Home
875
FXUS64 KOUN 072346
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Cooler day today behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into the middle of this week.
- A strong cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
below-normal temperatures heading into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
A cool/cold and low-impact weather day is underway across the area.
Our prolonged episode of wintertime fog has finally come to a
close, as a drier airmass continues to settle across the area.
Midday satellite reveals a shield of stratus entrenched across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma. As a result, today
will likely be a "what you see is what you get" type of day when
it comes to afternoon and early evening temperatures here. Gradual
erosion on the western periphery of the cloud bank is ongoing and
expected into the afternoon, allowing for temperatures to trickle
into the 50s across portions of western Oklahoma and western-noth
Texas.
The overnight period looks to be rather cold, with temperatures
dipping into the low-20s across western and northern Oklahoma,
especially in valleys/low spots. Patchy fog will also be possible
here towards daybreak Monday, though no widespread or prolonged
visibility reductions are currently anticipated.
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Monday continues to trend ever so cooler, as the forecast area
will still feel influence from a slowly departing surface high.
Combined with a signal for at least scattered/broken coverage of
low clouds towards midday across central and eastern portions of
the area, afternoon temperatures may end up remaining in the
upper-40s here. Further west, where a warmer mid-level airmass
will begin to arrive, a few 60 degree readings are likely.
Sensible conditions will be notably warmer by Tuesday, as the
previous synoptic system and surface reflection become more removed
from the area. A gusty south-southwesterly wind appears probable by
the afternoon, as a surface pressure gradient strengthens
coincident with another upper system emerging east of the
Rockies. This system looks to push a (weak) trailing surface front
through the area beginning late Tuesday evening. The chance for
precipitation is nil with this feature.
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. The midweek will feature
above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet to
our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air
keeping to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through
Thursday, but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to
250mb will give way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of
the eastern half of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday
could be nearly 20 degrees colder than Thursday and persist
through the weekend. Ensemble guidance continues to show a large
spread in temperatures for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s.
Cluster analysis reveals about 50 percent of the models lie near
the 50th percentile of the NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the
other 50 percent is split with one cluster having a strong warm
signal with temperatures leaning closer to the 90th percentile of
NBM, while the other cluster is slightly cooler and leaning
towards the 25th percentile of the NBM. With still a wide
variation of outcomes with the ensembles, a lot is likely to
change given Friday is still five days out. Trends will continue
to be monitored for a unified solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Expecting the overcast stratus across central Oklahoma to
eventually being scattering by 03Z with terminals KOKC & KOUN
improving to a VFR category and perhaps an hour later for terminal
KDUA. Terminals KPNC & KSWO will likely remain in a MVFR category
through 07Z then improve to a VFR category between 07-11Z when
the stratus scatters there. Patchy freezing fog from radiational
cooling will be possible toward 12Z across central & western OK
which could degrade a few of our terminals to an MVFR category
while denser fog more localized with lower visibilities could
result in further degradation to an IFR category. With
temperatures falling below freezing, any denser fog could freeze
on surfaces. Any radiational fog that develops is expected to
have burned off by 15Z. Beyond 15Z all terminals will remain in a
VFR category through the end of the forecast period. Surface
winds are expected to light & variable tonight but shift out of
the south by 17Z at 5-10 kts through Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 27 50 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 25 53 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 28 53 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 26 56 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 48 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 30 50 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251207T2346.txt
927
FXUS64 KOUN 071800
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Cooler day today behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into the middle of this week.
- A strong cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
below-normal temperatures heading into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
A cool/cold and low-impact weather day is underway across the area.
Our prolonged episode of wintertime fog has finally come to a
close, as a drier airmass continues to settle across the area.
Midday satellite reveals a shield of stratus entrenched across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma. As a result, today
will likely be a "what you see is what you get" type of day when
it comes to afternoon and early evening temperatures here. Gradual
erosion on the western periphery of the cloud bank is ongoing and
expected into the afternoon, allowing for temperatures to trickle
into the 50s across portions of western Oklahoma and western-noth
Texas.
The overnight period looks to be rather cold, with temperatures
dipping into the low-20s across western and northern Oklahoma,
especially in valleys/low spots. Patchy fog will also be possible
here towards daybreak Monday, though no widespread or prolonged
visibility reductions are currently anticipated.
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Monday continues to trend ever so cooler, as the forecast area
will still feel influence from a slowly departing surface high.
Combined with a signal for at least scattered/broken coverage of
low clouds towards midday across central and eastern portions of
the area, afternoon temperatures may end up remaining in the
upper-40s here. Further west, where a warmer mid-level airmass
will begin to arrive, a few 60 degree readings are likely.
Sensible conditions will be notably warmer by Tuesday, as the
previous synoptic system and surface reflection become more removed
from the area. A gusty south-southwesterly wind appears probable by
the afternoon, as a surface pressure gradient strengthens
coincident with another upper system emerging east of the
Rockies. This system looks to push a (weak) trailing surface front
through the area beginning late Tuesday evening. The chance for
precipitation is nil with this feature.
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. The midweek will feature
above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet to
our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air
keeping to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through
Thursday, but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to
250mb will give way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of
the eastern half of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday
could be nearly 20 degrees colder than Thursday and persist
through the weekend. Ensemble guidance continues to show a large
spread in temperatures for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s.
Cluster analysis reveals about 50 percent of the models lie near
the 50th percentile of the NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the
other 50 percent is split with one cluster having a strong warm
signal with temperatures leaning closer to the 90th percentile of
NBM, while the other cluster is slightly cooler and leaning
towards the 25th percentile of the NBM. With still a wide
variation of outcomes with the ensembles, a lot is likely to
change given Friday is still five days out. Trends will continue
to be monitored for a unified solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
MVFR ceilings are forecast to lift this afternoon and gusty north
winds become light this evening. There is a medium-low probability
(20 to 40 percent) that MVFR conditions return to KPNC and KDUA
towards early Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 27 50 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 25 53 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 28 53 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 26 56 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 48 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 30 50 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...01
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251207T1800.txt
740
FXUS64 KOUN 071719
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1119 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 6 AM this morning.
Visibility reductions may cause hazardous travel conditions.
- Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into the middle of this week.
- Another cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
below- normal temperatures heading into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Another day, another morning of fog. Areas of fog, some dense,
have developed yesterday evening across much of central and
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. A surface low is
moving east across north Texas and has brought a north wind to
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. However, the true
front with the drier and colder air is moving into northwest
Oklahoma and will push south through the entire area by later
this morning. This front will clear out any low clouds and fog in
its path. Some patchy fog, potentially dense, and low clouds may
linger a few hours past sunrise across southeast Oklahoma before
the dry air finally fills in. Post-frontal north winds may pick
up this morning and into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20
to 25 mph possible. As the surface high sinks southward today, a
cooler post-frontal airmass will keep high temperatures from
rising generally above the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Light winds and mostly clear skies will give way to radiational
cooling Sunday night and temperatures plummeting into the 20s.
There is a small potential for some low clouds to develop Sunday
night across eastern Oklahoma and creep westward into central
Oklahoma before clearing through Monday morning. In the wake of the
previous shortwave and cold front, northwesterly flow will persist
aloft but surface flow will return to the south. Thus, warm air
advection will return to the forecast area with highs warming back
to normal in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. Tuesday through Thursday will
feature above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet
to our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air keeping
to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through Thursday,
but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to 250mb will give
way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of the eastern half
of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday could be nearly 20
degrees colder than Thursday and persist through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a large spread in temperatures
for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s. Cluster analysis reveals
about 50 percent of the models lie near the 50th percentile of the
NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the other 50 percent is split
with one cluster having a strong warm signal with temperatures
leaning closer to the 90th percentile of NBM, while the other
cluster is slightly cooler and leaning towards the 25th percentile
of the NBM. With still a wide variation of outcomes with the
ensembles, a lot is likely to change given Friday is still five days
out. Trends will continue to be monitored for a unified solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
MVFR ceilings are forecast to lift this afternoon and gusty north
winds become light this evening. There is a medium-low probability
(20 to 40 percent) that MVFR conditions return to KPNC and KDUA
towards early Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 27 50 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 25 53 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 28 53 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 26 56 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 48 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 30 50 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...01
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251207T1719.txt
733
FXUS64 KOUN 071050
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
450 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 447 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 6 AM this morning.
Visibility reductions may cause hazardous travel conditions.
- Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into the middle of this week.
- Another cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
below- normal temperatures heading into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Another day, another morning of fog. Areas of fog, some dense,
have developed yesterday evening across much of central and
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. A surface low is
moving east across north Texas and has brought a north wind to
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. However, the true
front with the drier and colder air is moving into northwest
Oklahoma and will push south through the entire area by later
this morning. This front will clear out any low clouds and fog in
its path. Some patchy fog, potentially dense, and low clouds may
linger a few hours past sunrise across southeast Oklahoma before
the dry air finally fills in. Post-frontal north winds may pick
up this morning and into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20
to 25 mph possible. As the surface high sinks southward today, a
cooler post-frontal airmass will keep high temperatures from
rising generally above the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Light winds and mostly clear skies will give way to radiational
cooling Sunday night and temperatures plummeting into the 20s.
There is a small potential for some low clouds to develop Sunday
night across eastern Oklahoma and creep westward into central
Oklahoma before clearing through Monday morning. In the wake of the
previous shortwave and cold front, northwesterly flow will persist
aloft but surface flow will return to the south. Thus, warm air
advection will return to the forecast area with highs warming back
to normal in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. Tuesday through Thursday will
feature above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet
to our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air keeping
to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through Thursday,
but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to 250mb will give
way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of the eastern half
of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday could be nearly 20
degrees colder than Thursday and persist through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a large spread in temperatures
for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s. Cluster analysis reveals
about 50 percent of the models lie near the 50th percentile of the
NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the other 50 percent is split
with one cluster having a strong warm signal with temperatures
leaning closer to the 90th percentile of NBM, while the other
cluster is slightly cooler and leaning towards the 25th percentile
of the NBM. With still a wide variation of outcomes with the
ensembles, a lot is likely to change given Friday is still five days
out. Trends will continue to be monitored for a unified solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
LIFR/IFR ceilings/visibility will continue to gradually improve
from NW to SE across the area as a cold front and drier air moves
across the area. MVFR ceilings in KS is expected to move into
parts of N and maybe central OK this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind
the front. Wind speeds will decrease later today into tonight as
sfc ridge builds into the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 42 25 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 50 23 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 53 26 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 46 24 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 39 23 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 49 29 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for OKZ032-
039>048-050>052.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ086-
088>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251207T1050.txt
611
FXUS64 KOUN 070641
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 6 AM this morning.
Visibility reductions may cause hazardous travel conditions.
- Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into the middle of this week.
- Another cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
below- normal temperatures heading into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Another day, another morning of fog. Areas of fog, some dense,
have developed yesterday evening across much of central and
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. A surface low is
moving east across north Texas and has brought a north wind to
southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. However, the true
front with the drier and colder air is moving into northwest
Oklahoma and will push south through the entire area by later
this morning. This front will clear out any low clouds and fog in
its path. Some patchy fog, potentially dense, and low clouds may
linger a few hours past sunrise across southeast Oklahoma before
the dry air finally fills in. Post-frontal north winds may pick
up this morning and into the afternoon hours with gusts up to 20
to 25 mph possible. As the surface high sinks southward today, a
cooler post-frontal airmass will keep high temperatures from
rising generally above the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Light winds and mostly clear skies will give way to radiational
cooling Sunday night and temperatures plummeting into the 20s.
There is a small potential for some low clouds to develop Sunday
night across eastern Oklahoma and creep westward into central
Oklahoma before clearing through Monday morning. In the wake of the
previous shortwave and cold front, northwesterly flow will persist
aloft but surface flow will return to the south. Thus, warm air
advection will return to the forecast area with highs warming back
to normal in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. Tuesday through Thursday will
feature above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet
to our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air keeping
to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through Thursday,
but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to 250mb will give
way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of the eastern half
of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday could be nearly 20
degrees colder than Thursday and persist through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a large spread in temperatures
for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s. Cluster analysis reveals
about 50 percent of the models lie near the 50th percentile of the
NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the other 50 percent is split
with one cluster having a strong warm signal with temperatures
leaning closer to the 90th percentile of NBM, while the other
cluster is slightly cooler and leaning towards the 25th percentile
of the NBM. With still a wide variation of outcomes with the
ensembles, a lot is likely to change given Friday is still five days
out. Trends will continue to be monitored for a unified solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
A cold front has pushed into northwest Oklahoma and will continue
to move across our terminals between 07-10Z producing a north wind
shift around 10 kts behind the front. Expecting visibilities to
further reduce for a few hours just ahead the approaching front
maintaining LIFR conditions. Ceilings should rise with improving
visibilities gradually behind the cold front/wind shift to at
least a MVFR category. Will expect all terminals to return to a
VFR category between 16-20Z. North surface winds will increase
after 17Z gusting up to 20 kts and going light & variable after
01Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 42 25 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 50 23 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 53 26 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 46 24 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 39 23 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 49 29 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
OKZ021>048-050>052.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251207T0641.txt
740
FXUS64 KOUN 070456
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
- A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through mid-Sunday
morning.
- Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Widespread dense fog remains entrenched across the southeastern one-
half of Oklahoma and portions of western-north Texas. While gradual
dissipation will continue into the early afternoon, the overall
breadth of fog coverage, along with continued light winds and
minimal temperature/moisture advection, will likely allow at least
patchy dense fog to linger towards 1-2 PM. Irregardless of how long
dense fog lasts, with low clouds likely persisting towards
sunset, locally coolest/cold afternoon temperatures (in the 40s)
are expected across south-central and central Oklahoma.
For our friends west of a Seymour-Elk City-Enid arc, there is hardly
a cloud in the sky at midday. Temperatures are expected to warm into
the upper-50s to low-60s with a breezy southwest wind (owing to
the pressure response from a nearby weak surface cyclone).
Fog looks to return this evening, possibly just after sunset where
temperatures remain coolest during the daytime. Dense fog
(visibility <1/4-mile) is also likely across portions of
southwestern, central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas
ahead of an approaching surface front into Sunday morning. With a
drier airmass filtering in behind the front, the temporal character
of dense fog concern is somewhat uncertain, especially from
southwestern into central Oklahoma. While a Dense Fog Advisory is
likely again late this evening/Sunday morning, will hold off on
fog headlines at this update. Fortunately, overnight lows are
expected to remain a few degrees above freezing such that freezing
fog will not be a concern with tonight's fog episode.
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Sunday will be a cooler day behind the front, as fringes of a
1029-mb surface high impinge across the area. A gusty northerly
wind in the morning will create brisk conditions (wind chills in
the 20s) if you have outdoor plans on Sunday morning. Daytime
temperatures won't feel markedly warmer, with areas north of the
I-40 corridor likely to remain in the 40s. Should low clouds hang
around longer than currently anticipated, some locales near the
Oklahoma-Kansas border may struggle to warm out of the 30s.
Conditions will begin to moderate by Monday, as the previous surface
high begins to depart to the south and east. Afternoon temperatures
in the 50s to near 60-degrees (across the west) are currently
advertised.
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
A brief weak backdoor cold front will move through Wednesday, but
most of the colder airmass will keep northeast of the forecast
area as the upper jet associated with the system slides across the
Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley, taking much of the
colder air with it. In the wake of that shortwave will be a
stronger longwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft
that will dig much colder air into the CONUS. Ensemble spread of
temperatures increases for Friday highs with temperatures ranging
from the lower 30s to upper 40s. Cluster analysis is about a 50/50
split towards the 25th and 75th percentile temperatures. These
temperature spreads will continue to be monitored through the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
A cold front has pushed into northwest Oklahoma and will continue
to move across our terminals between 07-10Z producing a north wind
shift around 10 kts behind the front. Expecting visibilities to
further reduce for a few hours just ahead the approaching front
maintaining LIFR conditions. Ceilings should rise with improving
visibilities gradually behind the cold front/wind shift to at
least a MVFR category. Will expect all terminals to return to a
VFR category between 16-20Z. North surface winds will increase
after 17Z gusting up to 20 kts and going light & variable after
01Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 45 34 43 25 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 54 34 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 53 37 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 59 29 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 51 31 39 21 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 53 39 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ021>048-050>052.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251207T0456.txt
480
FXUS64 KOUN 062351
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
551 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
- A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 1 PM; additional dense
fog expected late Saturday and Sunday morning.
- Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before dry and seasonable
weather into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Widespread dense fog remains entrenched across the southeastern one-
half of Oklahoma and portions of western-north Texas. While gradual
dissipation will continue into the early afternoon, the overall
breadth of fog coverage, along with continued light winds and
minimal temperature/moisture advection, will likely allow at least
patchy dense fog to linger towards 1-2 PM. Irregardless of how long
dense fog lasts, with low clouds likely persisting towards
sunset, locally coolest/cold afternoon temperatures (in the 40s)
are expected across south-central and central Oklahoma.
For our friends west of a Seymour-Elk City-Enid arc, there is hardly
a cloud in the sky at midday. Temperatures are expected to warm into
the upper-50s to low-60s with a breezy southwest wind (owing to
the pressure response from a nearby weak surface cyclone).
Fog looks to return this evening, possibly just after sunset where
temperatures remain coolest during the daytime. Dense fog
(visibility <1/4-mile) is also likely across portions of
southwestern, central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas
ahead of an approaching surface front into Sunday morning. With a
drier airmass filtering in behind the front, the temporal character
of dense fog concern is somewhat uncertain, especially from
southwestern into central Oklahoma. While a Dense Fog Advisory is
likely again late this evening/Sunday morning, will hold off on
fog headlines at this update. Fortunately, overnight lows are
expected to remain a few degrees above freezing such that freezing
fog will not be a concern with tonight's fog episode.
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Sunday will be a cooler day behind the front, as fringes of a
1029-mb surface high impinge across the area. A gusty northerly
wind in the morning will create brisk conditions (wind chills in
the 20s) if you have outdoor plans on Sunday morning. Daytime
temperatures won't feel markedly warmer, with areas north of the
I-40 corridor likely to remain in the 40s. Should low clouds hang
around longer than currently anticipated, some locales near the
Oklahoma-Kansas border may struggle to warm out of the 30s.
Conditions will begin to moderate by Monday, as the previous surface
high begins to depart to the south and east. Afternoon temperatures
in the 50s to near 60-degrees (across the west) are currently
advertised.
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
A brief weak backdoor cold front will move through Wednesday, but
most of the colder airmass will keep northeast of the forecast
area as the upper jet associated with the system slides across the
Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley, taking much of the
colder air with it. In the wake of that shortwave will be a
stronger longwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft
that will dig much colder air into the CONUS. Ensemble spread of
temperatures increases for Friday highs with temperatures ranging
from the lower 30s to upper 40s. Cluster analysis is about a 50/50
split towards the 25th and 75th percentile temperatures. These
temperature spreads will continue to be monitored through the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
A cold front will start pushing into northwest Oklahoma by 05Z
shifting surface winds out of the north behind the front around
10kt. The cold front/wind shift will be moving across our
remaining terminals between 06-09Z producing that north wind
shift. Prior to the front will see dense fog and ceilings lowered
with most terminals withing a LIFR Category. Visibilities may
gradually improve within 4 hours after the frontal arrival perhaps
returning to a MVFR category by 12Z and gradually improving to a
VFR category by 17Z. North surface winds will increase after 17Z
gusting up to 20kts into Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 34 43 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 34 50 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 37 53 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 29 46 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 31 39 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 39 51 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ022>032-035>048-
050>052.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20251206T2351.txt
