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752
FXUS64 KFWD 161037
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot temperatures will continue for the next several
days with highs exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days, and low
humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity through
the first half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and dry weather will prevail to end the weekend and begin the
workweek as a strong mid-level ridge axis remains anchored
overhead. This will result in mostly clear skies and triple-digit
high temperatures today and tomorrow. The one bit of decent news
in terms of the heat is that humidity will be lower, with
dewpoints progged to mix in the 50s and lower 60s across most of
the area. Because of this, heat index values will be held to
within just a couple of degrees of ambient temperatures. A Heat
Advisory will remain in effect for most of North Texas today where
both heat index values and actual temperatures will range from
about 103-106. The lower humidity may also contribute to some
wildfire starts the next couple of days as afternoon RH values
fall into the 20s. However, lighter wind speeds of 10-15 mph or
less will preclude the fire weather threat from reaching elevated
levels. Care should still be taken to avoid any activity that
could spark a wildfire, especially as fuels continue to dry with
worsening drought conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Some of the hottest temperatures observed this year will occur
during the long term forecast period, especially through the
first half of the workweek. High pressure will remain in full
control with no chances for rain through at least Thursday. As a
result, heat and fire weather concerns will remain at the
forefront of forecast messaging through the long term period.
Triple-digit high temperatures, including some readings of 105 or
higher, will be the norm through most of the week, and additional
heat headlines will almost certainly be necessary. The earliest
that rain chances could reasonably return would be Friday/Saturday
when a handful of ensemble members want to break down the upper
ridge axis and send a weak frontal zone towards the Red River.
These precip chances are largely still below mentionable levels
in the public forecast, with hot and dry weather the most likely
outcome overall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
There are no aviation concerns through the next 24 hours, with
VFR and predominantly SKC conditions prevailing. All MVFR cigs
will remain south of the Waco TAF site this morning. Winds will
be southerly around 10 kt with a few daytime gusts of 15-20 kt.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 103 80 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 101 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 103 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 102 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 104 81 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 102 76 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 101 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 100 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 104 74 105 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-146-148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260816T1037.txt
991
FXUS64 KFWD 160535
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot temperatures will continue for the next several
days with highs exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days, and low
humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity through
the first half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and dry weather will prevail to end the weekend and begin the
workweek as a strong mid-level ridge axis remains anchored
overhead. This will result in mostly clear skies and triple-digit
high temperatures today and tomorrow. The one bit of decent news
in terms of the heat is that humidity will be lower, with
dewpoints progged to mix in the 50s and lower 60s across most of
the area. Because of this, heat index values will be held to
within just a couple of degrees of ambient temperatures. A Heat
Advisory will remain in effect for most of North Texas today where
both heat index values and actual temperatures will range from
about 103-106. The lower humidity may also contribute to some
wildfire starts the next couple of days as afternoon RH values
fall into the 20s. However, lighter wind speeds of 10-15 mph or
less will preclude the fire weather threat from reaching elevated
levels. Care should still be taken to avoid any activity that
could spark a wildfire, especially as fuels continue to dry with
worsening drought conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Some of the hottest temperatures observed this year will occur
during the long term forecast period, especially through the
first half of the workweek. High pressure will remain in full
control with no chances for rain through at least Thursday. As a
result, heat and fire weather concerns will remain at the
forefront of forecast messaging through the long term period.
Triple-digit high temperatures, including some readings of 105 or
higher, will be the norm through most of the week, and additional
heat headlines will almost certainly be necessary. The earliest
that rain chances could reasonably return would be Friday/Saturday
when a handful of ensemble members want to break down the upper
ridge axis and send a weak frontal zone towards the Red River.
These precip chances are largely still below mentionable levels
in the public forecast, with hot and dry weather the most likely
outcome overall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
There are no aviation concerns through the next 24 hours, with
VFR and predominantly SKC conditions prevailing. Winds will be
southerly around 10 kt with a few daytime gusts of 15-20 kt.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 103 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 99 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 101 79 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 100 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 99 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 75 104 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-146-148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260816T0535.txt
392
FXUS64 KFWD 152246
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot temperatures will continue for the next several
days with highs reaching or exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days, and low
humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity through
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and dry weather will remain the primary forecast concern
through the weekend as strong mid-level ridging remains centered
across the Southern Plains. This will lead to afternoon
temperatures having little trouble climbing to near or above the
century mark both today and Sunday.
For today, the combination of temperatures near 100 degrees and
dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s will push heat index
values to around 105-107 degrees across much of the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area. A Heat Advisory is in effect for this
afternoon for these areas. Farther west, deeper boundary-layer
mixing will result in lower humidity, but ambient temperatures
will remain hot.
Tonight will offer little relief, especially across the urban
corridor where lows will remain near 80 degrees. Most rural areas
will fall into the mid and upper 70s.
Sunday will be similar, although slightly drier air should mix
farther east during the afternoon. This will keep heat index
values below 105 degrees in some locations, but actual air
temperatures will exceed 103 degrees across portions of the
region. For that reason, the Heat Advisory has been reconfigured
to cover much of North Texas tomorrow as temperatures reach
103-105 degrees.
With no rain chances in the forecast, the hot and dry conditions
will continue to cure fine fuels across the region. Although winds
will remain relatively light compared to previous days, the hot
weather and dry fuels will keep a low threat for new fire starts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The hot and dry pattern will persist through the upcoming work
week with the highest heat likely Monday through Wednesday as the
upper ridge axis becomes positioned directly overhead.
High temperatures will generally range from 101 to 104 degrees
across North and Central Texas each afternoon, with the hottest
readings favored across North Texas. With afternoon mixing
lowering humidity below 30%, heat index values may be at or even
slightly below actual temperatures.
The dry air will also maintain an increasing wildfire concern,
particularly across western and northern portions of the area
where relative humidity values may fall into the upper teens to
middle 20 percent range. Wind speeds currently appear modest
through much of the period, but the prolonged stretch of hot, dry
weather and drying fuel conditions will continue to support grass
fire potential.
Meaningful rainfall is not expected through the work week. There
are indications the ridge may weaken or shift late next week into
the weekend, which would be the next opportunity for low-end rain
chances to return. Confidence in that pattern change remains low
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few low
clouds and south winds around 15 knots. No low cigs are
anticipated at ACT tonight/tomorrow morning due to drier low
level air.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 79 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 103 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-146-148.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ100-101-115-116-129-
130.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ144-145-147-
157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Shamburger
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260815T2246.txt
217
FXUS64 KFWD 151842
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
142 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot temperatures will continue for the next several
days with highs reaching or exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days, and low
humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity through
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Hot and dry weather will remain the primary forecast concern
through the weekend as strong mid-level ridging remains centered
across the Southern Plains. This will lead to afternoon
temperatures having little trouble climbing to near or above the
century mark both today and Sunday.
For today, the combination of temperatures near 100 degrees and
dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s will push heat index
values to around 105-107 degrees across much of the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area. A Heat Advisory is in effect for this
afternoon for these areas. Farther west, deeper boundary-layer
mixing will result in lower humidity, but ambient temperatures
will remain hot.
Tonight will offer little relief, especially across the urban
corridor where lows will remain near 80 degrees. Most rural areas
will fall into the mid and upper 70s.
Sunday will be similar, although slightly drier air should mix
farther east during the afternoon. This will keep heat index
values below 105 degrees in some locations, but actual air
temperatures will exceed 103 degrees across portions of the
region. For that reason, the Heat Advisory has been reconfigured
to cover much of North Texas tomorrow as temperatures reach
103-105 degrees.
With no rain chances in the forecast, the hot and dry conditions
will continue to cure fine fuels across the region. Although winds
will remain relatively light compared to previous days, the hot
weather and dry fuels will keep a low threat for new fire starts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
The hot and dry pattern will persist through the upcoming work
week with the highest heat likely Monday through Wednesday as the
upper ridge axis becomes positioned directly overhead.
High temperatures will generally range from 101 to 104 degrees
across North and Central Texas each afternoon, with the hottest
readings favored across North Texas. With afternoon mixing
lowering humidity below 30%, heat index values may be at or even
slightly below actual temperatures.
The dry air will also maintain an increasing wildfire concern,
particularly across western and northern portions of the area
where relative humidity values may fall into the upper teens to
middle 20 percent range. Wind speeds currently appear modest
through much of the period, but the prolonged stretch of hot, dry
weather and drying fuel conditions will continue to support grass
fire potential.
Meaningful rainfall is not expected through the work week. There
are indications the ridge may weaken or shift late next week into
the weekend, which would be the next opportunity for low-end rain
chances to return. Confidence in that pattern change remains low
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Southerly winds and VFR skies will persist across the region
through tomorrow thanks to the ridge of high pressure overhead.
Wind speeds will generally range between 10-15 kts with minimal
variability in wind direction. Similar to this morning, another
round of MVFR ceilings will develop south of KACT and migrate to
the northeast closer to sunrise. Current guidance favors the low
ceilings remaining east of KACT, therefore, no mention was added
to the KACT forecast.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 79 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 103 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-146-148.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ144-145-147-
157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260815T1842.txt
