Home
035
FXUS64 KTSA 161124
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- High heat stress conditions continue through Sunday.
- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
fuels and periods of gusty winds.
- A weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances and
slightly cooler temperatures late this afternoon into Monday.
Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of
temperatures will be minor.
- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
of slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Warm overnight temperatures will lead into another hot and humid
day across the region. Widespread triple digit temps are once
again expected across the area with heat headlines in place
through the afternoon. An upper trough moving through the northern
state will push a weak frontal boundary into northeast Oklahoma
late in the afternoon. Moisture pooling along the boundary could
lead to some more extreme heat index values in isolated locations
through the mid to late afternoon as the heat stress impacts
build. In addition, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along and just behind the boundary as it slowly sags
southward through the evening. Not everyone will see a storm, but
at least a few storms should bring some much needed rainfall to
parts of the area. High T/Td spreads, leading to deep inverted V
profiles will favor some strong downburst wind potential with the
stronger updrafts. The highest rain chances will stay north of
I-40 through the late afternoon and evening Sunday.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Any lingering storms should begin to wane after sunset Sunday.
Storms developing across the High Plains Sunday afternoon could
move east and affect parts of northeast Oklahoma late Sunday night
into Monday morning while weakening. A good gradient in
temperatures is expected on Monday, with relatively cooler weather
with some clouds north of the boundary, possibly stopping the 100
degree streak for Tulsa and surrounding areas, while temperatures
remain near and in excess of 100 degrees to the south. Widely
scattered storm development is again forecast along the boundary
Monday afternoon, with higher chances shifting near and south of
I-40 through Monday evening. Again, strong downburst winds will
be possible with the strongest storms. Meaningful rainfall will
remain spotty at best with many locations not seeing much in the
way of rainfall totals through Monday night.
The boundary loses definition by Tuesday as the upper ridge
intensifies over the Southern Plains and a return to very hot
temperatures and heat headlines areawide. Guidance continues to
indicate the ridge shifting westward by mid week with another
front approaching the region by late in the day Wednesday.
Ahead of this boundary, Wednesday could be the hottest day of the
year as a very strong low level thermal ridge sets up over
northeast Oklahoma while southwesterly downslope flow enhances
warming through the region. High temperatures of 105 plus degrees
could be common Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma.
The passing front brings at least some slightly cooler
temperatures and more rain chances to parts of the area, though
the forecast still remains fairly hot and mostly dry through the
period. A few days on the fringes of northwesterly flow aloft will
maintain some low rain chances into the weekend, but widespread
meaningful rainfall still appears sparse and drought will likely
persist or intensify over much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. The ridge looks to shift back over the Southern Plains
by late next weekend maintaining hot and dry conditions.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast through the
majority of the TAF period as a weak frontal boundary sags into
the CWA this afternoon and tonight. Low storm chances develop
along and near the boundary mid/late afternoon and remain forecast
into the overnight hours over mainly northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Will continue Prob30 groups for timing of the
greater potential. Gusty to locally strong downburst winds are the
main threat within the stronger convection. Winds start the
period out of the south, becomes westerly as the boundary
approaches, and then to northwest/northerly behind the frontal
passage. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast
through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 104 77 97 76 / 20 30 20 10
FSM 104 78 102 75 / 10 10 30 30
MLC 104 78 102 75 / 0 10 30 20
BVO 104 72 95 70 / 20 30 20 10
FYV 101 75 96 72 / 20 30 20 20
BYV 100 74 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 103 75 99 73 / 20 20 20 20
MIO 101 73 93 72 / 30 30 10 10
F10 104 75 100 73 / 20 20 20 20
HHW 101 77 104 77 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-068-
069-075-154-172-254-276-376.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-
071-073-074-176-272-354.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-229.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for ARZ129-219-220.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ129-219-220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260816T1124.txt
227
FXUS64 KTSA 160543
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- High heat stress conditions continue through Sunday.
- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
fuels and periods of gusty winds.
- A weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances and
slightly cooler temperatures late this afternoon into Monday.
Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of
temperatures will be minor.
- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
of slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Warm overnight temperatures will lead into another hot and humid
day across the region. Widespread triple digit temps are once
again expected across the area with heat headlines in place
through the afternoon. An upper trough moving through the northern
state will push a weak frontal boundary into northeast Oklahoma
late in the afternoon. Moisture pooling along the boundary could
lead to some more extreme heat index values in isolated locations
through the mid to late afternoon as the heat stress impacts
build. In addition, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along and just behind the boundary as it slowly sags
southward through the evening. Not everyone will see a storm, but
at least a few storms should bring some much needed rainfall to
parts of the area. High T/Td spreads, leading to deep inverted V
profiles will favor some strong downburst wind potential with the
stronger updrafts. The highest rain chances will stay north of
I-40 through the late afternoon and evening Sunday.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Any lingering storms should begin to wane after sunset Sunday.
Storms developing across the High Plains Sunday afternoon could
move east and affect parts of northeast Oklahoma late Sunday night
into Monday morning while weakening. A good gradient in
temperatures is expected on Monday, with relatively cooler weather
with some clouds north of the boundary, possibly stopping the 100
degree streak for Tulsa and surrounding areas, while temperatures
remain near and in excess of 100 degrees to the south. Widely
scattered storm development is again forecast along the boundary
Monday afternoon, with higher chances shifting near and south of
I-40 through Monday evening. Again, strong downburst winds will
be possible with the strongest storms. Meaningful rainfall will
remain spotty at best with many locations not seeing much in the
way of rainfall totals through Monday night.
The boundary loses definition by Tuesday as the upper ridge
intensifies over the Southern Plains and a return to very hot
temperatures and heat headlines areawide. Guidance continues to
indicate the ridge shifting westward by mid week with another
front approaching the region by late in the day Wednesday.
Ahead of this boundary, Wednesday could be the hottest day of the
year as a very strong low level thermal ridge sets up over
northeast Oklahoma while southwesterly downslope flow enhances
warming through the region. High temperatures of 105 plus degrees
could be common Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma.
The passing front brings at least some slightly cooler
temperatures and more rain chances to parts of the area, though
the forecast still remains fairly hot and mostly dry through the
period. A few days on the fringes of northwesterly flow aloft will
maintain some low rain chances into the weekend, but widespread
meaningful rainfall still appears sparse and drought will likely
persist or intensify over much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. The ridge looks to shift back over the Southern Plains
by late next weekend maintaining hot and dry conditions.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Few to scattered mid and high clouds are forecast over the CWA
through Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak frontal boundary expected
to move into northeast Oklahoma mid/late afternoon. Max heating
interacting with the boundary will aid in isolated to widely
scattered storm potential through the evening hours for parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Will continue Prob30
group for KTUL/KRVS and far northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Strong
downburst winds are the main threat with the stronger storms.
Scattered to broken mid/high clouds are forecast Sunday evening.
Winds through the period remains southerly for most locations and
then transition to west and northwest behind the boundary. VFR
conditions are forecast outside of any convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 104 77 97 76 / 20 30 20 10
FSM 104 78 102 75 / 10 10 30 30
MLC 104 78 102 75 / 0 10 30 20
BVO 104 72 95 70 / 20 30 20 10
FYV 101 75 96 72 / 20 30 20 20
BYV 100 74 93 70 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 103 75 99 73 / 20 20 20 20
MIO 101 73 93 72 / 30 30 10 10
F10 104 75 100 73 / 20 20 20 20
HHW 101 77 104 77 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-068-
069-075-154-172-254-276-376.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-
071-073-074-176-272-354.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-229.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for ARZ129-219-220.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ129-219-220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260816T0543.txt
562
FXUS64 KTSA 160440
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- High heat stress conditions continue through Sunday.
- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
fuels and periods of gusty winds.
- A weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances and
slightly cooler temperatures late this afternoon into Monday.
Localized strong downburst winds possible. Any cooling of
temperatures will be minor.
- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
of slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Warm overnight temperatures will lead into another hot and humid
day across the region. Widespread triple digit temps are once
again expected across the area with heat headlines in place
through the afternoon. An upper trough moving through the northern
state will push a weak frontal boundary into northeast Oklahoma
late in the afternoon. Moisture pooling along the boundary could
lead to some more extreme heat index values in isolated locations
through the mid to late afternoon as the heat stress impacts
build. In addition, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along and just behind the boundary as it slowly sags
southward through the evening. Not everyone will see a storm, but
at least a few storms should bring some much needed rainfall to
parts of the area. High T/Td spreads, leading to deep inverted V
profiles will favor some strong downburst wind potential with the
stronger updrafts. The highest rain chances will stay north of
I-40 through the late afternoon and evening Sunday.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Any lingering storms should begin to wane after sunset Sunday.
Storms developing across the High Plains SUnday afternoon could
move east and affect parts of northeast Oklahoma late Sunday night
into Monday morning while weakening. A good gradient in
temperatures is expected on Monday, with relatively cooler weather
with some clouds north of the boundary, possibly stopping the 100
degree streak for Tulsa and surrounding areas, while temperatures
remain near and in excess of 100 degrees to the south. Widely
scattered storm development is again forecast along the boundary
Monday afternoon, with higher chances shifting near and south of
I-40 through Monday evening. Again, strong downburst winds will
be possible with the strongest storms. Meaningfull rainfall will
remain spotty at best with many locations not seeing much in the
way of rainfall totals through Monday night.
The boundary loses definition by Tuesday as the upper ridge
intensifies over the Southern Plains and a return to very hot
temperatures and heat headlines areawide. Guidance continues to
indicate the ridge shifting westward by mid week with another
frontal approaching the region by late in the day Wednesday.
Ahead of this boundary, Wednesday could be the hottest day of the
year as a very strong low level thermal ridge sets up over
northeast Oklahoma while southwesterly downslope flow enhances
warming through the region. High temperatures of 105 plus degrees
could be common Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma.
The passing front brings at least some slightly cooler
temperatures and more rain chances to parts of the area, though
the forecast still remains fairly hot and mostly dry through the
period. A few days on the fringes of northwesterly flow aloft will
maintain some low rain chances into the weekend, but widespread
meaningfull rainfall still appears sparse and drought will likely
persist or intensify over much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. The ridge looks to shift back over the Southern Plains
by late next weekend maintaining hot and dry conditions.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Near persistent hourly trends expected through Sunday morning.
Winds will then trend more westerly ahead of the weak frontal
boundary and eventually northerly across far NE OK. The boundary
will be a focus for isolated to scattered late afternoon storms
with somewhat higher chances from NE OK into far NW AR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 104 77 97 / 0 20 30 20
FSM 79 104 78 102 / 0 10 10 30
MLC 80 104 78 102 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 78 104 72 95 / 0 20 30 20
FYV 77 101 75 96 / 0 20 30 20
BYV 77 100 74 93 / 0 20 20 20
MKO 77 103 75 99 / 0 20 20 20
MIO 77 101 73 93 / 0 30 30 10
F10 77 104 75 100 / 0 20 20 20
HHW 78 101 77 104 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-068-069-
075-154-172-254-276-376.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-
071-073-074-176-272-354.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-229.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260816T0440.txt
041
FXUS64 KTSA 152311
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- High heat stress conditions continue through the weekend.
- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
fuels and periods of gusty winds.
- A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday
bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms and a minor
and brief cooldown. Localized strong downburst winds possible.
Any cooling of temperatures will be minor.
- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
of slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The prolonged heat wave engulfing the area extends into yet
another day, with widespread heat index values in the 105 to 110
range and parts of the area seeing 110 to 115 peak values once
again. Most of northeast Oklahoma and the I-40 corridor have been
upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning through 8 pm today, with the
remainder of the forecast area remaining in a Heat Advisory. The
Heat Advisory will stay in place overnight areawide, with low
temperatures once again expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
in most spots. Dew point and temperature trends indicate values
in much of the forecast area being at or above yesterdays levels,
with the exception being parts of Osage and Pawnee counties which
are feeling some influence of mid and high cloud cover. Given all
of this, there is increased confidence that heat index values
today will be similar to perhaps locally, just above yesterdays,
justifying the upgrade for today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and increasingly humid conditions remain likely on Sunday,
ahead of a weak cool front that will begin to make its way into
the area late Sunday and into Sunday night. Moisture is expected
to pool along the boundary by the afternoon and along with
temperatures that should be comparable to the last few days, heat
index values should be noticeably higher due to the locally higher
dew points. As such, the same areas that were upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning today were also upgraded for tomorrow from
Noon to 8 pm. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain expected
to develop late afternoon and into the evening in the vicinity of
the boundary in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
greater coverage likely just north and east of the area near a
disturbance. Forecast soundings support a low chance of locally
damaging winds during the afternoon with the stronger storms.
The front will sag southward tomorrow night and into Monday, with
low chances for showers and storms extending roughly to the I-40
corridor Monday afternoon. Noticeably cooler conditions should be
expected for the northern half of the forecast area Monday, with
parts of southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley hanging
on the extreme heat. Additional heat headlines will be needed for
some of the forecast area on Monday but with confidence low in the
exact northern cut off for that need, will push that decision
another shift or two in the future.
Very hot weather returns northward for Tuesday, with areawide
heat headlines likely needed into Wednesday. A very low chance of
another round of showers and thunderstorms in far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas exists Tuesday, although the
better potential remains north of the area. The NBM POPs have been
adjusted upward into the double digits but still below
mentionable.
Late in the week, models continue to show the upper level high
shifting westward, with periods of northwest flow developing
across the area. This would favor cooler temperatures and at least
a brief break in the triple digit heat in much of the area, as
well as shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble data do show a
continued wobble in where the high is centered, with occasional
extensions back into our area beyond the end of this forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Near persistent hourly trends expected through Sunday morning.
Winds will then trend more westerly ahead of the weak frontal
boundary and eventually northerly across far NE OK. The boundary
will be a focus for isolated to scattered late afternoon storms
with somewhat higher chances from NE OK into far NW AR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 104 77 96 / 0 20 30 20
FSM 80 104 78 102 / 0 10 10 20
MLC 80 104 77 102 / 0 0 10 20
BVO 77 102 71 95 / 0 20 20 20
FYV 75 100 75 97 / 0 30 20 20
BYV 76 100 74 93 / 0 30 30 20
MKO 78 103 74 97 / 0 30 20 20
MIO 78 101 72 93 / 0 30 30 20
F10 78 104 74 98 / 0 30 20 20
HHW 78 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-068-069-
075-154-172-254-276-376.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-
071-073-074-176-272-354.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-229.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
220.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
220.
Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260815T2311.txt
995
FXUS64 KTSA 151726
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- High heat stress conditions continue through the weekend.
- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
fuels and periods of gusty winds.
- A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday
bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms and a minor
and brief cooldown. Localized strong downburst winds possible.
Any cooling of temperatures will be minor.
- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
of slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The prolonged heat wave engulfing the area extends into yet
another day, with widespread heat index values in the 105 to 110
range and parts of the area seeing 110 to 115 peak values once
again. Most of northeast Oklahoma and the I-40 corridor have been
upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning through 8 pm today, with the
remainder of the forecast area remaining in a Heat Advisory. The
Heat Advisory will stay in place overnight areawide, with low
temperatures once again expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
in most spots. Dew point and temperature trends indicate values
in much of the forecast area being at or above yesterdays levels,
with the exception being parts of Osage and Pawnee counties which
are feeling some influence of mid and high cloud cover. Given all
of this, there is increased confidence that heat index values
today will be similar to perhaps locally, just above yesterdays,
justifying the upgrade for today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and increasingly humid conditions remain likely on Sunday,
ahead of a weak cool front that will begin to make its way into
the area late Sunday and into Sunday night. Moisture is expected
to pool along the boundary by the afternoon and along with
temperatures that should be comparable to the last few days, heat
index values should be noticeably higher due to the locally higher
dew points. As such, the same areas that were upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning today were also upgraded for tomorrow from
Noon to 8 pm. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain expected
to develop late afternoon and into the evening in the vicinity of
the boundary in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
greater coverage likely just north and east of the area near a
disturbance. Forecast soundings support a low chance of locally
damaging winds during the afternoon with the stronger storms.
The front will sag southward tomorrow night and into Monday, with
low chances for showers and storms extending roughly to the I-40
corridor Monday afternoon. Noticeably cooler conditions should be
expected for the northern half of the forecast area Monday, with
parts of southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley hanging
on the extreme heat. Additional heat headlines will be needed for
some of the forecast area on Monday but with confidence low in the
exact northern cut off for that need, will push that decision
another shift or two in the future.
Very hot weather returns northward for Tuesday, with areawide
heat headlines likely needed into Wednesday. A very low chance of
another round of showers and thunderstorms in far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas exists Tuesday, although the
better potential remains north of the area. The NBM POPs have been
adjusted upward into the double digits but still below
mentionable.
Late in the week, models continue to show the upper level high
shifting westward, with periods of northwest flow developing
across the area. This would favor cooler temperatures and at least
a brief break in the triple digit heat in much of the area, as
well as shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble data do show a
continued wobble in where the high is centered, with occasional
extensions back into our area beyond the end of this forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals. Afternoon Cu field present once again mainly from
southeast OK through northwest AR, with S winds gusting around 20
knots at times this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will
result in a shift to more SW-W winds at most locations Sunday
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 104 83 104 77 / 0 0 20 30
FSM 102 80 104 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 101 80 104 77 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 104 77 102 71 / 0 0 20 20
FYV 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 30 20
BYV 101 76 100 74 / 0 0 30 30
MKO 102 78 103 74 / 0 0 30 20
MIO 100 78 101 72 / 0 0 30 30
F10 101 78 104 74 / 0 0 30 20
HHW 100 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-068-069-
075-154-172-254-276-376.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday for
OKZ055>058-060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-229.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
220.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
220.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday for
ARZ129-219-220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260815T1726.txt
468
FXUS64 KTSA 151705
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- High heat stress conditions continue through the weekend.
- Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
fuels and periods of gusty winds.
- A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday
bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms and a minor
and brief cooldown. Localized strong downburst winds possible.
Any cooling of temperatures will be minor.
- Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
of slightly cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The prolonged heat wave engulfing the area extends into yet
another day, with widespread heat index values in the 105 to 110
range and parts of the area seeing 110 to 115 peak values once
again. Most of northeast Oklahoma and the I-40 corridor have been
upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning through 8 pm today, with the
remainder of the forecast area remaining in a Heat Advisory. The
Heat Advisory will stay in place overnight areawide, with low
temperatures once again expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
in most spots. Dew point and temperature trends indicate values
in much of the forecast area being at or above yesterdays levels,
with the exception being parts of Osage and Pawnee counties which
are feeling some influence of mid and high cloud cover. Given all
of this, there is increased confidence that heat index values
today will be similar to perhaps locally, just above yesterdays,
justifying the upgrade for today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and increasingly humid conditions remain likely on Sunday,
ahead of a weak cool front that will begin to make its way into
the area late Sunday and into Sunday night. Moisture is expected
to pool along the boundary by the afternoon and along with
temperatures that should be comparable to the last few days, heat
index values should be noticeably higher due to the locally higher
dew points. As such, the same areas that were upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning today were also upgraded for tomorrow from
Noon to 8 pm. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain expected
to develop late afternoon and into the evening in the vicinity of
the boundary in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
greater coverage likely just north and east of the area near a
disturbance. Forecast soundings support a low chance of locally
damaging winds during the afternoon with the stronger storms.
The front will sag southward tomorrow night and into Monday, with
low chances for showers and storms extending roughly to the I-40
corridor Monday afternoon. Noticeably cooler conditions should be
expected for the northern half of the forecast area Monday, with
parts of southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley hanging
on the extreme heat. Additional heat headlines will be needed for
some of the forecast area on Monday but with confidence low in the
exact northern cut off for that need, will push that decision
another shift or two in the future.
Very hot weather returns northward for Tuesday, with areawide
heat headlines likely needed into Wednesday. A very low chance of
another round of showers and thunderstorms in far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas exists Tuesday, although the
better potential remains north of the area. The NBM POPs have been
adjusted upward into the double digits but still below
mentionable.
Late in the week, models continue to show the upper level high
shifting westward, with periods of northwest flow developing
across the area. This would favor cooler temperatures and at least
a brief break in the triple digit heat in much of the area, as
well as shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble data do show a
continued wobble in where the high is centered, with occasional
extensions back into our area beyond the end of this forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Passing high clouds and few to scattered mid clouds are forecast
over the CWA today before high clouds increase tonight in advance
of a surface boundary sagging southward. Winds through the period
remain southerly for most locations, with the exception of KFSM
where more variable winds are anticipated this morning and again
overnight tonight. VFR conditions should prevail through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 104 83 104 77 / 0 0 20 30
FSM 102 80 104 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 101 80 104 77 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 104 77 102 71 / 0 0 20 20
FYV 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 30 20
BYV 101 76 100 74 / 0 0 30 30
MKO 102 78 103 74 / 0 0 30 20
MIO 100 78 101 72 / 0 0 30 30
F10 101 78 104 74 / 0 0 30 20
HHW 100 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-068-069-
075-154-172-254-276-376.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-
060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday for
OKZ055>058-060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-229.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
220.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
220.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday for
ARZ129-219-220.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260815T1705.txt
