Home
195
FXUS64 KOUN 241049
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
549 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
- An isolated strong storm may be possible Sunday afternoon
across far southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Gusty
wind and small hail would be the primary hazards.
- Rain and storm chances will continue through most of the week
across portions of the area. Strong to severe storms may become
possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Decaying overnight storms may still be lingering in portions of
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas early this morning.
However, most of the activity will be weak with gusty winds and
lightning as the primary hazards.
The remainder of today is expected to stay mostly dry across the
area with a developing closed low over northern and central Texas.
Scattered to broken clouds will give way to peeks of sunshine and
temperatures warming into the 80s. Recent model guidance is hinting
at the potential for a few isolated storms to develop across north
Texas and far southern Oklahoma this afternoon with a potential
remnant MCV from the overnight convection. Bulk shear will be
overall weak, but the aforementioned area will have MLCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg which will support a strong to potentially severe
updraft with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards.
These storms will be short-lived and chances will decrease by the
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
The upper low will deepen over eastern Texas Monday with isolated to
scattered "popcorn" showers and storms through the afternoon. A few
of these storms may be on the northern periphery of the low and
enter north Texas and far southern Oklahoma. A few strong updrafts
couldn't be ruled out with any storms that develop. Similar to
Sunday, weak shear will bring an end to this activity by the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating.
Another shortwave will approach the southern Rockies Monday
afternoon with afternoon convection expected to develop along the
higher terrain in New Mexico and stretching into the High Plains.
There is a very low chance for storms to reach western Oklahoma
Monday evening due to weak steering flow aloft. If storms were to
develop and push east into the forecast area late Monday evening,
gusty winds would be the primary concern with decaying updrafts.
By Tuesday, the upper low will eject to the north with some
additional chances for showers and storms across central into
eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the shortwave to the west will swing
into the Southern Plains and bring increasing shower and storm
chances to western Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Similar to the previous few nights, storms
may continue to push eastward across the forecast area overnight
into early Wednesday morning. A few strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
The shortwave from Tuesday will still be moving over the Southern
Plains Wednesday and into Thursday with additional shower and storm
chances across much of the area. The next upper low will be nearly
stationary spinning over Nevada, which is partly why the shortwave
is slow moving to eject across the Southern Plains this week. There
is uncertainty in the track and evolution of this upper low out
west, which could bring additional shower and storms chances next
weekend. Looking at the National Blend of Models through next
weekend, the area with the highest chances for greater rainfall
totals over the 7 day period will be across western north Texas into
southern and central Oklahoma and decrease with northward extent.
However, the probabilities for at least half an inch of rainfall
across any portion of the forecast area in the next week remains
medium to high (40+%) with the greater chances lining up with the
areas previously mentioned in the last sentence.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected this morning. Conditions are
expected to improve to VFR by the early afternoon. Winds will
generally be weak and out of the southeast through the TAF period.
The best chance for seeing winds above 10kt will be across
northwestern Oklahoma by the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 83 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 86 62 88 62 / 10 10 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 85 62 88 63 / 20 10 0 0
Gage OK 85 62 87 62 / 0 10 30 10
Ponca City OK 82 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 85 65 85 66 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260524T1049.txt
574
FXUS64 KOUN 240656
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
156 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
- A line of storms will continue to push through western north
Texas and southwest Oklahoma early Sunday morning. A few storms
may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary
hazard.
- An isolated strong storm may be possible Sunday afternoon
across far southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Gusty
wind and small hail would be the primary hazards.
- Rain and storm chances will continue through most of the week
across portions of the area. Strong to severe storms may become
possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Decaying overnight storms may still be lingering in portions of
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas early this morning.
However, most of the activity will be weak with gusty winds and
lightning as the primary hazards.
The remainder of today is expected to stay mostly dry across the
area with a developing closed low over northern and central Texas.
Scattered to broken clouds will give way to peeks of sunshine and
temperatures warming into the 80s. Recent model guidance is hinting
at the potential for a few isolated storms to develop across north
Texas and far southern Oklahoma this afternoon with a potential
remnant MCV from the overnight convection. Bulk shear will be
overall weak, but the aforementioned area will have MLCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg which will support a strong to potentially severe
updraft with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards.
These storms will be short-lived and chances will decrease by the
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
The upper low will deepen over eastern Texas Monday with isolated to
scattered "popcorn" showers and storms through the afternoon. A few
of these storms may be on the northern periphery of the low and
enter north Texas and far southern Oklahoma. A few strong updrafts
couldn't be ruled out with any storms that develop. Similar to
Sunday, weak shear will bring an end to this activity by the evening
hours with the loss of daytime heating.
Another shortwave will approach the southern Rockies Monday
afternoon with afternoon convection expected to develop along the
higher terrain in New Mexico and stretching into the High Plains.
There is a very low chance for storms to reach western Oklahoma
Monday evening due to weak steering flow aloft. If storms were to
develop and push east into the forecast area late Monday evening,
gusty winds would be the primary concern with decaying updrafts.
By Tuesday, the upper low will eject to the north with some
additional chances for showers and storms across central into
eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the shortwave to the west will swing
into the Southern Plains and bring increasing shower and storm
chances to western Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Similar to the previous few nights, storms
may continue to push eastward across the forecast area overnight
into early Wednesday morning. A few strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
The shortwave from Tuesday will still be moving over the Southern
Plains Wednesday and into Thursday with additional shower and storm
chances across much of the area. The next upper low will be nearly
stationary spinning over Nevada, which is partly why the shortwave
is slow moving to eject across the Southern Plains this week. There
is uncertainty in the track and evolution of this upper low out
west, which could bring additional shower and storms chances next
weekend. Looking at the National Blend of Models through next
weekend, the area with the highest chances for greater rainfall
totals over the 7 day period will be across western north Texas into
southern and central Oklahoma and decrease with northward extent.
However, the probabilities for at least half an inch of rainfall
across any portion of the forecast area in the next week remains
medium to high (40+%) with the greater chances lining up with the
areas previously mentioned in the last sentence.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Showers and storms across the panhandles are weakening but there
is still a low chance they could reach KLAW/KSPS later tonight.
Otherwise, the remainder of the area is expected to see dry
conditions with light east/southeast winds. Expect this to
continue into the day Sunday, with a slight uptick in speeds
across northwest OK by late afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 83 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 86 62 88 62 / 10 10 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 85 62 88 63 / 20 10 0 0
Gage OK 85 62 87 62 / 0 10 30 10
Ponca City OK 82 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 85 65 85 66 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260524T0656.txt
238
FXUS64 KOUN 240342
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- A few strong to severe storms could be possible into tonight
mainly across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary
hazards.
- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing
rain and storm chances return again mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Two MCVs are moving across the area today. One MCV has been moving
across the fa all morning and was centered near Osage county around
mid-day. Another smaller MCV has developed near the OK/KS border and
was over Alfalfa county at mid-day as well. The MCVs has continued
shower and some thunderstorm development across portions of the fa
this morning. The MCVs are expected to move east across the area
this afternoon, although the larger one has slowed down compared to
earlier this morning. The MCVs will help maintain shower/storm
chances across northern and eastern portions of the fa through the
afternoon.
Some of the CAMs show some new scattered storm development possible
in NW portions of the fa near an outflow boundary this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty whether activity will develop into NW
portions of the fa due to the affects from the morning activity and
how much recovery can occur. However, there has been some clearing
in this area allowing for heating and radar shows a storm has
developed near this boundary in the eastern TX panhandle.
Instability of 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible in this area so if
these storms do develop into the area, they could become strong to
maybe severe.
Later this afternoon, models also show storms developing in the High
Plains of west TX and NM. This activity is expected to move E and SE
and could eventually move into western/southwestern portions of the
fa later this evening/overnight. With the lack of a strong LLJ to
help maintain development, this activity is expected to be weakening
as it moves into the area but a few storms could still be
strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The
showers/storms are expected to end/move out of the fa late
tonight/early Sunday.
Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with
highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will then fall into the
50s and 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A brief dry period is expected for most of the area Sunday and
Monday. Models show an upper low meandering across TX during this
time before lifting north towards the fa Monday night. This will
keep rain chances out of much of the fa until the upper low moves
closer although if the low tracks closer to the fa than models are
showing some rain chances would be possible across southern portions
of the fa.
Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average
across the area both Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday
with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected
to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and
embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low
digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the
week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after
developing along the higher terrain to the west.
However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in
the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the
system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but
if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and
storms chances could continue through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Showers and storms across the panhandles are weakening but there
is still a low chance they could reach KLAW/KSPS later tonight.
Otherwise, the remainder of the area is expected to see dry
conditions with light east/southeast winds. Expect this to
continue into the day Sunday, with a slight uptick in speeds
across northwest OK by late afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 79 62 81 63 / 30 10 0 0
Hobart OK 81 60 84 61 / 30 30 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 83 62 84 62 / 40 40 10 0
Gage OK 75 55 83 60 / 60 30 0 0
Ponca City OK 77 59 81 61 / 80 10 0 0
Durant OK 82 66 82 66 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260524T0342.txt
032
FXUS64 KOUN 232333
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
633 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- A few strong to severe storms could be possible into tonight
mainly across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary
hazards.
- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing
rain and storm chances return again mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Two MCVs are moving across the area today. One MCV has been moving
across the fa all morning and was centered near Osage county around
mid-day. Another smaller MCV has developed near the OK/KS border and
was over Alfalfa county at mid-day as well. The MCVs has continued
shower and some thunderstorm development across portions of the fa
this morning. The MCVs are expected to move east across the area
this afternoon, although the larger one has slowed down compared to
earlier this morning. The MCVs will help maintain shower/storm
chances across northern and eastern portions of the fa through the
afternoon.
Some of the CAMs show some new scattered storm development possible
in NW portions of the fa near an outflow boundary this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty whether activity will develop into NW
portions of the fa due to the affects from the morning activity and
how much recovery can occur. However, there has been some clearing
in this area allowing for heating and radar shows a storm has
developed near this boundary in the eastern TX panhandle.
Instability of 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible in this area so if
these storms do develop into the area, they could become strong to
maybe severe.
Later this afternoon, models also show storms developing in the High
Plains of west TX and NM. This activity is expected to move E and SE
and could eventually move into western/southwestern portions of the
fa later this evening/overnight. With the lack of a strong LLJ to
help maintain development, this activity is expected to be weakening
as it moves into the area but a few storms could still be
strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The
showers/storms are expected to end/move out of the fa late
tonight/early Sunday.
Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with
highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will then fall into the
50s and 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A brief dry period is expected for most of the area Sunday and
Monday. Models show an upper low meandering across TX during this
time before lifting north towards the fa Monday night. This will
keep rain chances out of much of the fa until the upper low moves
closer although if the low tracks closer to the fa than models are
showing some rain chances would be possible across southern portions
of the fa.
Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average
across the area both Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday
with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected
to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and
embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low
digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the
week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after
developing along the higher terrain to the west.
However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in
the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the
system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but
if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and
storms chances could continue through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Light east or southeast winds are expected tonight into tomorrow
across much of the area wit mainly VFR ceilings. Low chances for
storms are possible across southwest OK into western north TX late
tonight into tomorrow morning, otherwise the rest of the area is
expected to stay dry.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 60 84 61 86 / 30 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 62 84 62 85 / 40 10 0 0
Gage OK 55 83 60 86 / 30 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 59 81 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 66 82 66 83 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260523T2333.txt
589
FXUS64 KOUN 231830
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- A few strong to severe storms could be possible into tonight
mainly across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary
hazards.
- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing
rain and storm chances return again mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Two MCVs are moving across the area today. One MCV has been moving
across the fa all morning and was centered near Osage county around
mid-day. Another smaller MCV has developed near the OK/KS border and
was over Alfalfa county at mid-day as well. The MCVs has continued
shower and some thunderstorm development across portions of the fa
this morning. The MCVs are expected to move east across the area
this afternoon, although the larger one has slowed down compared to
earlier this morning. The MCVs will help maintain shower/storm
chances across northern and eastern portions of the fa through the
afternoon.
Some of the CAMs show some new scattered storm development possible
in NW portions of the fa near an outflow boundary this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty whether activity will develop into NW
portions of the fa due to the affects from the morning activity and
how much recovery can occur. However, there has been some clearing
in this area allowing for heating and radar shows a storm has
developed near this boundary in the eastern TX panhandle.
Instability of 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible in this area so if
these storms do develop into the area, they could become strong to
maybe severe.
Later this afternoon, models also show storms developing in the High
Plains of west TX and NM. This activity is expected to move E and SE
and could eventually move into western/southwestern portions of the
fa later this evening/overnight. With the lack of a strong LLJ to
help maintain development, this activity is expected to be weakening
as it moves into the area but a few storms could still be
strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. The
showers/storms are expected to end/move out of the fa late
tonight/early Sunday.
Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected this afternoon with
highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will then fall into the
50s and 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A brief dry period is expected for most of the area Sunday and
Monday. Models show an upper low meandering across TX during this
time before lifting north towards the fa Monday night. This will
keep rain chances out of much of the fa until the upper low moves
closer although if the low tracks closer to the fa than models are
showing some rain chances would be possible across southern portions
of the fa.
Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average
across the area both Sunday and Monday with highs in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday
with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected
to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and
embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low
digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the
week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after
developing along the higher terrain to the west.
However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in
the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the
system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but
if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and
storms chances could continue through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming period.
Chances for scattered rain/thunder will persist through this
evening across northern Oklahoma, especially at KWWR & KPNC.
Another round of (likely decaying) activity is expected to arrive
late tonight/early Sunday and offer potential for brief category
reductions near and south of the Red River.
Also monitoring increasing potential for areas of stratus and/or
fog across the eastern one-half of Oklahoma during the predawn
hours on Sunday. For now, have only included reduced category
(MVFR) at KDUA during this time, though expansion in time/space is
possible at later updates.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 60 84 61 86 / 30 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 62 84 62 85 / 40 10 0 0
Gage OK 55 83 60 86 / 30 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 59 81 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 66 82 66 83 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260523T1830.txt
681
FXUS64 KOUN 231653
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- A few strong to severe storms may be possible late tonight
across far western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas.
Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.
- Sunday and Monday may feature a drier period before increasing
rain and storm chances return again mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A line of storms will be pushing through the eastern portions of the
forecast area by around sunrise. Most of the severe threat will have
ended and much of the activity will come as much needed rain.
However, a few strong updrafts may persist with enough elevated
instability for small hail and gusty winds.
In the wake of the convection this morning, clouds should begin to
break by the afternoon hours and temperatures will still rise to
near normal in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This afternoon will likely
feature a lull in any precipitation before another disturbance aloft
helps to kick off afternoon convection along the higher terrain in
New Mexico and into West Texas. See the short term for more details
on the storm potential late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Weak westerly steering flow aloft will bring storms towards western
Oklahoma and western north Texas by late tonight, likely after 10
PM. Shear will once again be minimal with a lack of a low-level jet
to keep storms going overnight. However, there will be enough MUCAPE
500-1500 J/kg that will support a few strong to severe updrafts as
they enter the area. Similar to last night, the updrafts may be
pulse-like at first but eventually weaken/decay as they continue
eastward into south central Oklahoma and north Texas.
Sunday and Monday will feature our driest days in the forecast with
a break in precipitation as an upper low develops in north Texas and
brings weak northerly flow aloft. Should see some sunshine return
with temperatures remaining near or slightly above normal in the
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The upper low to the south in Texas will lift northward by Tuesday
with southwesterly flow returning aloft. Rain chances are expected
to return Tuesday and Wednesday with the subtropical jet and
embedded disturbances in the flow ahead of a strong upper low
digging into the Pacific Northwest. Similarly to earlier in the
week, most of the storms are likely to be late in the evening after
developing along the higher terrain to the west.
However, towards the end of the week, there is some discrepancies in
the evolution of this next trough/low. Brief ridging ahead of the
system could bring another day or two of lull in precipitation, but
if the system continues to eject eastward, then additional rain and
storms chances could continue through next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming period.
Chances for scattered rain/thunder will persist through this
evening across northern Oklahoma, especially at KWWR & KPNC.
Another round of (likely decaying) activity is expected to arrive
late tonight/early Sunday and offer potential for brief category
reductions near and south of the Red River.
Also monitoring increasing potential for areas of stratus and/or
fog across the eastern one-half of Oklahoma during the predawn
hours on Sunday. For now, have only included reduced category
(MVFR) at KDUA during this time, though expansion in time/space is
possible at later updates.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 79 62 81 63 / 50 20 10 0
Hobart OK 81 60 84 61 / 30 40 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 83 62 83 62 / 20 40 10 10
Gage OK 76 54 84 60 / 40 20 0 10
Ponca City OK 78 59 81 61 / 70 10 0 0
Durant OK 83 66 82 66 / 60 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20260523T1653.txt
