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019
FXUS64 KTSA 081117
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Patchy frost likely NE OK into far NW AR tonight. Areas of fog
possible through early Sunday morning. Fog may become locally
dense, especially across NE OK and NW AR.
- Warming trend through early week with low chance of rain mid
week.
- Cooler weather likely by late week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
It is another chilly night across the region with high pressure
and light winds producing effective radiational cooling. Lows in
the 30s are expected across NE OK and NW AR, with low 40s near the
Red River. A brief freeze is possible in the typical cold
drainage locations, though this will depend heavily on fog
development. At least patchy fog is possible areawide overnight,
though the greatest coverage and potential for significant
visibility reductions are expected along and north of I-40.
Anywhere that remains fog-free is likely to experience the coldest
temperatures. Frost will also be a concern and a Frost Advisory
is in effect from midnight through 9 AM.
Any fog is likely to burn off by mid-late Sunday morning with
mostly clear skies expected during the day. Temperatures will
recover nicely into at least the mid-upper 60s areawide. With
winds remaining light, it should be a pleasant fall day for the
local area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Overnight lows will be a tad warmer Sunday night, though still
below average. Fog development will once again be possible across
NE OK and NW AR. By Monday, high pressure will be sliding east,
with southerly low level flow returning to the forecast area. This
will promote a warming trend into mid week, with highs warming
into the mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level low will
move east across N TX Tuesday, potentially leading to a few
isolated showers across SE OK, but any rainfall likely remains
negligible. Then, on Wednesday, a shortwave will drop southeast
through the central Plains, perhaps leading to some low rain and
storm chances across far E OK and NW AR. From here, a pair of cold
fronts are projected to sweep through the region with deep
troughing developing over the eastern US and ridging to our west.
Dry northwest flow aloft and post-frontal high pressure are likely
to keep conditions dry and seasonably cool through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Areas of fog will result in variable visibilities for the first
couple hours of the forecast period, with KXNA most likely to see
dense fog. The fog will burn off by mid morning, with VFR
conditions and light winds then expected for the rest of the
forecast period. Some patchy fog may develop again late tonight,
but coverage looks to be more limited than it is this morning, so
will leave the mention out of the TAF's for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 69 40 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 66 41 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 69 40 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 70 35 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 64 34 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 65 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 66 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 66 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
F10 69 41 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 70 44 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ055>071-154-
254-354.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ057-058-
062-063.
AR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
011.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-
010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261108T1117.txt
954
FXUS64 KTSA 080439
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1039 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Patchy frost likely NE OK into far NW AR tonight. Areas of fog
possible through early Sunday morning. Fog may become locally
dense, especially across NE OK and NW AR.
- Warming trend through early week with low chance of rain mid
week.
- Cooler weather likely by late week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
It is another chilly night across the region with high pressure
and light winds producing effective radiational cooling. Lows in
the 30s are expected across NE OK and NW AR, with low 40s near the
Red River. A brief freeze is possible in the typical cold
drainage locations, though this will depend heavily on fog
development. At least patchy fog is possible areawide overnight,
though the greatest coverage and potential for significant
visibility reductions are expected along and north of I-40.
Anywhere that remains fog-free is likely to experience the coldest
temperatures. Frost will also be a concern and a Frost Advisory
is in effect from midnight through 9 AM.
Any fog is likely to burn off by mid-late Sunday morning with
mostly clear skies expected during the day. Temperatures will
recover nicely into at least the mid-upper 60s areawide. With
winds remaining light, it should be a pleasant fall day for the
local area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Overnight lows will be a tad warmer Sunday night, though still
below average. Fog development will once again be possible across
NE OK and NW AR. By Monday, high pressure will be sliding east,
with southerly low level flow returning to the forecast area. This
will promote a warming trend into mid week, with highs warming
into the mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper level low will
move east across N TX Tuesday, potentially leading to a few
isolated showers across SE OK, but any rainfall likely remains
negligible. Then, on Wednesday, a shortwave will drop southeast
through the central Plains, perhaps leading to some low rain and
storm chances across far E OK and NW AR. From here, a pair of cold
fronts are projected to sweep through the region with deep
troughing developing over the eastern US and ridging to our west.
Dry northwest flow aloft and post-frontal high pressure are likely
to keep conditions dry and seasonably cool through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions under variable high cloudiness across ern OK and
nwrn AR to start the forecast period, but MVFR VSBYS in fog are
expected to develop in the next few hours most sites, with TEMPO IFR
VSBY likely at some sites. Fog will continue through mid-morning
Sunday. VFR conditions will redevelop by late morning areawide and
continue through the end of the forecast period. Calm wind becomes
light SW or W late Sunday morning.
&&
69
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 36 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 35 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 32 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 38 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 34 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 34 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
F10 34 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 45 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for OKZ055>071-154-254-354.
AR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261108T0439.txt
037
FXUS64 KTSA 072331
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Patchy frost likely NE OK into far NW AR tonight.
- Warming trend through early week with low chance of rain mid
week.
- Cooler weather likely by late week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Sfc high is forecast to settle across the forecast area tonight,
however cooling potential will be somewhat mitigated by increasing
high clouds across the south and air that is not particularly dry.
Forecast will side toward a cooler scenario with patchy fog
possible. Areas of frost are likely across northern locations and
colder valleys may see a brief light freeze.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Warming trend begins Sunday with above normal temperatures
returning and persisting through mid next week. The upper low
currently across far SW TX will weaken as it slowly evolves
northeastward and the majority of guidance keep any rains well
south of the local area. A fast moving wave will move across the
region Tuesday night or Wednesday with a low chance of light rain.
Stronger ridging aloft is forecast to develop across the western
CONUS placing dry and cooler northwesterly flow aloft downstream.
This will act to reinforce the airmass change behind the Wednesday
wave and bring cooler temperatures, nearer to seasonal normals,
for late week into next weekend. Dry weather also appears likely
to continue into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions with variable amounts of high cloudiness will
continue across ern OK and nwrn AR until after midnight, when MVFR
VSBYS in fog are expected to develop, with TEMPO IFR VSBY likely at
some sites. All sites will have a good chance of being impacted by
fog late tonight through mid-morning Sunday. VFR conditions will
redevelop by late morning areawide and continue through the end of
the forecast period. Calm wind becomes light SW or W late Sunday
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 36 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 35 68 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 32 70 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 38 66 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 34 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 34 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
F10 34 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 45 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for
OKZ055>071-154-254-354.
AR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261107T2331.txt
081
FXUS64 KTSA 071827
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Patchy frost likely NE OK into far NW AR tonight.
- Warming trend through early week with low chance of rain mid
week.
- Cooler weather likely by late week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Sfc high is forecast to settle across the forecast area tonight,
however cooling potential will be somewhat mitigated by increasing
high clouds across the south and air that is not particularly dry.
Forecast will side toward a cooler scenario with patchy fog
possible. Areas of frost are likely across northern locations and
colder valleys may see a brief light freeze.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Warming trend begins Sunday with above normal temperatures
returning and persisting through mid next week. The upper low
currently across far SW TX will weaken as it slowly evolves
northeastward and the majority of guidance keep any rains well
south of the local area. A fast moving wave will move across the
region Tuesday night or Wednesday with a low chance of light rain.
Stronger ridging aloft is forecast to develop across the western
CONUS placing dry and cooler northwesterly flow aloft downstream.
This will act to reinforce the airmass change behind the Wednesday
wave and bring cooler temperatures, nearer to seasonal normals,
for late week into next weekend. Dry weather also appears likely
to continue into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Ceilings and visibilities at this hour across the region continue
to improve as low-level mixing erodes the lingering stratus and
fog. Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated between 18-20Z and
should prevail through this evening. Wind become nearly calm after
sunset, which will set up the potential for additional fog
between midnight and sunrise Sunday morning. At this time,
confidence is high enough to include light fog potential at each
TAF site, though onset and duration are slightly different at each
site. Exact density and coverage are still uncertain at this time
and will likely need to be adjusted over the next couple of TAF
packages. Once fog erodes Sunday morning, VFR will prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 36 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 35 68 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 32 70 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 38 66 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 34 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 34 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
F10 34 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 45 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for
OKZ055>071-154-254-354.
AR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261107T1827.txt
438
FXUS64 KTSA 071725
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Frost and light freeze potential this weekend, with the best
chance for freezing temperatures and frost centered on Sunday
morning across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas.
- Mostly pleasant, unseasonably cool, and dry weather expected
through the weekend.
- A gradual warming trend develops next week under persistent dry
weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
High pressure, centered over Missouri, remains over the region
overnight, providing light to calm winds. Low clouds have been
persistent across NW AR Friday evening, with a more expansive deck
of low clouds present over MO and SE KS. Near-term guidance suggests
these low clouds will gradually expand back across E OK through the
overnight hours. Meanwhile, high clouds will increase over the
region, downstream of an upper low located in the desert SW. This
provides a complicated temperature forecast for the FA overnight,
with implications for the fog and frost potential. Any locations
across N OK/ NW AR which remain or become cloud-free for a period
tonight would likely experience effective radiational cooling.
This could permit temperatures to fall as low as 33 to 36 degrees,
particularly in the typical cold drainage areas. Given moist soil
conditions from recent rainfall, patchy frost development may
also occur in these areas. Fog potential remains uncertain, but
along a similar line of thinking, may develop where effective
radiational cooling/mostly clear skies exist.
The latest expectation is that low clouds will persist across NW AR,
limiting frost potential and keeping any fog from becoming too dense.
This would also imply warmer overnight lows in the 40s. Across NE
OK, where low clouds had cleared earlier in the day, frost and fog
potential is higher. Indeed many reporting sites have already
observed temperatures in the mid-upper 30s this evening, despite
increasing high clouds. Given this trend, have opted to include
patchy frost/fog mention for this part of the CWA through early
Saturday morning. This is especially true across portions of Osage
and Pawnee counties, where guidance fills in with low clouds last.
Any fog that does develop is likely to erode by mid morning.
Similar to Friday, low clouds may have a difficult time dissipating
during the day, especially given increased high level cloudiness.
However, a gradual clearing trend should eventually be observed. Any
areas that clear relatively quickly may warm well into the 60s,
while those remaining under cloud cover will probably struggle to
warm out of the 50s. Latest data holds onto clouds the longest
across NE OK and NW AR. All in all, it should be another low-impact
fall day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
High pressure remains in place Saturday night and Sunday morning.
This will provide another chilly night, with additional frost and/or
fog potential expected for NE OK and NW AR. In fact, a brief freeze
will be possible for the typical colder spots along the OK-KS border
and in far NW AR as winds go calm. This potential will need to be
monitored, and a Freeze Warning may be needed. Given these
conditions, at least a brief period of patchy freezing fog cannot be
ruled out Sunday morning.
Dry conditions are favored early next week as high pressure remains
in the area before drifting southeast. This will permit a return of
southerly winds on Monday with warming temperatures. A few isolated
showers are possible across SE OK on Tuesday as an upper low moves
along the Red River, but any rainfall will remain light. By midweek,
a cold front will push through the region, bringing temperatures
back down to average and perhaps sparking some precipitation over
eastern portions of the FA. From here, deep troughing develops over
the E CONUS through the end of the week w/ sfc high pressure over
the CWA. This is likely to keep the area dry and cool through
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Ceilings and visibilities at this hour across the region continue
to improve as low-level mixing erodes the lingering stratus and
fog. Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated between 18-20Z and
should prevail through this evening. Wind become nearly calm after
sunset, which will set up the potential for additional fog
between midnight and sunrise Sunday morning. At this time,
confidence is high enough to include light fog potential at each
TAF site, though onset and duration are slightly different at each
site. Exact density and coverage are still uncertain at this time
and will likely need to be adjusted over the next couple of TAF
packages. Once fog erodes Sunday morning, VFR will prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 36 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 64 39 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 63 35 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 59 32 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 62 32 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 60 38 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 60 34 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 58 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
F10 61 34 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 68 45 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for
OKZ055>071-154-254-354.
AR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday for
ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20261107T1725.txt
