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318
FXUS64 KAMA 241129
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- There will be a low chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday,
favoring the western combined Panhandles. Severe storms are not
anticipated, but cannot rule out a rogue gusts exceeding 58 mph.
- Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the next shot at widespread
rainfall across the region.
- After Tuesday daily thunderstorm chances continue through the
forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Upper level ridging is expected to build over the combined
Panhandles over the next couple of days. This ridge will bring
afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 80s both today and
Monday. Right now looking at a 20 to maybe 30 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the area for this afternoon.
However, despite a decent amount of H7 theta-e advection, upper
level support is expected to be lacking. Convective initiation
will depend solely on reaching convective temperatures with any
activity waning towards sunset. Also, lack of shear will allow
any storms to collapse on themselves and not be very long lived
and pose a threat for strong wind gusts. Monday, is expected to
be a repeat of isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms favoring
the western combined Panhandles.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Tuesday, an upper level shortwave trough will move into the Desert
Southwest and bring some lift along the leading edge into the
combined Panhandles. It will also bring in some Pacific moisture
under southwest flow aloft allowing for PoPs upwards of 80
percent Tue into Tue night. Because of the extra cloud cover,
first moving into the western Panhandles, afternoon highs on Tue
are expected to be held back in the 70s to the west and lower to
mid 80s in the eastern combined Panhandles. At this time too, a
fairly stout low pressure system will be deepening over the PacNW.
This low should eventually move down over CA/NV and keep ripples
in the flow aloft going through the rest of the week. Each day
beyond Tue is looking to have at least a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Scattered to few cloud decks from last night's thunderstorm
activity still remain this morning. However, conditions at all
three terminals are holding at VFR with skies looking to become
clear by the late morning. Chances of isolated thunderstorms do
have the potential to return during the late afternoon and early
evening for the Western Panhandles. However, the present trend
with the CAMs has seen these chances rapidly decrease with each
run with confidence in any impact to the terminals becoming very
low. Given this, have decided to leave mention of showers and
thunderstorms out of the current packages.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...11
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260524T1129.txt
163
FXUS64 KAMA 240458
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1158 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- There will be a low chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday,
favoring the western combined Panhandles. Severe storms are not
anticipated, but cannot rule out a rogue gusts exceeding 58 mph.
- Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the next shot at widespread
rainfall across the region.
- After Tuesday daily thunderstorm chances continue through the
forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Upper level ridging is expected to build over the combined
Panhandles over the next couple of days. This ridge will bring
afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 80s both today and
Monday. Right now looking at a 20 to maybe 30 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the area for this afternoon.
However, despite a decent amount of H7 theta-e advection, upper
level support is expected to be lacking. Convective initiation
will depend solely on reaching convective temperatures with any
activity waning towards sunset. Also, lack of shear will allow
any storms to collapse on themselves and not be very long lived
and pose a threat for strong wind gusts. Monday, is expected to
be a repeat of isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms favoring
the western combined Panhandles.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Tuesday, an upper level shortwave trough will move into the Desert
Southwest and bring some lift along the leading edge into the
combined Panhandles. It will also bring in some Pacific moisture
under southwest flow aloft allowing for PoPs upwards of 80
percent Tue into Tue night. Because of the extra cloud cover,
first moving into the western Panhandles, afternoon highs on Tue
are expected to be held back in the 70s to the west and lower to
mid 80s in the eastern combined Panhandles. At this time too, a
fairly stout low pressure system will be deepening over the PacNW.
This low should eventually move down over CA/NV and keep ripples
in the flow aloft going through the rest of the week. Each day
beyond Tue is looking to have at least a slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period.
Winds are expected to stay relatively light, less than 10 kts out
of the southwest through about 18Z. Then winds should pick up
closer to 15 kts. After 18Z, there will be a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly for KAMA and KDHT. Confidence is
low enough to leave out of the TAFs at this time.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260524T0458.txt
373
FXUS64 KAMA 232312
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
-Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight
with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats.
-Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the coming week,
where we will have to watch for some strong thunderstorms at
times.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows mostly clear skies
across the southern High Plains with only some lingering clouds over
the northern Panhandles from rain showers and storms earlier this
morning. Cloud cover has cleared out much quicker than model
guidance previously indicated and temperatures are warming up quite
quickly with some locations across the southern TX Panhandle already
reaching the lower to mid 70s at the time of this writing. This
change does lead to increased confidence in storms forming later on
today and potentially earlier than previously anticipated. Even
though the shear will remain weak once again today, higher
instability values may be a result of the good surface to mid level
moisture and the higher surface temperatures.
The latest suite of hi-res guidance seems to be picking up on this
trend by showcasing hotter afternoon temperatures than previous
guidance, including the NBM. In addition to the warmer temperatures,
the CAMs are showing the potential for isolated storms to develop
across the eastern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. CAPE values
by that time may be increasing upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg with
effective shear values around 25-30 kts may lead to severe
thunderstorms starting as early as 3-5 PM. Damaging hail appears to
be the primary hazard with any severe storms and given what occurred
yesterday, brief instances of hail up to 2 inches to potentially 2.5
inches (tennis ball) cannot be ruled out. The more likely max hail
size would likely be 1.75 (golf ball) to 2 inch, but if the initial
updrafts strengthen enough, the larger hail threat may materialize
for a short time. Any outflow that storms produce could also lead to
a lower end severe wind gust threat (60-65 mph wind gusts).
Additional storms are expected to form across northeastern NM and
move east associated with a shortwave trough moving southeast
towards west TX. As these storms move into the Panhandles, they
should encounter a more favorable environment for severe storm
development and could also pose a risk for large hail and damaging
wind gusts. This anticipated line of scattered storms should move
southeast with the severe storm threat ending during the early
morning hours on Sunday.
Weak flow aloft will remain in place on Sunday but low level WAA
should lead to H850 temperatures rising a few more degrees during
peak heating. Surface high temperatures are forecast to be in the
80s with a few locations potentially reaching 90. Synoptic forcing
does not look to be all that good on Sunday but convective
temperatures may be achieved so cannot rule out some isolated storms
developing during the late afternoon into the evening. The severe
storm threat appears minimal at best even though there could be
some instability available. The lack of forcing leads to low
confidence in location or any severe storm potential at this
point. If any storms do form, they should quickly dissipate during
the evening after day time heating is lost.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Weak upper level flow looks to remain in place over the southern
High Plains for much of this upcoming long term forecast period.
Even though the flow will be weak, the southerly low level wind will
keep Gulf of America moisture in place this upcoming work week. A
weaker low pressure system is forecast to slowly move east on Monday
and Tuesday which may provide some lift for showers and storms on
Memorial Day and Tuesday. Any severe storm threat at this time looks
too low to mention, but it cannot be ruled out if sufficient heating
and instability can occur.
An elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop by mid to
late week stretching from the southern US all the way to
central/northern Canada. The high pressure center may even be as far
north as the Canadian Prairie Provinces by the end of the week.
Thankfully for us this far south, the temperatures are not expected
to be impacted too much by this ridge due to the high being so far
north, so temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s next week.
An H500 low pressure system should dig south mid week across the
western CONUS. Any weak shortwave troughs out ahead of that system
may lead to continued shower and storm chances for the Panhandles.
Timing of those waves along with confidence in any storms being able
to develop across the area is low at this time.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A line of thunderstorms is expected to move southeast through the
combined Panhandles. First impacting KDHT, then KGUY, and lastly
impact KAMA. Strong to severe winds and large hail cannot be ruled
out with these storms. Though the severe potential should lessen
as it gets to KAMA. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with primarily
light southerly winds around 5-14 kts. KAMA should be storm free
after 05Z.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260523T2312.txt
545
FXUS64 KAMA 231721
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
-Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight
with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats.
-Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the coming week,
where we will have to watch for some strong thunderstorms at
times.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows mostly clear skies
across the southern High Plains with only some lingering clouds over
the northern Panhandles from rain showers and storms earlier this
morning. Cloud cover has cleared out much quicker than model
guidance previously indicated and temperatures are warming up quite
quickly with some locations across the southern TX Panhandle already
reaching the lower to mid 70s at the time of this writing. This
change does lead to increased confidence in storms forming later on
today and potentially earlier than previously anticipated. Even
though the shear will remain weak once again today, higher
instability values may be a result of the good surface to mid level
moisture and the higher surface temperatures.
The latest suite of hi-res guidance seems to be picking up on this
trend by showcasing hotter afternoon temperatures than previous
guidance, including the NBM. In addition to the warmer temperatures,
the CAMs are showing the potential for isolated storms to develop
across the eastern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon. CAPE values
by that time may be increasing upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg with
effective shear values around 25-30 kts may lead to severe
thunderstorms starting as early as 3-5 PM. Damaging hail appears to
be the primary hazard with any severe storms and given what occurred
yesterday, brief instances of hail up to 2 inches to potentially 2.5
inches (tennis ball) cannot be ruled out. The more likely max hail
size would likely be 1.75 (golf ball) to 2 inch, but if the initial
updrafts strengthen enough, the larger hail threat may materialize
for a short time. Any outflow that storms produce could also lead to
a lower end severe wind gust threat (60-65 mph wind gusts).
Additional storms are expected to form across northeastern NM and
move east associated with a shortwave trough moving southeast
towards west TX. As these storms move into the Panhandles, they
should encounter a more favorable environment for severe storm
development and could also pose a risk for large hail and damaging
wind gusts. This anticipated line of scattered storms should move
southeast with the severe storm threat ending during the early
morning hours on Sunday.
Weak flow aloft will remain in place on Sunday but low level WAA
should lead to H850 temperatures rising a few more degrees during
peak heating. Surface high temperatures are forecast to be in the
80s with a few locations potentially reaching 90. Synoptic forcing
does not look to be all that good on Sunday but convective
temperatures may be achieved so cannot rule out some isolated storms
developing during the late afternoon into the evening. The severe
storm threat appears minimal at best even though there could be
some instability available. The lack of forcing leads to low
confidence in location or any severe storm potential at this
point. If any storms do form, they should quickly dissipate during
the evening after day time heating is lost.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Weak upper level flow looks to remain in place over the southern
High Plains for much of this upcoming long term forecast period.
Even though the flow will be weak, the southerly low level wind will
keep Gulf of America moisture in place this upcoming work week. A
weaker low pressure system is forecast to slowly move east on Monday
and Tuesday which may provide some lift for showers and storms on
Memorial Day and Tuesday. Any severe storm threat at this time looks
too low to mention, but it cannot be ruled out if sufficient heating
and instability can occur.
An elongated ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop by mid to
late week stretching from the southern US all the way to
central/northern Canada. The high pressure center may even be as far
north as the Canadian Prairie Provinces by the end of the week.
Thankfully for us this far south, the temperatures are not expected
to be impacted too much by this ridge due to the high being so far
north, so temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s next week.
An H500 low pressure system should dig south mid week across the
western CONUS. Any weak shortwave troughs out ahead of that system
may lead to continued shower and storm chances for the Panhandles.
Timing of those waves along with confidence in any storms being able
to develop across the area is low at this time.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF
period. PROB30 group was added for KAMA from around 23Z through
about 02-03Z for TSRA potential where erratic winds from TSRA are
possible. Otherwise, overall winds will be from the south and
southeast at 5-15 kts.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260523T1721.txt
