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179
ACUS11 KWNS 160713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160713
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160915-
Mesoscale Discussion 1994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Areas affected...Parts of northern KS and southern NE into northwest
MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160713Z - 160915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible overnight.
DISCUSSION...An MCS is moving across north-central KS towards
south-central NE early this morning. Relatively strong inbound
velocities (45-55 kt) are noted at 1-2 km AGL from KUEX along the
gust front, though recent measured gusts have generally been
sub-severe. Low-level warm advection and a plume of large PW
(near/above 2 inches) to the north of a front draped across southern
KS may help to sustain this system through at least part of the
overnight, though rather weak mid/upper-level flow, modest effective
shear, and unfavorable low-level lapse rates may tend to keep any
severe-gust threat localized.
Additional storms may continue to develop in advance of the MCS
across northeast KS into northwest MO, within the warm-advection
regime north of the front. The large PW will support localized
downburst potential within this regime as well, though the elevated
nature of the convection and generally modest effective shear are
expected to limit the coverage and magnitude of the threat.
..Dean/Mosier.. 08/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39889941 40409903 40669840 40629512 40189300 39629254
39279292 39199378 39109646 38999687 38869741 38679794
38669832 39079838 39419856 39889941
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260816T0713.txt
876
ACUS11 KWNS 160123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160123
OHZ000-160300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...parts of central OH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160123Z - 160300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A low-topped miniature supercell over central OH may
continue for another hour or two this evening. A brief tornado
remains possible. A Watch is currently not expected.
DISCUSSION...As of 0120 UTC, the Dayton, OH TDWR and KILN NEXRAD
showed a miniature supercell over Champaign County, OH. This storm
is ongoing within a broader cluster of low-topped convection near a
remnant MCV across central OH. The environment is not particularly
unstable (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), but is very moist, with dewpoints
in the mid 70s F. This is supporting low cloud bases amid enlarged
low-level hodographs ahead of the MCV. SPC mesoanalysis shows ESRH
of 100-200 m2/s2 across central OH which could support occasional
low-level rotation despite much weaker deep-layer shear.
This storm has displayed intermittent low-level mesocyclones and
potentially produced a brief tornado earlier this evening from
public reports. The modestly supportive environment and cellular
storm mode suggest a brief tornado or two will remain possible as
the storm moves eastward over the next couple of hours. However, the
lack of stronger deep-layer shear and weak buoyancy favor only
intermittent intensification. Increasing inhibition is also expected
to slowly diminish the threat later this evening. Given the brief
and localized nature of the threat, a Watch is not anticipated.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39908358 39948367 40038385 40138395 40328388 40498347
40318269 40168257 39938256 39808272 39808287 39908358
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260816T0123.txt
909
ACUS11 KWNS 152308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152308
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-160115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern Colorado/Wyoming into western Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584...
Valid 152308Z - 160115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW584.
DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms and a few more isolated
supercells continue within WW584. A supercell near Denver had
reports of 64 mph winds and hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter.
Large hail and damaging wind will continue to be possible with
supercells through the early evening, given moderate instability and
35-45 kts of effective shear. With cell interactions, mode is
gradually shifting to become more clustered/multi-cell this evening.
Guidance suggests that one or more clusters may evolve eastward into
western Kansas through the evening.
Downstream across western Kansas, steep low to mid-level lapse
rates, temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F, and dew points in
the upper 60s to 70s are supporting moderate to strong instability,
though lingering inhibition remains. Should a cluster be able to
organize along a cold pool and shift eastward, damaging wind
potential may increase into the evening. A downstream watch will
probably be needed into western Kansas later this evening.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...
LAT...LON 36910425 37550483 39000497 40280485 42560523 42940498
42990396 43020344 42950284 42410274 40780274 40530261
40120222 40100201 39680174 38940154 38330145 37650138
37050146 36920174 37010218 36950353 36910425
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T2308.txt
177
ACUS11 KWNS 152102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152102
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-152300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...south-central and southeast IA...north-central and
northeast Missouri...and west-central Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152102Z - 152300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe weather may
increase across the area late this afternoon into evening.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.
DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed along the IA-MO
border, near Centerville, IA along a residual outflow boundary that
extends into west-central IL. A very moist boundary-layer exists in
the vicinity of the surface front with dewpoints into the mid 70s to
lower 80s, which are contributing to MLCAPE of 3000-3500+ J/kg, per
latest objective analysis. Forcing associated with a remnant MCV may
be contributing to the storm development with the current EAX VWP
indicating 30-35 kt of westerly flow in the mid levels, suggestive
of at least modest vertical shear. As such, some potential for
isolated severe weather appears to exist, mainly in the form of
locally damaging wind gusts, should sustained storms persist late
this afternoon into evening.
..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40419332 41019328 41159192 40829093 40359086 39969106
39899165 40189293 40419332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T2102.txt
917
ACUS11 KWNS 152056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152056
OHZ000-INZ000-152300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of far eastern Indiana into far western
Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152056Z - 152300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado exists across portions of far eastern
Indiana into western Ohio. The need for a watch remains unclear.
DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating downstream of an MCV readily
apparent in observation data has allowed surface temperatures to
warm into the low 80s F across portions of eastern IN/western OH,
with latest objective analysis depicting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
across this area. While some inhibition remains, deepening cumulus
are noted in some areas of clearer skies. Recent CAM guidance
continues to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development may
occur in the next 1-3 hours across this region as ascent downstream
of the approaching MCV continues to overspread the region. Should
this occur, enhanced mid-level flow (sampled by the IND VWP) would
be sufficient to support at least transient supercell structures
should storms develop. In this scenario, poor low- and mid-level
lapse rates would likely temper overall convective intensity, but
modestly enhanced low-level shear and backing low-level flow
(sampled by the ILN VWP) may support a conditional risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. This scenario
remains uncertain, but trends will continue to be monitored for
potential watch issuance.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 41148467 41088390 40678314 40258296 39838314 39648352
39648428 39888474 40288492 40888495 41148467
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T2056.txt
090
ACUS11 KWNS 152026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152025
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1989
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...the Oklahoma
Panhandle...and southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152025Z - 152300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly severe wind
gusts, potentially up to 70-80 mph, is expected to increase across
the discussion area late this afternoon into evening. An additional
watch is possible to the east/southeast of the recently issued
severe thunderstorm watch 584 in effect across southeast Colorado.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and adjacent Raton Mesa with a deepening cumulus field
noted along a warm front from southwest KS into the OK and TX
Panhandles. The 18Z DDC and AMA soundings modified for current
surface conditions exhibit steep environmental lapse rates
(especially in the low levels) with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.
Continued daytime heating should allow for further air mass
destabilization with the strongest instability forecast north of the
front from far southeast CO into southwest KS.
Latest CAM guidance suggests the storms developing along the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains will gradually grow upscale into one or multiple
clusters later this afternoon into evening while moving/developing
east into the High Plains. The recently issued severe thunderstorm
watch 584 accounts for the large hail and severe wind gust potential
with that regime. Additional storms will also be possible along the
surface boundary from the northern TX into OK Panhandles and
southwest KS, with some model signal for the separate regimes to
merge across southwest KS this evening. Severe wind gusts,
potentially up to 70-80 mph, appear to be the primary hazard with
the latter regime, and convective trends are being monitored for an
additional severe thunderstorm watch.
..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36960469 37880474 38370384 38200186 38200122 38129996
37479956 36959991 36690083 36550182 36520296 36530373
36700457 36960469
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T2026.txt
611
ACUS11 KWNS 151929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151928
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-152130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado into far
southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 151928Z - 152130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts is expected to increase this afternoon into
evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and lightning data indicate
thunderstorms developing over the central Rockies, including the CO
Front Range, with additional storms noted over central into
northeast WY, and the far northwest NE Panhandle. More widespread
cloud cover has slowed daytime heating across portions of the
adjacent High Plains, where latest objective analysis indicates
lingering convective inhibition. However, continued daytime heating
should allow the cap to weaken, thereby allowing storms to advance
into the High Plains, amidst a steep lapse rate environment
featuring MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. When coupled with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, the setup will support multicell and some
supercell storm modes capable of mainly large hail initially. Latest
CAM guidance continues to suggest that storms will grow upscale into
clusters this evening with an associated increase in severe wind
gust potential.
..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39230558 41060562 43250564 43430501 43280389 42600341
42220297 40760240 39940260 39500307 39300380 39180462
39230558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T1929.txt
074
ACUS11 KWNS 151808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151808
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-152015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...southwest Ohio into northeast Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 151808Z - 152015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm potential appears to be increasing
across the area. Convective trends are being monitored for a
possible watch.
DISCUSSION...Renewed thunderstorm development is underway along the
southern flank of a recently decayed nocturnal MCS from south of
Wilmington to the Cincinnati vicinity. Stronger heating along the
southern periphery of the residual cloud canopy has allowed
temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s, which, coupled
with dewpoints in the mid 70s, is yielding MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg.
Stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear remain displaced to
the northwest of the area, in closer proximity to an MCV over
northwest IN, leading to uncertainty in the extent of the severe
storm threat in the near term. However, the character of the
thermodynamic environment suggests some potential for locally
damaging wind gusts with the current storms this afternoon over the
next 1-2 hours.
A comparatively greater severe storm risk may materialize later this
afternoon into evening with the arrival of the stronger forcing for
ascent and vertical shear. Between now and then, convective trends
are being monitored for signs of storm organization, which would
warrant consideration of a watch issuance.
..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 38898514 39228461 39548392 39648354 39628300 39368276
38938272 38588311 38438360 38428443 38558511 38898514
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T1808.txt
973
ACUS11 KWNS 151725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151725
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-152000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge...including
the Great Smoky Mountains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151725Z - 152000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of locally damaging winds appear
possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. The areal
coverage of the threat is expected to remain too limited to warrant
a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate a gradual
increase in thunderstorm activity early this afternoon from the
Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge, including the Great Smoky
Mountains. In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, it
appears daytime heating of a moist and moderately to strongly
unstable air mass (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg - per latest objective
analysis) is contributing to this development. Regional VWPs
indicate rather weak vertical shear, which should limit the degree
of storm organization with pulse-type storm modes expected.
Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of locally damaging winds appear
possible with the strongest storms, owing to the potential for
effective water loading of convective downdrafts.
..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
LAT...LON 35628489 36668420 37718390 38148331 37088146 36838099
36298083 35358187 34588318 34278430 34808474 35628489
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T1725.txt
426
ACUS11 KWNS 151702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151702
NCZ000-SCZ000-151900-
Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...central and northeast South Carolina into southeast
North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151702Z - 151900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of locally damaging wind gusts appear
possible this afternoon. The areal coverage of the threat is
expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a
deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm development along
and ahead of a weak front settling south through southeast NC and
northern SC. Modification of the 12Z CHS sounding for current
surface conditions yields a moderate to strongly unstable
environment with MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg. The air mass is quite
moist with PW of around 2.4 inches, suggesting the likelihood for
downdraft enhancement via water loading with an attendant risk for
damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear is quite weak, which will limit
the degree of storm organization and longevity, likely resulting in
an isolated areal coverage of the severe risk.
..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34228131 34648150 34968130 34778058 34677987 34647932
34687855 34697800 34657768 34067766 33687799 33627862
33357883 33167932 33778116 34228131
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260815T1702.txt
