358 
FXUS64 KAMA 072250
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
450 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

No impactful weather expected within the next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Persistent cloud cover in the NE zone of our CWA will aid in keeping 
temperatures much below normal. While the rest of the Panhandles 
should reside in the 50's, our northeastern counties may not rise 
above the 40's for highs today. Clouds will erode slowly today and 
winds should continue to be light. Lows tonight should increase 
slightly into the 30's, but mostly clear skies overnight will allow 
a few areas to dip into the 20's again. Tomorrow, surface winds flip 
back from the southwest and highs will increase to the upper 50's 
and lower 60's. 

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest flow will continue over our area this week as the upper 
level trough evolves across the eastern CONUS. Forecast mid level 
temperatures increase on Tuesday and possibly also Thursday this 
week. Meanwhile, there are still some uncertainties as to how much 
WAA will factor into the temperature shift. Tuesday still looks to 
be breezy given model confidence of a tightening pressure gradient 
from a surface low set to develop off the lee side of the Rockies in 
SE Colorado and NE New Mexico. However, the latest 12Z NBM shows 
winds lower than older runs across the CWA. Even the 90th Percentile 
struggles to bring winds up to 15 kts during the afternoon. The 
probability of reaching 70 degrees is low on Tuesday, except for 
PDC, but we won't rule out additional locations exiting the 60's if 
the winds end up stronger than forecast. (When does that ever 
happen...)

The rest of the week still looks to support benign weather 
conditions. Thursday looks to be as warm as Tuesday, even though our 
next cold front is progged to move through the High Plains Thursday 
afternoon. More long range ensemble members are showing some higher 
confidence of colder temperatures this weekend, and even the NBM is 
slowly catching on to the new trend. Though moisture still looks to 
remain absent, we may have another chance to be removed from these 
above normal temperatures. 

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
Winds will mostly be less than 10 kts throughout this period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251207T2250.txt



272 
FXUS64 KAMA 071742
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

No impactful weather expected within the next seven days.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Persistent cloud cover in the NE zone of our CWA will aid in keeping 
temperatures much below normal. While the rest of the Panhandles 
should reside in the 50's, our northeastern counties may not rise 
above the 40's for highs today. Clouds will erode slowly today and 
winds should continue to be light. Lows tonight should increase 
slightly into the 30's, but mostly clear skies overnight will allow 
a few areas to dip into the 20's again. Tomorrow, surface winds flip 
back from the southwest and highs will increase to the upper 50's 
and lower 60's. 

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Northwest flow will continue over our area this week as the upper 
level trough evolves across the eastern CONUS. Forecast mid level 
temperatures increase on Tuesday and possibly also Thursday this 
week. Meanwhile, there are still some uncertainties as to how much 
WAA will factor into the temperature shift. Tuesday still looks to 
be breezy given model confidence of a tightening pressure gradient 
from a surface low set to develop off the lee side of the Rockies in 
SE Colorado and NE New Mexico. However, the latest 12Z NBM shows 
winds lower than older runs across the CWA. Even the 90th Percentile 
struggles to bring winds up to 15 kts during the afternoon. The 
probability of reaching 70 degrees is low on Tuesday, except for 
PDC, but we won't rule out additional locations exiting the 60's if 
the winds end up stronger than forecast. (When does that ever 
happen...)

The rest of the week still looks to support benign weather 
conditions. Thursday looks to be as warm as Tuesday, even though our 
next cold front is progged to move through the High Plains Thursday 
afternoon. More long range ensemble members are showing some higher 
confidence of colder temperatures this weekend, and even the NBM is 
slowly catching on to the new trend. Though moisture still looks to 
remain absent, we may have another chance to be removed from these 
above normal temperatures. 

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

No major chances were made for the 18Z TAF period.

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will
be light and somewhat variable. Cloud decks should will remain
above the first 10,000 ft.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251207T1742.txt



435 
FXUS64 KAMA 071040
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
440 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Benign weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected
  from Monday through at least Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Benign weather is anticipated for Sunday as the Panhandles will be 
solidly behind a cold front. Weak winds, cooler than normal temps, 
and a few clouds can be expected. 

A shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles Monday morning from 
the northwest and a surface low will develop on the lee side of the 
Rockies. Southerly to southwesterly winds will be present across 
much of the area except perhaps the northwestern combined 
Panhandles. These winds could be borderline breezy in the southern 
and eastern Panhandles, but regardless these winds contribute to 
temperatures warming into the mid- to upper-50s. 

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place on Tuesday and through 
much of the long-term period. Another trough embedded in the flow 
aloft will move toward the Panhandles on Tuesday with a surface low 
developing in the vicinity of NE New Mexico/SE Colorado. This will 
likely cause the southwesterly surface winds to strengthen to 10-20 
mph during the day. 850mb temperatures are projected to be between 
the 75th and 90th percentile, which combined with downsloping 
southwesterly winds, will cause temperatures to warm into the mid to 
upper-60s. There is a 30-50% chance for highs to exceed 70 degrees 
in the northwestern combined Panhandles and a 10-25% chance in the 
southern and eastern combined Panhandles. A weak cold front is 
forecast to move through Tuesday night as the previously mentioned 
surface low moves off to the southeast.

A more potent trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on 
Wednesday and progress east-southeastward through Wednesday night 
and Thursday. Operational and ensemble member guidance is coming 
into slightly better agreement compared to 12-24 hours ago regarding 
a potentially stronger cold front moving in on Thursday with colder 
air settling in for Friday and into the weekend.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Winds will most likely be weak through the next 24
hours as well. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251207T1040.txt



912 
FXUS64 KAMA 070458
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Benign weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected
  from Monday through at least Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Benign weather is anticipated for Sunday as the Panhandles will be 
solidly behind a cold front. Weak winds, cooler than normal temps, 
and a few clouds can be expected. 

A shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles Monday morning from 
the northwest and a surface low will develop on the lee side of the 
Rockies. Southerly to southwesterly winds will be present across 
much of the area except perhaps the northwestern combined 
Panhandles. These winds could be borderline breezy in the southern 
and eastern Panhandles, but regardless these winds contribute to 
temperatures warming into the mid- to upper-50s. 

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place on Tuesday and through 
much of the long-term period. Another trough embedded in the flow 
aloft will move toward the Panhandles on Tuesday with a surface low 
developing in the vicinity of NE New Mexico/SE Colorado. This will 
likely cause the southwesterly surface winds to strengthen to 10-20 
mph during the day. 850mb temperatures are projected to be between 
the 75th and 90th percentile, which combined with downsloping 
southwesterly winds, will cause temperatures to warm into the mid to 
upper-60s. There is a 30-50% chance for highs to exceed 70 degrees 
in the northwestern combined Panhandles and a 10-25% chance in the 
southern and eastern combined Panhandles. A weak cold front is 
forecast to move through Tuesday night as the previously mentioned 
surface low moves off to the southeast.

A more potent trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on 
Wednesday and progress east-southeastward through Wednesday night 
and Thursday. Operational and ensemble member guidance is coming 
into slightly better agreement compared to 12-24 hours ago regarding 
a potentially stronger cold front moving in on Thursday with colder 
air settling in for Friday and into the weekend.

Vanden Bosch


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions expected through at least the next 24 hours. Winds
will weaken through the night, then gradually weaken through the
day Sunday. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251207T0458.txt



290 
FXUS64 KAMA 062306
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
506 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

This afternoon, strong westerly winds in the southwestern Texas 
Panhandle may create some minor adverse conditions for certain 
outdoor activities. Typical breezy winds can be expected 
throughout the rest of the area. 

Fire weather conditions should remain near or below elevated in
the southwest today. Continue to practice fire safety in those
areas and obey burn bans.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The main highlights of the short term this period are the 
fluctuating temperatures and wind speeds. Today, a tight surface 
pressure gradient wind amplify winds across the CWA. The southwest 
Texas Panhandle should experience the strongest wind speeds today, 
with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A surface low will develop over 
the region later today, ahead of the incoming cold front. This will 
help wind speeds decrease later this evening. There are some 
concerns that wind speeds could be lighter overall today given how 
RAP Mesoanalysis shows observed winds lower and MSL pressure broader 
than the RAP forecast. Winds will still increase as the day 
progresses, but they might not get as strong as previous forecast or 
for nearly as long. Later this evening, a cold front will move in 
and winds will become light and northerly. Highs today should reach 
the 60's area wide, but temperatures will decrease quickly behind 
the front.

Tomorrow, highs are expected to return to near average values in the 
40's and 50's. Though sky coverage is expected to remain mostly 
clear, surface winds should prevail from the north through most of 
the day. Unlike today, wind speeds are forecast to be much lighter 
overall throughout the CWA.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The general pattern in the extended still consists of benign weather 
with a couple of cold fronts to help us stay in range of our average 
highs for the season. 500 mb heights show high pressure building 
over the western CONUS this upcoming week. This will force upper 
level trough activity further east, leaving our FA in the middle of 
this activity. High temperatures will be bound to the 50's and 60's, 
while morning lows will rise from 20's to 30's by the midweek. Some 
models like the operational GFS hint at a cold airmass settling 
further west into the region by next weekend, but there still isn't 
much consistency amongst long range models to definitively 
anticipate a more substantial cool down. The lack of moisture 
advection will also keep weather conditions dry in the extended. 
Surface winds will have to be monitored on a day-to-day basis if 
fire weather conditions become more prevalent. 

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
A cold front will move in this evening and low-level wind shear
will be possible behind the front for a brief period of time at
KAMA and KDHT. Otherwise, winds weaken through tonight and remain
weak through Sunday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20251206T2306.txt