822 
ACUS11 KWNS 072157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072156 
FLZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of west-central FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072156Z - 080030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and a brief tornado are possible
this evening.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster has intensified this afternoon across
the northeast Gulf, where an offshore buoy recently reported a gust
of 52 kt at 2050 UTC. This storm cluster appears to be accompanied
by a midlevel vorticity maximum and surface low, as evidenced by
rather strong pressure falls at the buoy preceding the severe gust.
Downstream of this storm cluster, modest destabilization has
occurred across central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula,
along and south of a baroclinic zone draped from near/south of Tampa
eastward to just south of Cape Canaveral. 

Weak lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z TBW sounding) will tend to
limit instability across the peninsula into this evening. However,
any organized storm structures that approach the coast, or develop
inland near the boundary, may be able to persist within the
favorably moist environment near and south of the baroclinic zone. A
substantial increase in 0-2 km AGL flow has recently been noted in
the KTBW VWP, which will also aid in maintenance of any organized
cells/clusters, and provide sufficient effective SRH for low-level
rotation. 

A brief tornado will be possible near and south of the surface
boundary, where at least weak surface-based buoyancy will persist
through the evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds will also be
possible, especially with any of the stronger offshore storm
structures as they approach the coast later this evening.

..Dean/Smith.. 12/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   28368332 28248220 28138168 27708170 26928200 26718206
            26948288 27428366 28368332 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20251207T2157.txt



176 
ACUS11 KWNS 070054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070054 
IAZ000-070400-

Mesoscale Discussion 2251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Areas affected...central Iowa

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 070054Z - 070400Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow to continue across portions of
central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Occasional rates 1"/hr
with heavier bands.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and surface observations suggest moderate
to heavy snow continues across portions of central Iowa. This is
occurring near the surface low and in the region of strong DPVA
aloft overspreading central Iowa. Two regions that will favor heavy
snow (possible 1"/hr rates) over the next couple of hours are near
the zone of 700-850 mb frontogenesis across central Iowa north of
Des Moines and in a smaller mesoscale sector along and south of I-80
and trending eastward of I-35 where a more narrow band of heavy snow
has developed.  Guidance indicates a gradual downward trend in
snowfall rates is expected through the late evening/early morning
Sunday. However, periods of locally moderate snow may continue at
times across northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern
Illinois.

..Thornton.. 12/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41659462 41259415 40959400 40789385 40689358 40719337
            40909298 41079272 41409255 42279223 42579245 42759301
            42839358 42509421 41659462 


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20251207T0054.txt