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342
FXUS64 KAMA 161138
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, which could lead to severe wind gusts
and localized flash flooding.
- High pressure is expected to build back in this week resulting
in another round of widespread triple-digit temperatures.
- A new system moving into our east mid-week may result in
similar shower and thunderstorms opportunity as last week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Present CAMs continue to see the Panhandles stay active today as
we look to deal with two different lifting mechanism driving storm
production in our south and northwest. The first of these
mechanism looks to be a weak frontal boundary that could be our
key to see storms across the Southern and Central portions of the
Texas Panhandles. The issue with this mechanism, however, is going
to be on the final placement of the boundary, which will effect
how far south storm will actually start. Overnight CAMs have
suggest that this boundary will likely settle a county or so south
our CWA, which does bring better chances of activity reaching the
I-40 corridor. While this has been a more recent trend, it does
line up better with what radar imagery saw last night. Given this,
we have decided to spread our chances of precipitation further
south then previously forecasted. As for the second lifting
mechanism, much like yesterday, look for a new short-wave to aid
in forcing activity off the Southern Front Range and into the
Northwestern Panhandles. As for impacts, expected instability is
roughly as good as it was yesterday with areas working with around
1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, a distinct lack of wind
shear for tomorrow is expected to keep most of these storms more
vertical making it hard to stay organized long enough to produce
much in terms of hail. Instead concern will be more focused on the
potential for damaging winds and localized flooding. As it
stands, current CAMs are seeing around 1200 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE
that could result in some down burst winds pushing 60 to 70 mph.
Meanwhile, PWAT values for tomorrow continue to trend higher than
yesterday’s activity with some areas peaking over the 1.5 inch
mark. This could lead to much better rainfall rates and localized
flash flooding, especially in urban environments and areas that
have already seen decent rainfall from yesterday. Otherwise look
for slightly cooler temperatures for the afternoon with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s.
Moving into Monday, models do see the upper-level high pressure
system start to retrograde back west towards the Panhandles. This
movement will be start of the Panhandles warming back up and
drying back out. Still chances of isolated thunderstorms do look
remain present for the north that afternoon and evening albeit at
only around a 10 to 20 percent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Model agreement continues to trend towards the current upper-level
high retrograding back west during the course of next week. This
retrograde will eventually see said high back over the Panhandles
resulting in a return of the more widespread triple-digit
temperatures for Tuesday alongside the potential need for another
round of heat related products. Unfortunately this return of high
pressure will see our chances of storms drop off for the day as
well. However, present GFS and ECMWF runs have finally gotten into
better agreement on the supposed trough digging south sometime
Wednesday into Thursday. Currently these runs have see the main
axis of the trough further east then what the GFS was initially
trying to do, which will keep keep us out of the main activity
push from the trough unfortunately. However, this position does
open the Panhandles to some very good northwesterly upper-level
flow, which will be beneficial in seeing storms push off the
mountains to our west and into our area once again. Present
ensembles have also picked up on the idea with current NBM now
giving us a 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing precipitation in our
west and north clear into Friday evening. However, given that this
high have been staying very potent in most of the model runs
confidence in these chances holding out are not too high. For now,
look for temperatures in the upper 90s to triple-digits to be the
norm for the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Scattered thunderstorms are expected for much of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening, leading to PROB30 groups for KAMA
and KDHT. KGUY may need PROB30 groups as well, but recent
southward trends in storm activity have led to lower confidence.
Winds will be 10 kts or less turning from variable directions
throughout the period. Prevailing sky conditions should be VFR at
all sites over the next 24 hrs.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260816T1138.txt
386
FXUS64 KAMA 160551
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, which could lead to severe thunderstorms
and localized flash flooding.
- High pressure is expected to build back in to start next week
resulting in another round of widespread triple-digit
temperatures.
- A new system moving into our east mid-week may result in
similar shower and thunderstorms opportunity as last week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Present CAMs continue to see the Panhandles stay active today as
we look to deal with two different lifting mechanism driving storm
production in our south and northwest. The first of these
mechanism looks to be a weak frontal boundary that could be our
key to see storms across the Southern and Central portions of the
Texas Panhandles. The issue with this mechanism, however, is going
to be on the final placement of the boundary, which will effect
how far south storm will actually start. Overnight CAMs have
suggest that this boundary will likely settle a county or so south
our CWA, which does bring better chances of activity reaching the
I-40 corridor. While this has been a more recent trend, it does
line up better with what radar imagery saw last night. Given this,
we have decided to spread our chances of precipitation further
south then previously forecasted. As for the second lifting
mechanism, much like yesterday, look for a new short-wave to aid
in forcing activity off the Southern Front Range and into the
Northwestern Panhandles. As for impacts, expected instability is
roughly as good as it was yesterday with areas working with around
1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, a distinct lack of wind
shear for tomorrow is expected to keep most of these storms more
vertical making it hard to stay organized long enough to produce
much in terms of hail. Instead concern will be more focused on the
potential for damaging winds and localized flooding. As it
stands, current CAMs are seeing around 1200 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE
that could result in some down burst winds pushing 60 to 70 mph.
Meanwhile, PWAT values for tomorrow continue to trend higher than
yesterday’s activity with some areas peaking over the 1.5 inch
mark. This could lead to much better rainfall rates and localized
flash flooding, especially in urban environments and areas that
have already seen decent rainfall from yesterday. Otherwise look
for slightly cooler temperatures for the afternoon with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s.
Moving into Monday, models do see the upper-level high pressure
system start to retrograde back west towards the Panhandles. This
movement will be start of the Panhandles warming back up and
drying back out. Still chances of isolated thunderstorms do look
remain present for the north that afternoon and evening albeit at
only around a 10 to 20 percent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Model agreement continues to trend towards the current upper-level
high retrograding back west during the course of next week. This
retrograde will eventually see said high back over the Panhandles
resulting in a return of the more widespread triple-digit
temperatures for Tuesday alongside the potential need for another
round of heat related products. Unfortunately this return of high
pressure will see our chances of storms drop off for the day as
well. However, present GFS and ECMWF runs have finally gotten into
better agreement on the supposed trough digging south sometime
Wednesday into Thursday. Currently these runs have see the main
axis of the trough further east then what the GFS was initially
trying to do, which will keep keep us out of the main activity
push from the trough unfortunately. However, this position does
open the Panhandles to some very good northwesterly upper-level
flow, which will be beneficial in seeing storms push off the
mountains to our west and into our area once again. Present
ensembles have also picked up on the idea with current NBM now
giving us a 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing precipitation in our
west and north clear into Friday evening. However, given that this
high have been staying very potent in most of the model runs
confidence in these chances holding out are not too high. For now,
look for temperatures in the upper 90s to triple-digits to be the
norm for the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Present radar has continue to see the front boundary have a much
better push south than initial models have expect. This has
resulted in some vicinity thunderstorms around KAMA with both KDHT
and KGUY have much longer last storm impacts as well. These
impacts to the terminals are likely to continue through the next
couple of hours with storms looking to be rather quick to die off
now that the front is further south. Still look for broken to
scatter cloud bases to be present through sunrise for all of the
terminals albeit with VFR level in terms of CIGS. Otherwise,
another round of showers and thunderstorms remain possible
tomorrow afternoon and evening, with confidence now growing that
KAMA will likely see the first impacts in the mid to late
afternoon timeframe.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260816T0551.txt
960
FXUS64 KAMA 152231
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the
weekend with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms each
day.
- Localized flash flooding is also possible with thunderstorms
this weekend, favoring the northwest combined Panhandles.
- Drier and hotter conditions look to return next week with
widespread temperatures at or above 100 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Latest 16Z obs in the mid levels shows 2 notable perturbations
within the western periphery of the main anti-cyclonic feature.
The first is moving ENE across western NM and the second in moving
NNW just past the Rio Grande River. Main areas of lift out ahead
of both perturbations, coupled with convective temps of mid to
upper 90s to likely be achieved, areas of showers and
thunderstorms along the eastern NM Plains expanding east into the
western Panhandles is expected. Some of the latest CAM and hi-res
data also are picking up on a relatively weak sfc convergence
boundary setting up just along and north of the Canadian River
from roughly Adrian to Channing to Dumas to Waka. This secondary
area of convergence could also generate some storms during peak
heating of the day. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to
severe in intensity, especially early on. Notable up-drafts in a
rather anemic effective shear environment that is more discrete
could support some large hail up to 1-1.25", especially for the
western Panhandles. As we continue into the evening hours,
damaging wind threat will be more probable as multi-cell storm
mode and/or forward propagating outflow/cold pools should be the
main storm mode. Along with severe wind and hail hazards, slow
moving and/or training storms in a PWAT environment of 75-99th
percentile, cannot rule out localized flash flooding. Residual
showers and low topped storms could trickle into the early
portions of the overnight period before conditions improve. High
temperatures this afternoon likely to still range from the mid 90s
to 105 in PDC, where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.
Potential rinse and repeat four Sunday, favoring the northern
Panhandles once again for diurnally driven shower and storms,
where we cannot rule out a strong to severe storms. But this time,
the activity High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid
80s in the NW to upper 90s to near 100 in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Not much of an exact accord between the latest global model
guidance for the long term forecast period. The slight majority
has the main H500 high and its center building over the Panhandles
by mid week drying out. Potential for other mid level disturbances
grazing the northern Panhandles with rain chances towards the end
of the forecast period, but confidence remain low for rain
chances at this time. High temperatures continue to be above
average as we go past mid August.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Thunderstorms this evening will be the main forecast concern this
evening, primarily for Dalhart and Guymon. Thunderstorms may
produce strong downdrafts. Expecting light and variable winds
with VFR conditions after Midnight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260815T2231.txt
184
FXUS64 KAMA 151730
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the
weekend with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms each
day.
- Localized flash flooding is also possible with thunderstorms
this weekend, favoring the northwest combined Panhandles.
- Drier and hotter conditions look to return next week with
widespread temperatures at or above 100 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Latest 16Z obs in the mid levels shows 2 notable perturbations
within the western periphery of the main anti-cyclonic feature.
The first is moving ENE across western NM and the second in moving
NNW just past the Rio Grande River. Main areas of lift out ahead
of both perturbations, coupled with convective temps of mid to
upper 90s to likely be achieved, areas of showers and
thunderstorms along the eastern NM Plains expanding east into the
western Panhandles is expected. Some of the latest CAM and hi-res
data also are picking up on a relatively weak sfc convergence
boundary setting up just along and north of the Canadian River
from roughly Adrian to Channing to Dumas to Waka. This secondary
area of convergence could also generate some storms during peak
heating of the day. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to
severe in intensity, especially early on. Notable up-drafts in a
rather anemic effective shear environment that is more discrete
could support some large hail up to 1-1.25", especially for the
western Panhandles. As we continue into the evening hours,
damaging wind threat will be more probable as multi-cell storm
mode and/or forward propagating outflow/cold pools should be the
main storm mode. Along with severe wind and hail hazards, slow
moving and/or training storms in a PWAT environment of 75-99th
percentile, cannot rule out localized flash flooding. Residual
showers and low topped storms could trickle into the early
portions of the overnight period before conditions improve. High
temperatures this afternoon likely to still range from the mid 90s
to 105 in PDC, where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.
Potential rinse and repeat four Sunday, favoring the northern
Panhandles once again for diurnally driven shower and storms,
where we cannot rule out a strong to severe storms. But this time,
the activity High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid
80s in the NW to upper 90s to near 100 in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Not much of an exact accord between the latest global model
guidance for the long term forecast period. The slight majority
has the main H500 high and its center building over the Panhandles
by mid week drying out. Potential for other mid level disturbances
grazing the northern Panhandles with rain chances towards the end
of the forecast period, but confidence remain low for rain
chances at this time. High temperatures continue to be above
average as we go past mid August.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF
period. The only exception could be at KGUY with PROB30 group just
before 06Z for TSRA potential where erratic winds from storms are
possible. Could also see that just after 00Z for KDHT, but
confidence not high enough to include in forecast. AMD are
possible early on in TAF period. Winds will be variable at 5-10
kts with higher gusts at times.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260815T1730.txt
832
FXUS64 KAMA 151713
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through the
weekend with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms each
day.
- Localized flash flooding is also possible with thunderstorms
this weekend, favoring the northwest combined Panhandles.
- Drier and hotter conditions look to return next week with
widespread temperatures at or above 100 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Latest 16Z obs in the mid levels shows 2 notable perturbations
within the western periphery of the main anti-cyclonic feature.
The first is moving ENE across western NM and the second in moving
NNW just past the Rio Grande River. Main areas of lift out ahead
of both perturbations, coupled with convective temps of mid to
upper 90s to likely be achieved, areas of showers and
thunderstorms along the eastern NM Plains expanding east into the
western Panhandles is expected. Some of the latest CAM and hi-res
data also are picking up on a relatively weak sfc convergence
boundary setting up just along and north of the Canadian River
from roughly Adrian to Channing to Dumas to Waka. This secondary
area of convergence could also generate some storms during peak
heating of the day. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to
severe in intensity, especially early on. Notable up-drafts in a
rather anemic effective shear environment that is more discrete
could support some large hail up to 1-1.25", especially for the
western Panhandles. As we continue into the evening hours,
damaging wind threat will be more probable as multi-cell storm
mode and/or forward propagating outflow/cold pools should be the
main storm mode. Along with severe wind and hail hazards, slow
moving and/or training storms in a PWAT environment of 75-99th
percentile, cannot rule out localized flash flooding. Residual
showers and low topped storms could trickle into the early
portions of the overnight period before conditions improve. High
temperatures this afternoon likely to still range from the mid 90s
to 105 in PDC, where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.
Potential rinse and repeat four Sunday, favoring the northern
Panhandles once again for diurnally driven shower and storms,
where we cannot rule out a strong to severe storms. But this time,
the activity High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid
80s in the NW to upper 90s to near 100 in the SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Not much of an exact accord between the latest global model
guidance for the long term forecast period. The slight majority
has the main H500 high and its center building over the Panhandles
by mid week drying out. Potential for other mid level disturbances
grazing the northern Panhandles with rain chances towards the end
of the forecast period, but confidence remain low for rain
chances at this time. High temperatures continue to be above
average as we go past mid August.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Scattered storms are expected in the vicinity of KGUY and KDHT
this evening, possibly lingering into the overnight hours, so
PROB30 groups are included at both sites. Any storms could produce
strong wind gusts greater than 40 kts. Prevailing winds will be
primarily out of the south today at 10-15 kts, but breezier gusts
up to 25 kts could occur at KAMA. Winds will become more light and
variable behind a boundary overnight, but could occasionally
settle out of the north at times.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260815T1713.txt
