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397
FXUS64 KAMA 011808
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1208 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
- Precipitation continues to look bleak despite a couple of upper
level systems passing by this coming week.
- Upper level systems Tue and again Wed, likely to bring some
elevated to critical fire weather conditions to the Panhandles,
mainly in western to maybe central combined Panhandles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Mar
1 2026
As temperatures warm up this afternoon, a more definitive frontal
boundary should become more apparent, especially as cooler H85
temperatures move in from the northeast. Warm air is progged to
expand across West Texas this afternoon and even encroach on the
southern TX Panhandle. When this occurs the light northerly winds
being seen currently across the area will shift easterly behind
the front and westerly in front of the front. Still expecting a
decent temperature gradient this afternoon between the southwest
and northeastern Panhandles.
The north to northeastern combined Panhandles should see
temperatures drop to around 32 degrees if not below going into
tomorrow morning. This front is expected to give us closer to
normal overnight lows but still a few degrees above. For Monday
afternoon, some uncertainty remains for the highs as the cooler
air behind the front shifts east. Warmer air is expected to expand
across eastern New Mexico. This will cause a temperature gradient
between the western and eastern combined Panhandles for Mon
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Despite continued 10 to 30 percent chance for PoPs given by the
NBM to the combined Panhandles, it is looking more and more likely
that the entire area is going to miss out on rainfall with this
first system this week. Even the eastern TX Panhandle, where some
of the higher PoPs around 30 percent exist, may still not even
measure any rain.
About a week ago, models showed this mid to upper level low
potentially bringing us rain for Tuesday night. Now models are
showing this low taking a track too far north for any
precipitation to be realized along with a dry slot overtaking
pretty much the entire FA. The downside to this is a continued dry
trend and return of fire weather. A leeside surface low created
by this system will introduce some gradient winds potentially up
to 20 to 25 mph for Tuesday afternoon. Also, it will introduce a
surface trough allowing for some low dewpoints in the teens in the
western Panhandles. Add to that progged highs in the lower 80s
across the southern TX Panhandle and RH values drop to the upper
single digits.
As the aforementioned surface low travels southeast over the
Panhandles. Another cold front is progged to move in on the
backside of this low late Tue into Tue night. This front is
expected to bring slightly breezy north winds Tue evening. This
front is expected to aide in dropping afternoon highs on Wed into
the lower 70s, about 10 degrees cooler than Tue.
This is the first dip in the work week roller-coaster as
temperatures are then progged to pick back up to the upper 70s to
lower 80s once again on Thu. A secondary upper level system is
progged to approach the area Thu, this time bringing slightly
breezier surface winds that may potentially be in the 30 to 35 mph
range. Similar to Tue, RH values will drop in the west adding to
some fire danger to the central and western Panhandles. Also,
these conditions will precede another cold front that should bring
temperatures down for Fri. Will be watching the Thu system as it
could still bring some precip chances to the eastern combined
Panhandles. The NBM has given some slight chance to chance PoPs to
the eastern Panhandles for Thu night and Fri. With the current
persistent trends of systems dry slotting the entire area, would
hold off on betting on any rain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Northerly to easterly winds around 15 kts or less are expected to
prevail. Any cloud presence are expected to be high based leaving
VFR conditions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Fire weather conditions are expected to return to the area Tue, and
again on Thu. This will primarily be for the western to central
combined Panhandles. High wind highlights are not expected.
However, abnormally warm temperatures will combine with breezy and
dry conditions increasing the overall fire environment. These
fire weather conditions are expected to precede a cold front both
on Tue night and on Fri night. For Tue, RFTI mainly max at 3 but
some far western areas may potentially reach an RFTI of 4 to 5.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T1808.txt
320
FXUS64 KAMA 011122
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
522 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold
front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will
enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours
tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will
slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out
somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res
model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range
from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s
in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers
more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values
(with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result
in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still
quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front
moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of
values, depending on how the cold front progresses.
Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500
NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there
should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas
Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets
(RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could
even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening
hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally
traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in
temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the
caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will
range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid
and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return
for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show
discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week.
Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture
transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern
combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending
on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern
Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the
main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain
(20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the
long term forecast period will remain above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
VFR conditions will persist for most of the day and night, until
MVFR ceilings are forecast to arrive from the east towards the end
of the period. Winds will be light and variable at times, but
should settle out of the east-northeast at 10-15 kts this
afternoon.
Harrel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T1122.txt
685
FXUS64 KAMA 010539
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1139 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold
front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will
enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours
tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will
slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out
somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res
model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range
from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s
in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers
more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values
(with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result
in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still
quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front
moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of
values, depending on how the cold front progresses.
Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500
NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there
should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas
Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets
(RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could
even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening
hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally
traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in
temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the
caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will
range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid
and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return
for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show
discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week.
Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture
transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern
combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending
on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern
Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the
main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain
(20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the
long term forecast period will remain above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the east and northeast at
5-15 kts under few to sct high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T0539.txt
878
FXUS64 KAMA 010331
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
931 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again by the middle of the coming
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
As of the latest 03Z observational data, the main back door cold
front continues to move into southern Kansas, and eventually will
enter the northeastern Panhandles throughout the overnight hours
tonight. Going throughout the day tomorrow, the cold front will
slowly traverse the Panhandles from NE to SW, before stalling out
somewhere in the central TX Panhandle vicinity. Latest hi-res
model spread of high temperatures range for tomorrow will range
from the 10th percentile values of mid 40s in the NE to upper 60s
in the SW (if the cold front moves through more quickly and covers
more of the Panhandles). The upper 90th percentile of values
(with a slower cold front that stalls further north) would result
in values of highs from the mid 50s in the NE Panhandles to values
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along and south of I-40. So still
quite a range of temperatures 12-24 hours out from the cold front
moving into the Panhandles, with still quite the dichotomy of
values, depending on how the cold front progresses.
Along the cold front itself, in-conjunction with a very subtle H500
NW flow wave by Sunday afternoon reaching the Panhandles, there
should be enough lift for showers to develop in the far SE Texas
Panhandle. Some of the more aggressive model data-sets
(RAP/NAM/CMC) shows MUCAPE values approach 500-750 J/kg. Could
even support an elevated thunderstorm through the early evening
hours. Northeast winds behind the front as it should finally
traverse the Panhandles by Sunday night will result in
temperatures dropping off back to near average for areas off the
caprock with more cloud cover for Monday. High temperatures will
range from the lower to mid 60s for the eastern Panhandles to mid
and upper 70s for the western Panhandles as SW sfc winds return
for this portion of the Panhandles by Monday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Latest global model and numerical guidance continue to show
discrepancies with our rain chances by the middle of next week.
Majority of data supports a more pronounced H850-700 moisture
transport axis east of the Panhandles. But for the eastern
combined Panhandles, with these passing disturbances, depending
on the track of the system itself, the central and eastern
Panhandles could see a small window of rain chances before the
main dry slot moves in from the west. Not a high chance of rain
(20-30%), but some nonetheless. High temperatures throughout the
long term forecast period will remain above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the east at 5-15 kts
under few to sct high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260301T0331.txt
069
FXUS64 KAMA 282326
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles
starting Sunday evening and again on Tuesday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Despite some northeasterly winds this afternoon across the
combined Panhandles, H85 temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees C
along with large scale subsidence, afternoon highs are expected to
be in the 70s this afternoon. Overnight winds are expected to
stay primarily easterly. Tomorrow, the surface winds are still
expected to become northeasterly behind a backdoor cold front.
As a cold pool sets up to the northeast over KS, the amount of
CAA expected to seep into the northeastern Panhandles is still
uncertain. General model consensus is the expected cold front
tomorrow will stall about halfway through the FA in the afternoon,
allowing for areas south of the boundary to warm into the 70s.
Still looking at a 20 to maybe even a 30 difference in afternoon
highs between Hereford, TX and Beaver, OK. Cloud cover behind the
front may impact overall warming as well. Better surface moisture
to southeast and east of the FA, along with some potential H7
frontogenesis may have some shower and thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Confidence is very low, but Wheeler and
Collingsworth have been given some 20 PoPs by the NBM, and will
leave the slight chances for now. Sunday night, cooler H85
temperatures are expected to dip in and out real quick (as low as
3 to 5 degrees C in Beaver County. At this time, only the OK
Panhandle and far northern TX Panhandle are expected to fall to 32
degrees or less.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Monday's temperatures continue to be in question with the nature
of the backdoor cold front late Sunday. Many of the deterministic
models suggest an immediate retreat of the cooler H85
temperatures. The GFS, EC, and CAN all have H85 temperatures
rebounding to 18 to 24 degrees C by 00Z Tue, for the central to
western parts of the Panhandles. This suggests the western
Panhandles may still bounce right back into the 70s and approach
80. H85 temperatures in the east are progged to range from 10 to
18 degrees C, with surface temperatures possibly rising into the
60s. Granted, quite a bit of cloud cover may still keep
temperatures a couple to few degrees cooler than the current NBM
forecast.
An upper level cutoff low is still progged to traverse the Plains
just to the north of the CWA. Leading edge trough dynamics may
still bring some precipitation to the far eastern combined
Panhandles. However, trends for getting dry slotted over much of
the FA continue. This system is progged to bring in another cold
front dropping afternoon temperatures about 10 degrees for Wed's
highs compared to Tue. Some lower 80s in the south are expected on
Tue afternoon with mid to lower 70s in the north. Will likely see
a yo- yo in temperatures Tue into Fri, as temps on Thu are
progged to recover similar to Tue before dropping on Fri again to
be cooler like on Wed.
Thu night another upper level trough is progged to potentially
bring some rain to the area once again going into Friday. However,
PoPs are favoring the far eastern Panhandles once again. It is
too far out to know the details, but it looks persistence is key,
and likely the Panhandles will continue to see dryness.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the east at 5-15 kts
under few to sct high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...29
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KAMA/FXUS64/20260228T2326.txt
