Home
676
FXUS64 KOUN 011100
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
500 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
- Rain and storm chances increase this afternoon and evening
across central and southern Oklahoma. A few severe storms with
large hail and damaging winds may be possible.
- Storm chances will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong
to severe storms may be possible.
- Increasing chances for widespread storms and rainfall later this
week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Similar to yesterday morning, there is a low chance (<25%) of some
early morning mid-level warm advection showers and storms.
Instability is a bit higher with MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg, which could
support lightning and very small hail with gusty winds. A few
localized areas could see upwards of 0.1" of rainfall with any
shower/storm development.
The cold front is expected to remain nearly stationary across
southwest Oklahoma and stretching northeast towards I-40 and
along/near I-40 through central Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected
to warm into the 70s and 80s ahead of the frontal boundary, while
cold air advection and cloud cover behind the boundary will give way
to cooler temperatures in the mid 50s to 60s (nearly 20-25 degrees
colder than Saturday's highs). Southerly surface flow ahead of the
front will bring increased dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s.
Instability will increase ahead of the surface low positioned over
southwest Oklahoma with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg extended
near and along the I-44 corridor by the afternoon hours. A few
strong to severe storms may be possible in this aforementioned
corridor late this afternoon and into the evening hours along the
southward advancing front. Bulk shear of 50-60 knots and modest
lapse rates near 7 C/km will support storms capable of producing
large hail up to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph. PWATs are up to 1.25-1.5" this afternoon where storms may
develop, thus locally heavy rainfall and flooding could be a concern
where stronger storms develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Elevated storms may continue across southern Oklahoma and into north
Texas along the southward advancing front late Sunday night.
Additionally, there is a chance for some showers and elevated storms
to develop behind the front early Monday morning. MUCAPE of up to
1500 J/kg above the shallow moist layer could give way to small hail
if a storm or two were to become strong. Heading into Monday,
precipitation chances will decrease with a cloudy post-frontal air
mass. Temperatures may be a bit tricky Monday as several models are
unsure how far south the front will continue Sunday night before
stalling again. Cold air advection behind the front will at least
bring highs in the 50s across northern Oklahoma. Temperatures may
still warm above average in the 60s to 70s across central and
southern Oklahoma and into north Texas, but remains contingent on
how far south the frontal boundary pushes. The current forecast
takes into account the front stalling along a line from western
north Texas to southeast Oklahoma allowing for warmer temperatures
and weaker cold air advection. But if the front pushes past the Red
River, several areas across central Oklahoma may not warm out of the
50s.
Another shortwave approaching the Central Plains Tuesday will bring
a return to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Lee cyclogenesis will
strengthen over southeast Colorado Tuesday afternoon and push
southeastward through the evening. Breezy southerly surface winds
with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible during the day
Tuesday. Wind driven elevated fire weather conditions are possible
with relative humidity values expected to remain above 30 percent.
Very warm temperatures will occur with highs in the 80s and with a
lack of substantial rainfall, fuels will still be abnormally dry
with moderate drought and pockets of severe/extreme drought
persisting.
Storm chances remain low during the afternoon Tuesday due to very
warm 850mb temperatures giving way to capping across most of the
area. However, shower and storm chances will increase Tuesday
evening and overnight with the cold front. Once again increased
instability along and behind the front may give way to storm
development. Along the front, a few storms could become rooted to
the surface but behind the front storms would be mostly elevated.
MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg, shear in excess of 60+ knots and
steep mid-level lapse rates of up to 8 C/km will support strong to
severe storms capable of producing large hail.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Wednesday and through next weekend continues to remain an active
period with a progressive pattern aloft. Tuesday's cold front may
stall somewhere around southeast Oklahoma and into north Texas on
Wednesday, which will open the door for additional storms to develop
along the frontal boundary. Behind the front, much of the storm
chances will decrease with a more post-frontal drier airmass in the
wake of the shortwave. There remains uncertainty in the exact
location of the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday, which will play
a key role in where the moisture axis and storm chances remain. Any
storms that develop could become strong to severe.
Heading into Thursday through next weekend, more widespread rainfall
chances are possible with another advancing shortwave and a cutoff
low over Baja helping to advect sub-tropical moisture into the
Southern Plains. Strong to severe storms remain possible given the
mid-level ascent and increased moisture, but exact mesoscale details
will still need to be assessed through this week. As mentioned
before, widespread rainfall is possible with a chance for some areas
receiving several inches of rain. The highest probabilities for
greater rainfall amounts remains mostly east of the I-44 corridor
with a medium to high chance (40-80%) for greater than 1 inch of
rain and a low to medium chance (20-40%) for greater than 2 inches
of rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Initially VFR conditions will give way to progressively lower
category by this evening and night across the region. A surface
front, currently draped near the I-44 corridor, will lift slowly
northward during the day today promoting veering surface wind
direction across central and southern Oklahoma.
Expect scattered rain/thunder development near the I-44 corridor
by late this afternoon and evening, as a reinforced front moves
southward across the area. Greatest chance of impact is at
KOKC/KOUN/KLAW into late Saturday evening. Additional rain showers
are possible into northern Oklahoma behind the front.
Widespread post-frontal stratus is expected to deteriorate cig/vis
conditions into early Monday, with widespread low-MVFR to perhaps
local LIFR conditions across Oklahoma and north Texas.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 73 45 62 55 / 50 50 20 10
Hobart OK 75 42 64 53 / 10 40 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 83 52 74 59 / 30 40 10 0
Gage OK 60 32 59 45 / 0 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 55 39 56 49 / 50 40 20 20
Durant OK 79 56 76 60 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260301T1100.txt
315
FXUS64 KOUN 010748
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
148 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
- Rain and storm chances increase this afternoon and evening
across central and southern Oklahoma. A few severe storms with
large hail and damaging winds may be possible.
- Storm chances will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong
to severe storms may be possible.
- Increasing chances for widespread storms and rainfall later this
week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Similar to yesterday morning, there is a low chance (<25%) of some
early morning mid-level warm advection showers and storms.
Instability is a bit higher with MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg, which could
support lightning and very small hail with gusty winds. A few
localized areas could see upwards of 0.1" of rainfall with any
shower/storm development.
The cold front is expected to remain nearly stationary across
southwest Oklahoma and stretching northeast towards I-40 and
along/near I-40 through central Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected
to warm into the 70s and 80s ahead of the frontal boundary, while
cold air advection and cloud cover behind the boundary will give way
to cooler temperatures in the mid 50s to 60s (nearly 20-25 degrees
colder than Saturday's highs). Southerly surface flow ahead of the
front will bring increased dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s.
Instability will increase ahead of the surface low positioned over
southwest Oklahoma with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg extended
near and along the I-44 corridor by the afternoon hours. A few
strong to severe storms may be possible in this aforementioned
corridor late this afternoon and into the evening hours along the
southward advancing front. Bulk shear of 50-60 knots and modest
lapse rates near 7 C/km will support storms capable of producing
large hail up to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph. PWATs are up to 1.25-1.5" this afternoon where storms may
develop, thus locally heavy rainfall and flooding could be a concern
where stronger storms develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Elevated storms may continue across southern Oklahoma and into north
Texas along the southward advancing front late Sunday night.
Additionally, there is a chance for some showers and elevated storms
to develop behind the front early Monday morning. MUCAPE of up to
1500 J/kg above the shallow moist layer could give way to small hail
if a storm or two were to become strong. Heading into Monday,
precipitation chances will decrease with a cloudy post-frontal air
mass. Temperatures may be a bit tricky Monday as several models are
unsure how far south the front will continue Sunday night before
stalling again. Cold air advection behind the front will at least
bring highs in the 50s across northern Oklahoma. Temperatures may
still warm above average in the 60s to 70s across central and
southern Oklahoma and into north Texas, but remains contingent on
how far south the frontal boundary pushes. The current forecast
takes into account the front stalling along a line from western
north Texas to southeast Oklahoma allowing for warmer temperatures
and weaker cold air advection. But if the front pushes past the Red
River, several areas across central Oklahoma may not warm out of the
50s.
Another shortwave approaching the Central Plains Tuesday will bring
a return to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Lee cyclogenesis will
strengthen over southeast Colorado Tuesday afternoon and push
southeastward through the evening. Breezy southerly surface winds
with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will be possible during the day
Tuesday. Wind driven elevated fire weather conditions are possible
with relative humidity values expected to remain above 30 percent.
Very warm temperatures will occur with highs in the 80s and with a
lack of substantial rainfall, fuels will still be abnormally dry
with moderate drought and pockets of severe/extreme drought
persisting.
Storm chances remain low during the afternoon Tuesday due to very
warm 850mb temperatures giving way to capping across most of the
area. However, shower and storm chances will increase Tuesday
evening and overnight with the cold front. Once again increased
instability along and behind the front may give way to storm
development. Along the front, a few storms could become rooted to
the surface but behind the front storms would be mostly elevated.
MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg, shear in excess of 60+ knots and
steep mid-level lapse rates of up to 8 C/km will support strong to
severe storms capable of producing large hail.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 141 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Wednesday and through next weekend continues to remain an active
period with a progressive pattern aloft. Tuesday's cold front may
stall somewhere around southeast Oklahoma and into north Texas on
Wednesday, which will open the door for additional storms to develop
along the frontal boundary. Behind the front, much of the storm
chances will decrease with a more post-frontal drier airmass in the
wake of the shortwave. There remains uncertainty in the exact
location of the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday, which will play
a key role in where the moisture axis and storm chances remain. Any
storms that develop could become strong to severe.
Heading into Thursday through next weekend, more widespread rainfall
chances are possible with another advancing shortwave and a cutoff
low over Baja helping to advect sub-tropical moisture into the
Southern Plains. Strong to severe storms remain possible given the
mid-level ascent and increased moisture, but exact mesoscale details
will still need to be assessed through this week. As mentioned
before, widespread rainfall is possible with a chance for some areas
receiving several inches of rain. The highest probabilities for
greater rainfall amounts remains mostly east of the I-44 corridor
with a medium to high chance (40-80%) for greater than 1 inch of
rain and a low to medium chance (20-40%) for greater than 2 inches
of rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Isolated showers will still be possible overnight, but
probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. But chance for
showers increase through the day on Sunday and have PROB30 groups
for showers or storms in most TAFs later in the period. A cold
front will slowly move south through the area shifting winds to
north/northeasterly and winds will become gusty in the mid-morning
hours. MVFR and even locally IFR ceilings are expected to develop
Sunday evening, especially in north central Oklahoma including
KPNC and KSWO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 73 45 62 55 / 50 50 20 10
Hobart OK 75 42 64 53 / 10 40 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 83 52 74 59 / 30 40 10 0
Gage OK 60 32 59 45 / 0 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 55 39 56 49 / 50 40 20 20
Durant OK 79 56 76 60 / 20 30 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260301T0748.txt
849
FXUS64 KOUN 010507
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1107 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Rain/storm chances increase overnight but limited in coverage
becoming more widespread late Sunday.
- Our wet trend will continue next week with a potential for two
more weather systems bringing rain/storms into our area.
- A weather system on Wednesday could bring a severe risk across
southeast Oklahoma
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The first of potentially 3 weather systems will be coming through
increasing rain chances across parts of our forecast area during the
near into short term periods. However, rain coverage will be more
limited and spotty across central through southeastern Oklahoma in
the near term period where POPs are in place.
Our flow aloft is a typical late Winter split-flow pattern with a
long-wave trough in the polar jet over much of the northern U.S.
while the Southern Plains remains under the warmer weaker ridged
subtropical flow jet. In the lower-levels a surface cold front was
stretched across Kansas with southerly flow enhanced by a low-level
jet advecting gulf moisture across eastern Texas into Oklahoma. The
increasing moisture under sunny afternoon skies will continue to
destabilize the air although staying well capped for any surface
based convection. Warm air advection had produced a few earlier rain
showers/weak elevated storms and RAP guidance continues to show
strong isentropic ascent through the mid-levels on the 305 K surface
through the afternoon. As a result will maintain low POPs through
this afternoon across central through southeast Oklahoma mainly east
and south of the I-44 corridor for a potential of isolated elevated
convection and/or showers. However this potential will decrease in
time (15-20%) as the low-level jet continues weakening along with
the strongest isentropic forcing both shifting more eastward as well
as CAM guidance. A system moving through the polar jet will be
pushing the aforementioned cold front into northern Oklahoma this
evening and stalling overnight near the I-40 corridor. Although
staying dry along the front, isentropic ascent from warm advection
just ahead of the front could reinitiate some elevated showers
and/or convection across central through southeast Oklahoma
generally east and south of I-44 through sunrise Sunday. Not
expecting anything severe with any of this elevated convection as
weak MUCAPE instability should limit any organization. However,
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with
sufficient D-CAPE values could support strong wind gusts and/or
small hail. NBM has a good handle on temperatures this afternoon as
we will stay unseasonably warm with much of our area seeing 80s
highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Our nearly stalled cold front is expected to linger along the I-40
corridor Sunday then finally push into southern Oklahoma to just
south of the Red River on Monday as reinforcing colder air surges in
from the northeast. NBM a bit warm-biased with the colder air so
used a slightly cooler CONSMOS guidance for Sunday's MaxT. Much of
northern Oklahoma will see a strong 20-25 degree cooldown from the
previous day. A series of vort max disturbances propagating
downstream through the mid-level ridging across southeast Kansas
could impact northcentral Oklahoma while still seeing potential
ascent over the frontal boundary in the mid-levels along several
isentropic surfaces. As a result will maintain elevated
showers/storm POPs keeping them along and east of the I-35 corridor
through late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. POP coverage
becomes more widespread across our area and highest (up to 50%) by
late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours as our stalled frontal
boundary makes a final push southward into northern Texas
potentially tapping into surface-based moisture. A series of vort
max's will also be increasing across our mid-levels keeping POPs in
the forecast for Sunday night. Both surface-based and elevated
instability still expected to be weak for any organized severe
storms, but still could see a few strong storms especially along the
frontal boundary which could produce gusty winds and small hail.
Although post-frontal on Monday much of the cooler air will linger
across our northern CWA as north winds weaken becoming light in the
afternoon. Our area will be dry and nearly POP free Monday
afternoon on with south winds gradually returning overnight for
moisture recovery before our next weather system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains
with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture
aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the
100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma.
Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with
a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible,
especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass
across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm
chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best
chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be
the greatest.
Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low
near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and
ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains
uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of
the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This
will play a key role in the timing and location of where the
greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even
heading into the first week of March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Isolated showers will still be possible overnight, but
probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. But chance for
showers increase through the day on Sunday and have PROB30 groups
for showers or storms in most TAFs later in the period. A cold
front will slowly move south through the area shifting winds to
north/northeasterly and winds will become gusty in the mid-morning
hours. MVFR and even locally IFR ceilings are expected to develop
Sunday evening, especially in north central Oklahoma including
KPNC and KSWO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 53 70 46 67 / 20 20 50 20
Hobart OK 52 71 43 68 / 10 10 50 10
Wichita Falls TX 58 81 53 77 / 20 10 40 10
Gage OK 41 60 33 61 / 0 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 43 55 39 59 / 10 40 50 30
Durant OK 58 79 57 78 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260301T0507.txt
410
FXUS64 KOUN 282341
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
541 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Unseasonably warm today with near record breaking temperatures
across our south
- Rain/storm chances increase this evening and overnight but
limited in coverage becoming more widespread late Sunday.
- Our wet trend will continue next week with a potential for two
more weather systems bringing rain/storms into our area.
- A weather system on Wednesday could bring a severe risk across
southeast Oklahoma
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The first of potentially 3 weather systems will be coming through
increasing rain chances across parts of our forecast area during the
near into short term periods. However, rain coverage will be more
limited and spotty across central through southeastern Oklahoma in
the near term period where POPs are in place.
Our flow aloft is a typical late Winter split-flow pattern with a
long-wave trough in the polar jet over much of the northern U.S.
while the Southern Plains remains under the warmer weaker ridged
subtropical flow jet. In the lower-levels a surface cold front was
stretched across Kansas with southerly flow enhanced by a low-level
jet advecting gulf moisture across eastern Texas into Oklahoma. The
increasing moisture under sunny afternoon skies will continue to
destabilize the air although staying well capped for any surface
based convection. Warm air advection had produced a few earlier rain
showers/weak elevated storms and RAP guidance continues to show
strong isentropic ascent through the mid-levels on the 305 K surface
through the afternoon. As a result will maintain low POPs through
this afternoon across central through southeast Oklahoma mainly east
and south of the I-44 corridor for a potential of isolated elevated
convection and/or showers. However this potential will decrease in
time (15-20%) as the low-level jet continues weakening along with
the strongest isentropic forcing both shifting more eastward as well
as CAM guidance. A system moving through the polar jet will be
pushing the aforementioned cold front into northern Oklahoma this
evening and stalling overnight near the I-40 corridor. Although
staying dry along the front, isentropic ascent from warm advection
just ahead of the front could reinitiate some elevated showers
and/or convection across central through southeast Oklahoma
generally east and south of I-44 through sunrise Sunday. Not
expecting anything severe with any of this elevated convection as
weak MUCAPE instability should limit any organization. However,
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with
sufficient D-CAPE values could support strong wind gusts and/or
small hail. NBM has a good handle on temperatures this afternoon as
we will stay unseasonably warm with much of our area seeing 80s
highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Our nearly stalled cold front is expected to linger along the I-40
corridor Sunday then finally push into southern Oklahoma to just
south of the Red River on Monday as reinforcing colder air surges in
from the northeast. NBM a bit warm-biased with the colder air so
used a slightly cooler CONSMOS guidance for Sunday's MaxT. Much of
northern Oklahoma will see a strong 20-25 degree cooldown from the
previous day. A series of vort max disturbances propagating
downstream through the mid-level ridging across southeast Kansas
could impact northcentral Oklahoma while still seeing potential
ascent over the frontal boundary in the mid-levels along several
isentropic surfaces. As a result will maintain elevated
showers/storm POPs keeping them along and east of the I-35 corridor
through late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. POP coverage
becomes more widespread across our area and highest (up to 50%) by
late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours as our stalled frontal
boundary makes a final push southward into northern Texas
potentially tapping into surface-based moisture. A series of vort
max's will also be increasing across our mid-levels keeping POPs in
the forecast for Sunday night. Both surface-based and elevated
instability still expected to be weak for any organized severe
storms, but still could see a few strong storms especially along the
frontal boundary which could produce gusty winds and small hail.
Although post-frontal on Monday much of the cooler air will linger
across our northern CWA as north winds weaken becoming light in the
afternoon. Our area will be dry and nearly POP free Monday
afternoon on with south winds gradually returning overnight for
moisture recovery before our next weather system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains
with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture
aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the
100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma.
Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with
a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible,
especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass
across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm
chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best
chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be
the greatest.
Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low
near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and
ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains
uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of
the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This
will play a key role in the timing and location of where the
greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even
heading into the first week of March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
A cold front across northern Oklahoma will slowly move south
tonight and Sunday with winds shifting to northerly/northeasterly
with the passage of the front. Scattered showers may develop again
tonight with the highest potential across southeastern Oklahoma.
The chances of showers and isolated storms will increase late
Sunday morning and afternoon, in the south and east with the
chances becoming high enough for PROB30 groups at KPNC and KSWO
after 15Z. Lower (MVFR) ceilings are expected to develop Sunday
afternoon at KPNC and KSWO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 53 70 46 67 / 20 20 50 20
Hobart OK 52 71 43 68 / 10 10 50 10
Wichita Falls TX 58 81 53 77 / 20 10 40 10
Gage OK 41 60 33 61 / 0 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 43 55 39 59 / 10 40 50 30
Durant OK 58 79 57 78 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260228T2341.txt
664
FXUS64 KOUN 281910
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Unseasonably warm today with near record breaking temperatures
across our south
- Rain/storm chances increase this evening and overnight but
limited in coverage becoming more widespread late Sunday.
- Our wet trend will continue next week with a potential for two
more weather systems bringing rain/storms into our area.
- A weather system on Wednesday could bring a severe risk across
southeast Oklahoma
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The first of potentially 3 weather systems will be coming through
increasing rain chances across parts of our forecast area during the
near into short term periods. However, rain coverage will be more
limited and spotty across central through southeastern Oklahoma in
the near term period where POPs are in place.
Our flow aloft is a typical late Winter split-flow pattern with a
long-wave trough in the polar jet over much of the northern U.S.
while the Southern Plains remains under the warmer weaker ridged
subtropical flow jet. In the lower-levels a surface cold front was
stretched across Kansas with southerly flow enhanced by a low-level
jet advecting gulf moisture across eastern Texas into Oklahoma. The
increasing moisture under sunny afternoon skies will continue to
destabilize the air although staying well capped for any surface
based convection. Warm air advection had produced a few earlier rain
showers/weak elevated storms and RAP guidance continues to show
strong isentropic ascent through the mid-levels on the 305 K surface
through the afternoon. As a result will maintain low POPs through
this afternoon across central through southeast Oklahoma mainly east
and south of the I-44 corridor for a potential of isolated elevated
convection and/or showers. However this potential will decrease in
time (15-20%) as the low-level jet continues weakening along with
the strongest isentropic forcing both shifting more eastward as well
as CAM guidance. A system moving through the polar jet will be
pushing the aforementioned cold front into northern Oklahoma this
evening and stalling overnight near the I-40 corridor. Although
staying dry along the front, isentropic ascent from warm advection
just ahead of the front could reinitiate some elevated showers
and/or convection across central through southeast Oklahoma
generally east and south of I-44 through sunrise Sunday. Not
expecting anything severe with any of this elevated convection as
weak MUCAPE instability should limit any organization. However,
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with
sufficient D-CAPE values could support strong wind gusts and/or
small hail. NBM has a good handle on temperatures this afternoon as
we will stay unseasonably warm with much of our area seeing 80s
highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Our nearly stalled cold front is expected to linger along the I-40
corridor Sunday then finally push into southern Oklahoma to just
south of the Red River on Monday as reinforcing colder air surges in
from the northeast. NBM a bit warm-biased with the colder air so
used a slightly cooler CONSMOS guidance for Sunday's MaxT. Much of
northern Oklahoma will see a strong 20-25 degree cooldown from the
previous day. A series of vort max disturbances propagating
downstream through the mid-level ridging across southeast Kansas
could impact northcentral Oklahoma while still seeing potential
ascent over the frontal boundary in the mid-levels along several
isentropic surfaces. As a result will maintain elevated
showers/storm POPs keeping them along and east of the I-35 corridor
through late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. POP coverage
becomes more widespread across our area and highest (up to 50%) by
late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours as our stalled frontal
boundary makes a final push southward into northern Texas
potentially tapping into surface-based moisture. A series of vort
max's will also be increasing across our mid-levels keeping POPs in
the forecast for Sunday night. Both surface-based and elevated
instability still expected to be weak for any organized severe
storms, but still could see a few strong storms especially along the
frontal boundary which could produce gusty winds and small hail.
Although post-frontal on Monday much of the cooler air will linger
across our northern CWA as north winds weaken becoming light in the
afternoon. Our area will be dry and nearly POP free Monday
afternoon on with south winds gradually returning overnight for
moisture recovery before our next weather system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains
with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture
aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the
100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma.
Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with
a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible,
especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass
across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm
chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best
chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be
the greatest.
Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low
near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and
ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains
uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of
the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This
will play a key role in the timing and location of where the
greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even
heading into the first week of March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are ongoing across much of the area. An area of
agitated cumulus exists in southern and eastern Oklahoma from
which a few showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.
A wind shift is currently noted from Hollis toward Woodward, east
of southerly winds of 15-20 knots are noted. This wind shift will
move south and east, eventually bringing east-northeast
postfrontal winds to most sites tonight. Another round of showers
is expected to develop late tomorrow morning, this time across
northern Oklahoma.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 81 53 70 46 / 10 20 20 50
Hobart OK 81 52 71 43 / 0 10 10 50
Wichita Falls TX 86 58 81 53 / 10 20 10 40
Gage OK 78 41 60 33 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 79 43 55 39 / 10 10 40 50
Durant OK 80 58 79 57 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260228T1910.txt
193
FXUS64 KOUN 281739
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1139 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Very warm, near record breaking, temperatures expected on Saturday
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday evening.
- Rain and storm chances increase on Sunday with the arrival of a
cold front.
- A pattern change will bring additional rounds of showers and
storms through the first week of March.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Northwesterly flow will persist today with an upper ridge
rotating slowly eastward over Baja California and a longwave
trough axis translating eastward across the Upper Midwest and into
the Great Lakes. Weak lee troughing will be pushed eastward into
Oklahoma through the day today with north winds across portions of
northwest Oklahoma by the afternoon hours. Relatively little
change will occur to temperatures behind this weak surface
boundary during the day, so expect a continuation of above average
temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s. Wichita Falls is forecast for
a high of 86 degrees with a previous record of 87 degrees set
back in 2006.
A surface high parked over the southeast CONUS combined with the
southerly winds ahead of the surface trough will pump in warm moist
air. Thus early this morning, warm advection showers may develop
across southeast Oklahoma and into portions of central Oklahoma.
Dewpoints will rise into the 50s by the afternoon, but a lack of
moisture in the atmosphere will be a limiting factor to shower and
storm development and therefore if anything does develop, expect
very light accumulations. Warmer 850mb temperatures will creep into
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, which will leave the
best chances for any afternoon activity to south central and into
central Oklahoma.If a storm can develop, weak buoyancy of MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg but sufficient enough bulk shear of up to 50 knots
could give way to an isolated threat for small hail and gusty
winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Scattered shower and storm chances will increase again late Saturday
night, mainly east of I-44. Winds aloft will become westerly and
open the door for sub-tropical moisture around the northern
periphery of the upper ridge. Instability will remain limited, but
with the southward advancing front, elevated weak storms may be
possible. Overall, precipitation amounts are still expected to
remain light.
By Sunday morning, a post-frontal shallow cool and moist airmass
will give way to additional chances for scattered rain showers
across portions of northern and central Oklahoma. A few models are
hinting at the front retreating northward through the day Sunday,
which opens the door for warm air advection and increased
instability. Temperatures south of the front will rise into the 70s
to lower 80s, while behind the front temperatures will remain cooler
in the 50s to 60s. Shower and storm chances will increase Sunday
afternoon along and ahead of the frontal boundary (central into
southern Oklahoma) with a chance for additional showers north of the
front due to warm moist ascent over the frontal boundary. There may
be enough instability to support a strong to severe storm Sunday
afternoon. Showers will remain possible behind the front as it
pushes south into Texas Sunday night into Monday.
Most of the precipitation chances will diminish going into Monday
with weak ridging overhead ahead of an incoming shortwave trough.
Expect cooler, but still above average, post-frontal temperatures
and a return to a southerly surface wind by the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains
with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture
aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the
100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma.
Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with
a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible,
especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass
across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm
chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best
chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be
the greatest.
Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low
near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and
ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains
uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of
the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This
will play a key role in the timing and location of where the
greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even
heading into the first week of March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are ongoing across much of the area. An area of
agitated cumulus exists in southern and eastern Oklahoma from
which a few showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.
A wind shift is currently noted from Hollis toward Woodward, east
of southerly winds of 15-20 knots are noted. This wind shift will
move south and east, eventually bringing east-northeast
postfrontal winds to most sites tonight. Another round of showers
is expected to develop late tomorrow morning, this time across
northern Oklahoma.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 53 68 44 62 / 20 30 70 20
Hobart OK 52 76 42 65 / 10 20 60 10
Wichita Falls TX 57 82 51 72 / 20 20 40 10
Gage OK 43 59 32 58 / 0 10 20 10
Ponca City OK 43 53 37 57 / 10 40 60 30
Durant OK 56 77 55 73 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260228T1739.txt
