures return area wide Tuesday as the
warm sector spreads northward. Shortwave trough is currently timed
to eject across the central CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday
with an increase in shower and storm chances with the associated
frontal passage. The degree of moisture return will be the focus
for any uptick in severe weather potential as wind fields will be
strong with the wave passage. The unsettled pattern continues into
late week with more pronounced troughing across the western CONUS
and multiple periods of showers and storms likely across the
Plains late week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions should prevail thorugh the period, except during
on-station impacts from showers and thunderstorms. MLC is the most
likely site to see a thunderstorm overnight given recent CAM
output and an overnight PROB30 group will be maintained at that
site. Additional development most likely during the afternoon
tomorrow will have the highest chance of affecting the other
sites, with a lesser chance at MLC prior to tomorrow evening.
As such, PROB30 groups will be included for the other sites
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will shift from a southerly direction to
a northerly direction behind the cold frontal passage tonight at
the NE OK sites, with gustiness expected. A wind shift will also
occur at the far NW AR sites but less gustiness is expected there.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 48 64 44 65 / 20 50 60 40
FSM 53 71 44 72 / 20 40 50 30
MLC 56 76 55 77 / 30 40 40 20
BVO 39 56 36 60 / 10 50 70 30
FYV 46 67 44 66 / 20 60 70 40
BYV 46 58 41 64 / 20 60 70 40
MKO 52 69 47 69 / 20 50 50 30
MIO 43 56 41 63 / 20 70 80 40
F10 53 72 50 70 / 20 40 50 30
HHW 56 78 54 77 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260228T2331.txt
