570 
ACUS11 KWNS 080038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080037 
WAZ000-080230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern Washington State

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080037Z - 080230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow low-topped convective band will move onshore late
this afternoon and this evening with the potential for isolated
strong to severe wind gusts. Some isolated risk is possible, but a
WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Evening radar imagery showed a narrow forced convective
band was gradually more organized off the WA coast. Likely tied to
the surface cold front, strong ascent from an upper trough and
strong jet streak will approach the coast over the next couple of
hours. KLGX VAD data and recent RAOB shows that wind fields are
strengthening ahead of the line with 50-70 kt south/southwesterly
flow prevalent in the lowest 1-3 km. Despite meager buoyancy (MUCAPE
100-200 J/kg) and little to no lightning, the strong forcing for
ascent and moist adiabatic/neutrally stable low-level lapse rates
will likely be sufficient to maintain the convective band as it
moves onshore. Convectively enhanced downdrafts may allow for some
of this strong flow to reach the surface with strong to severe
gusts, possibly focused in/near the higher terrain.

More isolated convective cells may eventually develop behind the
band and move onshore through this evening as much colder
temperatures aloft steepen low-level lapse rates. Reinforcement of
the weak buoyancy will develop in the steeper lapse rate
environment, where perhaps isolated lightning flashes will be
possible. Still, the weak buoyancy will very likely limit convective
intensity, and a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SEW...

LAT...LON   48352479 48452468 48342403 48262342 48122275 47962268
            47712262 47522267 47362290 47132334 47092355 46982420
            47222433 47662450 47942477 48352479 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20261108T0038.txt