Home
673
FXUS64 KOUN 161110
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
- Precipitation chances this afternoon into Monday near and north
of a cold front.
- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow north,
but heat persists in the south.
- Dangerous heat continues through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Initial cold front has moved into northwest Oklahoma, but the
forward progress will slow down through the day. Temperatures will
still be warm behind the front, but at least nudge them down below
heat advisory criteria in the northwest.
The convection early this morning remains well northwest of the
forecast area. Scattered storms are expected to develop near and
north of the front this afternoon, and continue into the evening.
The spread between the temperature and dewpoint will be quite high
again today, forecast soundings show an inverted-V sounding and
forecast downdraft CAPE is progged to be quite high (seeing some
1500 J/kg in some of the HRRR forecast soundings). Therefore
thunderstorms that do become strong will have the potential of
producing isolated areas of severe/damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
The cold front will settle a little farther south tonight and
Monday. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-upper 90s across
northern Oklahoma, but it will still be hot in areas south of the
cold front. A Heat Advisory will be needed Monday across the
south, but the specific geography will depend on where the front
will be on Monday afternoon, so we will wait to issue the advisory
until we have more clarity on that.
Scattered storms are expected to redevelop near and north of the
front again on Monday afternoon. Again strong to potentially
severe storms producing strong winds will be possible with these
storms in the afternoon and evening.
The reprieve from the very hot conditions in the north with this
front will be short-lived as this airmass washes out/retreats and
hot temperatures are expected areawide again on Tuesday.
Dry south-southwest winds will bring very low relative humidity
(less than 20%) across the western half of the area. This will
create a widespread area of elevated fire weather conditions,
although fortunately the winds are not currently expected to be
strong enough to nudge into near-critical levels.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
The operational runs of the medium-range models are still
suggesting a shift in the pattern with the upper ridge amplifying
in the west and troughing developing from the Great Lakes toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow aloft over the
Plains. With this shift, the operational models bring a cold
front into the area Wednesday night. The main surge of the cooler
airmass pushes into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, so there is still
a question how much cooler the air would be for us. NBM is still
not fully capturing the potential of this cold front has keeps hot
temperatures in most areas late into the week. If there continues
to be consistency in the forecast pattern shift, forecast
temperatures would likely be not-as-hot as the current forecast.
But the ECWMF keeps 594-595 dm 500 mb heights over the forecast
area and then pushes the ridge toward the southern Plains by
Saturday, so this pattern may not bring significant cooling or any
cooling could again be short-lived. We'll continue to watch the
trends over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
All terminals expected to remain in a VFR category at least
through 22Z. There is a 30% probability for thunderstorm activity
which could impact all of our terminals generally near to north of
the I-40 corridor between 22-06Z at terminals KOKC & KOUN although
probabilities could linger to the end of the forecast period at
KSWO, KPNC, KCSM, and KWWR. Not expecting very low ceilings with
this convection but mainly brief reduced visibilities in rain as
well as strong variable winds should any storms move over one of
these terminals. A weak cold front stretched across northwestern
OK will gradually push into central Oklahoma before stalling out
with a northerly wind shift behind this boundary. Wind speeds
fairly weak behind the front up to 10 kts and only expecting gusts
up to 15 kts through 18Z. However should the aforementioned
convection develop outflow boundaries could start producing
variable mesoscale gusty winds across the terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103 75 99 74 / 20 20 30 20
Hobart OK 104 74 103 74 / 20 20 20 10
Wichita Falls TX 104 77 106 77 / 10 0 10 10
Gage OK 96 68 96 70 / 10 40 30 20
Ponca City OK 99 73 93 72 / 10 40 30 10
Durant OK 104 78 106 77 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260816T1110.txt
248
FXUS64 KOUN 160717
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
- Precipitation chances this afternoon into Monday near and north
of a cold front.
- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today and tomorrow north,
but heat persists in the south.
- Dangerous heat continues through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Initial cold front has moved into northwest Oklahoma, but the
forward progress will slow down through the day. Temperatures will
still be warm behind the front, but at least nudge them down below
heat advisory criteria in the northwest.
The convection early this morning remains well northwest of the
forecast area. Scattered storms are expected to develop near and
north of the front this afternoon, and continue into the evening.
The spread between the temperature and dewpoint will be quite high
again today, forecast soundings show an inverted-V sounding and
forecast downdraft CAPE is progged to be quite high (seeing some
1500 J/kg in some of the HRRR forecast soundings). Therefore
thunderstorms that do become strong will have the potential of
producing isolated areas of severe/damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
The cold front will settle a little farther south tonight and
Monday. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-upper 90s across
northern Oklahoma, but it will still be hot in areas south of the
cold front. A Heat Advisory will be needed Monday across the
south, but the specific geography will depend on where the front
will be on Monday afternoon, so we will wait to issue the advisory
until we have more clarity on that.
Scattered storms are expected to redevelop near and north of the
front again on Monday afternoon. Again strong to potentially
severe storms producing strong winds will be possible with these
storms in the afternoon and evening.
The reprieve from the very hot conditions in the north with this
front will be short-lived as this airmass washes out/retreats and
hot temperatures are expected areawide again on Tuesday.
Dry south-southwest winds will bring very low relative humidity
(less than 20%) across the western half of the area. This will
create a widespread area of elevated fire weather conditions,
although fortunately the winds are not currently expected to be
strong enough to nudge into near-critical levels.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
The operational runs of the medium-range models are still
suggesting a shift in the pattern with the upper ridge amplifying
in the west and troughing developing from the Great Lakes toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley bringing northwest flow aloft over the
Plains. With this shift, the operational models bring a cold
front into the area Wednesday night. The main surge of the cooler
airmass pushes into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, so there is still
a question how much cooler the air would be for us. NBM is still
not fully capturing the potential of this cold front has keeps hot
temperatures in most areas late into the week. If there continues
to be consistency in the forecast pattern shift, forecast
temperatures would likely be not-as-hot as the current forecast.
But the ECWMF keeps 594-595 dm 500 mb heights over the forecast
area and then pushes the ridge toward the southern Plains by
Saturday, so this pattern may not bring significant cooling or any
cooling could again be short-lived. We'll continue to watch the
trends over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A summer cold
front will make its way to the I-40 corridor by tomorrow
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this
frontal boundary during the afternoon and evening timeframe, and
strong winds will be possible with the strongest storms that
develop.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103 75 99 74 / 20 20 30 20
Hobart OK 104 74 103 74 / 20 20 20 10
Wichita Falls TX 104 77 106 77 / 10 0 10 10
Gage OK 96 68 96 70 / 10 40 30 20
Ponca City OK 99 73 93 72 / 10 40 30 10
Durant OK 104 78 106 77 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ085-086-089-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260816T0717.txt
376
FXUS64 KOUN 160308
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
Sunday, with chances increasing and expanding over the northern
half of Oklahoma Sunday and Sunday night.
- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme
heat for northern Oklahoma Monday.
- Dangerous heat continues through the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Another very hot afternoon across Oklahoma and western north Texas,
where a Heat Advisory continues for all of western, central and
southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas through 7pm this evening
and then continues for all but the western row or two of counties
tonight and through the day Sunday.
In addition, the combination of very dry vegetation and drought
along with the extreme heat will result in elevated fire weather
this afternoon into the early evening hours across portions of the
area. There could also be a concern if any convection develops in
northwest Oklahoma with the potential for lightning caused fire
starts.
Speaking of convection, a surface "cold" front will move into
southwest Kansas by this afternoon, which will be a focus for storm
development later today. Although much of the convective activity is
expected to remain north and west of the area, if a storm is able to
move into northwest Oklahoma, it will pose a threat for damaging
wind gusts.
The low-end risk for convection will continue tonight across far
northwest Oklahoma, but the risk of severe weather will diminish as
we go deeper into the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
associated front will also slide a bit further south overnight and
is expected to be located near a Ponca City to Elk City line by
morning.
A reason that we will keep the advisory going is because of the lack
of any real relief overnight as many locations are expected to only
drop into the lower 80s by Sunday morning. Northwest Oklahoma may
get a bit of a break as they will be to the north of the front for a
good portion of the overnight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The aforementioned front will approach I-40 Sunday afternoon with
slightly less hot conditions across far northern Oklahoma, but still
all but far northwest Oklahoma will likely climb above 100 degrees.
In addition will continue to have a Heat Advisory for all but
western portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas, where
temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain just below
advisory criteria.
By Sunday afternoon, along and north of the front there will be at
least a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Keep fingers crossed that some areas could see at
least a little rain and no strong wind gusts to go along with it. If
any storms do develop, will need to be mindful of dry lightning and
possible fire starts associated with those strikes.
Models do show the front pushing into southern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday morning and at least a low chance of precip continuing
at least across northern into central Oklahoma Monday morning. The
front will begin to lift back to the north during the day Monday
with rain chances diminishing through the day and likely confined to
far northern Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.
The front should give a bit of reprieve of excessive heat and
keeping the potential for any heat headlines confined to southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The hot temperatures will spread back north on Tuesday as the
front dissipates and southerly flow returns across the area.
The operational medium-range models and many of the ensemble
members are now trending toward the upper ridge shifting to the
west and northwest flow aloft developing over the central and
southern Plains by late in the week, so we may be trending toward
seeing some lower temperatures late in the week. NBM still keeps
temperature higher late next week than this pattern would suggest,
but that will start catching up if this signal shows more run-to-
run consistency. Despite the model trend showing this potential of
shifting to northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances
associated with this shift are still a little uncertain and
dependent on how much of the ridge still reaches into the southern
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A summer cold
front will make its way to the I-40 corridor by tomorrow
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this
frontal boundary during the afternoon and evening timeframe, and
strong winds will be possible with the strongest storms that
develop.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 102 74 97 / 0 30 20 20
Hobart OK 77 104 73 101 / 0 20 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 78 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 71 96 67 95 / 10 20 60 20
Ponca City OK 77 100 72 93 / 0 20 30 20
Durant OK 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260816T0308.txt
426
FXUS64 KOUN 152249
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
549 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
Sunday, with chances increasing and expanding over the northern
half of Oklahoma Sunday and Sunday night.
- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme
heat for northern Oklahoma Monday.
- Dangerous heat continues through the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Another very hot afternoon across Oklahoma and western north Texas,
where a Heat Advisory continues for all of western, central and
southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas through 7pm this evening
and then continues for all but the western row or two of counties
tonight and through the day Sunday.
In addition, the combination of very dry vegetation and drought
along with the extreme heat will result in elevated fire weather
this afternoon into the early evening hours across portions of the
area. There could also be a concern if any convection develops in
northwest Oklahoma with the potential for lightning caused fire
starts.
Speaking of convection, a surface "cold" front will move into
southwest Kansas by this afternoon, which will be a focus for storm
development later today. Although much of the convective activity is
expected to remain north and west of the area, if a storm is able to
move into northwest Oklahoma, it will pose a threat for damaging
wind gusts.
The low-end risk for convection will continue tonight across far
northwest Oklahoma, but the risk of severe weather will diminish as
we go deeper into the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
associated front will also slide a bit further south overnight and
is expected to be located near a Ponca City to Elk City line by
morning.
A reason that we will keep the advisory going is because of the lack
of any real relief overnight as many locations are expected to only
drop into the lower 80s by Sunday morning. Northwest Oklahoma may
get a bit of a break as they will be to the north of the front for a
good portion of the overnight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The aforementioned front will approach I-40 Sunday afternoon with
slightly less hot conditions across far northern Oklahoma, but still
all but far northwest Oklahoma will likely climb above 100 degrees.
In addition will continue to have a Heat Advisory for all but
western portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas, where
temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain just below
advisory criteria.
By Sunday afternoon, along and north of the front there will be at
least a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Keep fingers crossed that some areas could see at
least a little rain and no strong wind gusts to go along with it. If
any storms do develop, will need to be mindful of dry lightning and
possible fire starts associated with those strikes.
Models do show the front pushing into southern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday morning and at least a low chance of precip continuing
at least across northern into central Oklahoma Monday morning. The
front will begin to lift back to the north during the day Monday
with rain chances diminishing through the day and likely confined to
far northern Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.
The front should give a bit of reprieve of excessive heat and
keeping the potential for any heat headlines confined to southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The hot temperatures will spread back north on Tuesday as the
front dissipates and southerly flow returns across the area.
The operational medium-range models and many of the ensemble
members are now trending toward the upper ridge shifting to the
west and northwest flow aloft developing over the central and
southern Plains by late in the week, so we may be trending toward
seeing some lower temperatures late in the week. NBM still keeps
temperature higher late next week than this pattern would suggest,
but that will start catching up if this signal shows more run-to-
run consistency. Despite the model trend showing this potential of
shifting to northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances
associated with this shift are still a little uncertain and
dependent on how much of the ridge still reaches into the southern
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary will push through the northern half of the area
through tomorrow. This boundary will be the focal point for
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. With any
stronger storm, reduced visibility and strong to severe winds,
will be possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 102 74 97 / 0 30 20 20
Hobart OK 77 104 73 101 / 0 20 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 78 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 71 96 67 95 / 10 20 60 20
Ponca City OK 77 100 72 93 / 0 20 30 20
Durant OK 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>035.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260815T2249.txt
850
FXUS64 KOUN 151829
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
129 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
Sunday, with chances increasing and expanding over the northern
half of Oklahoma Sunday and Sunday night.
- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme
heat for northern Oklahoma Monday.
- Dangerous heat continues through the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Another very hot afternoon across Oklahoma and western north Texas,
where a Heat Advisory continues for all of western, central and
southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas through 7pm this evening
and then continues for all but the western row or two of counties
tonight and through the day Sunday.
In addition, the combination of very dry vegetation and drought
along with the extreme heat will result in elevated fire weather
this afternoon into the early evening hours across portions of the
area. There could also be a concern if any convection develops in
northwest Oklahoma with the potential for lightning caused fire
starts.
Speaking of convection, a surface "cold" front will move into
southwest Kansas by this afternoon, which will be a focus for storm
development later today. Although much of the convective activity is
expected to remain north and west of the area, if a storm is able to
move into northwest Oklahoma, it will pose a threat for damaging
wind gusts.
The low-end risk for convection will continue tonight across far
northwest Oklahoma, but the risk of severe weather will diminish as
we go deeper into the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
associated front will also slide a bit further south overnight and
is expected to be located near a Ponca City to Elk City line by
morning.
A reason that we will keep the advisory going is because of the lack
of any real relief overnight as many locations are expected to only
drop into the lower 80s by Sunday morning. Northwest Oklahoma may
get a bit of a break as they will be to the north of the front for a
good portion of the overnight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The aforementioned front will approach I-40 Sunday afternoon with
slightly less hot conditions across far northern Oklahoma, but still
all but far northwest Oklahoma will likely climb above 100 degrees.
In addition will continue to have a Heat Advisory for all but
western portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas, where
temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain just below
advisory criteria.
By Sunday afternoon, along and north of the front there will be at
least a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Keep fingers crossed that some areas could see at
least a little rain and no strong wind gusts to go along with it. If
any storms do develop, will need to be mindful of dry lightning and
possible fire starts associated with those strikes.
Models do show the front pushing into southern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday morning and at least a low chance of precip continuing
at least across northern into central Oklahoma Monday morning. The
front will begin to lift back to the north during the day Monday
with rain chances diminishing through the day and likely confined to
far northern Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.
The front should give a bit of reprieve of excessive heat and
keeping the potential for any heat headlines confined to southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The hot temperatures will spread back north on Tuesday as the
front dissipates and southerly flow returns across the area.
The operational medium-range models and many of the ensemble
members are now trending toward the upper ridge shifting to the
west and northwest flow aloft developing over the central and
southern Plains by late in the week, so we may be trending toward
seeing some lower temperatures late in the week. NBM still keeps
temperature higher late next week than this pattern would suggest,
but that will start catching up if this signal shows more run-to-
run consistency. Despite the model trend showing this potential of
shifting to northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances
associated with this shift are still a little uncertain and
dependent on how much of the ridge still reaches into the southern
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. S to SW winds this
afternoon becoming more southerly this evening. A boundary is
expected to move into parts of NW OK late tonight/early Sunday and
then move across parts of OK Sunday morning causing winds to
shift. Some showers/storms possible in NW OK late this afternoon
into tonight. Right now it looks like the best chances would
remain NW and N of the TAF sites. However, some activity may
approach KWWR this evening but chances are too low for mention in
TAF. Variable, strong winds possible near any storms this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102 78 102 74 / 0 0 30 20
Hobart OK 104 77 104 73 / 0 0 20 10
Wichita Falls TX 104 78 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 104 71 96 67 / 0 10 20 60
Ponca City OK 105 77 100 72 / 0 0 20 30
Durant OK 103 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>035.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260815T1829.txt
417
FXUS64 KOUN 151702
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
Sunday, with chances increasing and expanding over north-
central Oklahoma on Sunday night.
- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme
heat for northern Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning across far
northwest Oklahoma. Although most of the convection will remain
farther north in Kansas or farther west in the panhandles, a few
of these storms could still brush northwestern Oklahoma early this
morning.
A shortwave moving through the central/northern Plains today will
help nudge a cold front south through Kansas today. The front will
more than likely remain north of the forecast area through the
day, but looks to get close enough to the state border that there
will likely be some pre-frontal compressional warming across
northern Oklahoma today. With warmer 850 mb temperatures forecast
today by most models compared to yesterday, and the potential for
compressional warming ahead of the front, the NBM forecast for
temperatures to be slightly lower today seems odd and have gone
slightly above the NBM forecast for highs.
Many areas look to hit a heat index of 105 today (except for some
of the slightly higher elevations of west central Oklahoma) so the
Heat Advisory is still good, although have expanded it to include
a few more counties of the southwest for today.
With the front expected to remain north and northwest of the
forecast area, the potential of showers and storms will primarily
be across northwest Oklahoma yet again. The NBM has targeted the
right general area correctly over recent days, but has not been
aggressive enough with the probabilities or the area, and looking
at specific model forecasts (especially the HRRR), the same may be
true today as well, so have expanded the area in northwest
Oklahoma where showers/storms are mentioned compared to NBM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The front over Kansas finally slides into Oklahoma Saturday night
and Sunday. This will bring "not as hot" temperatures to northern
Oklahoma on Sunday as well as the somewhat higher precipitation
chances near and north of the boundary Sunday and Sunday night.
Although it will be "not as hot" in the north, forecast heat index
values still reach 105 across north central Oklahoma, so the Heat
Advisory still looks reasonable for Sunday as well. Monday, heat
index values will "only" be in the 99-104 range across much of
northern and central Oklahoma, but will still likely reach
advisory criteria in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas Monday
afternoon. A continuation of the Heat Advisory will be likely be
needed in the south on Monday, but the specific geography will
depend on how far south the front moves, so will address this
Sunday or Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The hot temperatures will spread back north on Tuesday as the
front dissipates and southerly flow returns across the area.
The operational medium-range models and many of the ensemble
members are now trending toward the upper ridge shifting to the
west and northwest flow aloft developing over the central and
southern Plains by late in the week, so we may be trending toward
seeing some lower temperatures late in the week. NBM still keeps
temperature higher late next week than this pattern would suggest,
but that will start catching up if this signal shows more run-to-
run consistency. Despite the model trend showing this potential of
shifting to northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances
associated with this shift are still a little uncertain and
dependent on how much of the ridge still reaches into the southern
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. S to SW winds this
afternoon becoming more southerly this evening. A boundary is
expected to move into parts of NW OK late tonight/early Sunday and
then move across parts of OK Sunday morning causing winds to
shift. Some showers/storms possible in NW OK late this afternoon
into tonight. Right now it looks like the best chances would
remain NW and N of the TAF sites. However, some activity may
approach KWWR this evening but chances are too low for mention in
TAF. Variable, strong winds possible near any storms this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102 78 102 75 / 0 0 20 20
Hobart OK 104 78 104 74 / 0 0 20 20
Wichita Falls TX 104 78 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 104 72 96 67 / 20 10 20 40
Ponca City OK 105 78 101 73 / 0 0 20 30
Durant OK 103 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>035.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260815T1702.txt
