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320
FXUS64 KAMA 011122
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
522 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold
front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will
enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours
tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will
slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out
somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res
model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range
from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s
in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers
more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values
(with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result
in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still
quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front
moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of
values, depending on how the cold front progresses.
Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500
NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there
should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas
Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets
(RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could
even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening
hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally
traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in
temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the
caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will
range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid
and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return
for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show
discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week.
Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture
transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern
combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending
on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern
Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the
main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain
(20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the
long term forecast period will remain above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
VFR conditions will persist for most of the day and night, until
MVFR ceilings are forecast to arrive from the east towards the end
of the period. Winds will be light and variable at times, but
should settle out of the east-northeast at 10-15 kts this
afternoon.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T1122.txt
685
FXUS64 KAMA 010539
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1139 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold
front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will
enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours
tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will
slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out
somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res
model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range
from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s
in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers
more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values
(with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result
in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still
quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front
moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of
values, depending on how the cold front progresses.
Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500
NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there
should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas
Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets
(RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could
even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening
hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally
traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in
temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the
caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will
range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid
and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return
for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show
discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week.
Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture
transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern
combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending
on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern
Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the
main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain
(20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the
long term forecast period will remain above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the east and northeast at
5-15 kts under few to sct high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T0539.txt
878
FXUS64 KAMA 010331
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
931 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold
front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will
enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours
tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will
slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out
somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res
model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range
from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s
in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers
more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values
(with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result
in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still
quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front
moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of
values, depending on how the cold front progresses.
Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500
NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there
should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas
Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets
(RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could
even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening
hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally
traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in
temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the
caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will
range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid
and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return
for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show
discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week.
Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture
transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern
combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending
on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern
Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the
main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain
(20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the
long term forecast period will remain above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the east at 5-15 kts
under few to sct high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T0331.txt
069
FXUS64 KAMA 282326
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again on Tuesday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Despite some northeasterly winds this afternoon across the
combined Panhandles, H85 temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees C
along with large scale subsidence, afternoon highs are expected to
be in the 70s this afternoon. Overnight winds are expected to
stay primarily easterly. Tomorrow, the surface winds are still
expected to become northeasterly behind a backdoor cold front.
As a cold pool sets up to the northeast over KS, the amount of
CAA expected to seep into the northeastern Panhandles is still
uncertain. General model consensus is the expected cold front
tomorrow will stall about halfway through the FA in the afternoon,
allowing for areas south of the boundary to warm into the 70s.
Still looking at a 20 to maybe even a 30 difference in afternoon
highs between Hereford, TX and Beaver, OK. Cloud cover behind the
front may impact overall warming as well. Better surface moisture
to southeast and east of the FA, along with some potential H7
frontogenesis may have some shower and thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Confidence is very low, but Wheeler and
Collingsworth have been given some 20 PoPs by the NBM, and will
leave the slight chances for now. Sunday night, cooler H85
temperatures are expected to dip in and out real quick (as low as
3 to 5 degrees C in Beaver County. At this time, only the OK
Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle are expected to fall to 32
degrees or less.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Monday's temperatures continue to be in question with the nature
of the backdoor cold front late Sunday. Many of the deterministic
models suggest an immediate retreat of the cooler H85
temperatures. The GFS, EC, and CAN all have H85 temperatures
rebounding to 18 to 24 degrees C by 00Z Tue, for the central to
western parts of the Panhandles. This suggests the western
Panhandles may still bounce right back into the 70s and approach
80. H85 temperatures in the east are progged to range from 10 to
18 degrees C, with surface temperatures possibly rising into the
60s. Granted, quite a bit of cloud cover may still keep
temperatures a couple to few degrees cooler than the current NBM
forecast.
An upper level cutoff low is still progged to traverse the Plains
just to the north of the CWA. Leading edge trough dynamics may
still bring some precipitation to the far eastern combined
Panhandles. However, trends for getting dry slotted over much of
the FA continue. This system is progged to bring in another cold
front dropping afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees for Wed's
highs compared to Tue. Some lower 80s in the south are expected on
Tue afternoon with mid to lower 70s in the north. Will likely see
a yo- yo in temperatures Tue into Fri, as temps on Thu are
progged to recover similar to Tue before dropping on Fri again to
be cooler like on Wed.
Thu night another upper level trough is progged to potentially
bring some rain to the area once again going into Friday. However,
PoPs are favoring the far eastern Panhandles once again. It is
too far out to know the details, but it looks persistence is key,
and likely the Panhandles will continue to see dryness.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the east at 5-15 kts
under few to sct high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260228T2326.txt
838
FXUS64 KAMA 281837
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again on Tuesday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Despite some northeasterly winds this afternoon across the
combined Panhandles, H85 temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees C
along with large scale subsidence, afternoon highs are expected to
be in the 70s this afternoon. Overnight winds are expected to
stay primarily easterly. Tomorrow, the surface winds are still
expected to become northeasterly behind a backdoor cold front.
As a cold pool sets up to the northeast over KS, the amount of
CAA expected to seep into the northeastern Panhandles is still
uncertain. General model consensus is the expected cold front
tomorrow will stall about halfway through the FA in the afternoon,
allowing for areas south of the boundary to warm into the 70s.
Still looking at a 20 to maybe even a 30 difference in afternoon
highs between Hereford, TX and Beaver, OK. Cloud cover behind the
front may impact overall warming as well. Better surface moisture
to southeast and east of the FA, along with some potential H7
frontogenesis may have some shower and thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Confidence is very low, but Wheeler and
Collingsworth have been given some 20 PoPs by the NBM, and will
leave the slight chances for now. Sunday night, cooler H85
temperatures are expected to dip in and out real quick (as low as
3 to 5 degrees C in Beaver County. At this time, only the OK
Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle are expected to fall to 32
degrees or less.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Monday's temperatures continue to be in question with the nature
of the backdoor cold front late Sunday. Many of the deterministic
models suggest an immediate retreat of the cooler H85
temperatures. The GFS, EC, and CAN all have H85 temperatures
rebounding to 18 to 24 degrees C by 00Z Tue, for the central to
western parts of the Panhandles. This suggests the western
Panhandles may still bounce right back into the 70s and approach
80. H85 temperatures in the east are progged to range from 10 to
18 degrees C, with surface temperatures possibly rising into the
60s. Granted, quite a bit of cloud cover may still keep
temperatures a couple to few degrees cooler than the current NBM
forecast.
An upper level cutoff low is still progged to traverse the Plains
just to the north of the CWA. Leading edge trough dynamics may
still bring some precipitation to the far eastern combined
Panhandles. However, trends for getting dry slotted over much of
the FA continue. This system is progged to bring in another cold
front dropping afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees for Wed's
highs compared to Tue. Some lower 80s in the south are expected on
Tue afternoon with mid to lower 70s in the north. Will likely see
a yo- yo in temperatures Tue into Fri, as temps on Thu are
progged to recover similar to Tue before dropping on Fri again to
be cooler like on Wed.
Thu night another upper level trough is progged to potentially
bring some rain to the area once again going into Friday. However,
PoPs are favoring the far eastern Panhandles once again. It is
too far out to know the details, but it looks persistence is key,
and likely the Panhandles will continue to see dryness.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail with relatively light
northerly winds transitioning to the easterly.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260228T1837.txt
