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862
FXUS64 KFWD 011142
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist north of
Highway 380 today and tonight.
- Widespread rain and storm chances return Tuesday night through
next weekend. Some severe storms may be possible. The potential
for flooding increases next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
The overnight guidance has increased the coverage of thunderstorms
along a cold front in Central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
There also appears to be sufficient shear and instability to
warrant a low severe threat with any storms that develop later
today (to our north). Why am I talking about it if the storms are
in Oklahoma? Well, the cold front looks to move into our
northwesternmost counties around sunset this evening. We're not
completely convinced that thunderstorms will accompany the front
as it moves into our area (the better forcing is to our north),
but it's worth at least mentioning as something to keep an eye on.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
A warm and moist advective regime has taken hold of the region and
should continue for the next few days. A stalled front to our
north in Oklahoma may move into far Western North Texas early
Monday, but it should wash out and retreat north by Monday
evening. As a result, today and tomorrow's weather should be
pretty similar to each other with highs around 80 (+/- a few
degrees) and lows around 60 (+/- a few degrees). The main change
in the weather will be the marked increase of humidity compared
to the past few days. Dewpoint temperatures today and tomorrow
afternoon should be about 10 degrees higher than yesterday. The
increased humidity will dampen the fire weather threat despite
above-normal temperatures and breezy south winds each afternoon.
Also, expect patches of stratus both mornings that give way to
mostly sunny skies in the afternoon.
There are low (20-30%) rain chances for locations generally along
and north of Highway 380 today and tonight. Early this morning and
most of today, precip would develop largely as a result of a faint
zone of ascent between ~800-600 mb. Precip chances associated with
this are capped at 20% and this zone of ascent should move well
north of our area by this afternoon. We briefly mentioned the
stalled front to our north. It is forecast to become better
defined over the course of the day and start to advance south
tonight. Warm, moist air will continue to move into--and overtop
of--the front and help develop scattered showers along and behind
the front this evening and tonight. The front should remain to our
north, but there is a chance (30-40%) it moves into our far
northwestern counties late tonight into Monday. If it does, then
there would likely be a few showers associated with the front. If
it does not, then rain chances in our area should remain below 20%.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Tuesday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the forecast period
as warmer air from the southwest nudges into the region. Dewpoint
temperatures will be similar to today/Monday's values, but the
warmer air aloft will allow for deeper mixing and slightly lower
afternoon humidity values. As a result, we may re-introduce an
elevated fire weather threat for a few of our Big Country counties
Tuesday afternoon.
Southwest flow aloft will take hold of the region by Tuesday night
and remain in place through next weekend. This pattern shift will
bring an unsettled weather pattern to the Southern Plains for
several days, marked by a few rain-producing systems. The first
should move through Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front is
slated to briefly move into our forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but the mid- and upper-level forcing will out pace the
front and allow it to stall and wash out pretty quick. Even with
the front stalling well NW of D/FW, there should be enough lift
and moisture from the forcing aloft to produce widespread showers
and a few storms. The main impact brought about by this system is
beneficial rainfall. Median rain amounts for most of the area are
between 0.5 to 1" of rain, with higher amounts further northeast
and lower amounts west. There is also a low threat of strong to
severe storms with this system. Lapse rates aloft are strong
enough to support severe weather, but we still need some kind of
ascent to get parcels past the low-level inhibition. This will be
difficult without the front, but there will be less inhibition
further east. However, given the elevated lapse rates aloft, there
is a low threat for a few elevated hail storms across most of
North Texas and a higher (...but still low) severe threat further
east Wednesday night into Thursday.
Expect a relative lull in precip Thursday ahead of our next
weather-producing system that is forecast to move through late in
the week and/or next weekend. It's hard to pinpoint exact timing
and finer details, but the overall pattern will feature "active"
southwest flow aloft with a surface front moving into the Southern
Plains at some point. Since we'll be about a week into steady
southerly flow in the low-levels, it shouldn't take much lift to
produce precipitation. As a result, rainfall totals next weekend
should by-in-large be higher than the mid-week system. Higher
rain totals combined with the antecedent moist soils, will
increase the risk of flooding, particularly for areas that receive
over ~0.75" of rain with the first system. It's too soon to get
into potential severe threats, but just know that as of today, it
is spring in Texas, so its best to be aware of a more active
pattern taking hold of the region late in the week and next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
A blanket of low MVFR/high IFR ceilings are moving into southern
D10 at the beginning of the TAF period and should prevail through
most of the morning. The western edge of the stratus is a little
ragged, so there may be periods of VFR, but we still opted to keep
a simplified message of prevailing MVFR. The ceilings should lift
and scatter later this morning with VFR and south flow prevailing
this afternoon and evening. Another surge of stratus is expected
tonight and tomorrow morning, but we weren't confident enough to
include it in the D10 TAFs at this time.
We are expecting isolated/sparse thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and evening well north and northwest of DFW. They should
not impact the terminals directly, but marginal impacts to the
Bowie cornerpost during the evening push are possible.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 59 81 62 / 10 10 10 0
Waco 81 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 80 56 77 59 / 10 20 10 0
Denton 80 57 80 58 / 10 20 10 0
McKinney 80 57 79 60 / 10 20 10 0
Dallas 81 60 81 63 / 10 10 10 0
Terrell 81 56 81 60 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 84 58 83 62 / 0 0 10 0
Temple 83 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 84 58 82 58 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260301T1142.txt
300
FXUS64 KFWD 010711
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist north of
Highway 380 today and tonight.
- Widespread rain and storm chances return Tuesday night through
next weekend. Some severe storms may be possible. The potential
for flooding increases next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
A warm and moist advective regime has taken hold of the region and
should continue for the next few days. A stalled front to our
north in Oklahoma may move into far Western North Texas early
Monday, but it should wash out and retreat north by Monday
evening. As a result, today and tomorrow's weather should be
pretty similar to each other with highs around 80 (+/- a few
degrees) and lows around 60 (+/- a few degrees). The main change
in the weather will be the marked increase of humidity compared
to the past few days. Dewpoint temperatures today and tomorrow
afternoon should be about 10 degrees higher than yesterday. The
increased humidity will dampen the fire weather threat despite
above-normal temperatures and breezy south winds each afternoon.
Also, expect patches of stratus both mornings that give way to
mostly sunny skies in the afternoon.
There are low (20-30%) rain chances for locations generally along
and north of Highway 380 today and tonight. Early this morning and
most of today, precip would develop largely as a result of a faint
zone of ascent between ~800-600 mb. Precip chances associated with
this are capped at 20% and this zone of ascent should move well
north of our area by this afternoon. We briefly mentioned the
stalled front to our north. It is forecast to become better
defined over the course of the day and start to advance south
tonight. Warm, moist air will continue to move into--and overtop
of--the front and help develop scattered showers along and behind
the front this evening and tonight. The front should remain to our
north, but there is a chance (30-40%) it moves into our far
northwestern counties late tonight into Monday. If it does, then
there would likely be a few showers associated with the front. If
it does not, then rain chances in our area should remain below 20%.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
Tuesday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the forecast period
as warmer air from the southwest nudges into the region. Dewpoint
temperatures will be similar to today/Monday's values, but the
warmer air aloft will allow for deeper mixing and slightly lower
afternoon humidity values. As a result, we may re-introduce an
elevated fire weather threat for a few of our Big Country counties
Tuesday afternoon.
Southwest flow aloft will take hold of the region by Tuesday night
and remain in place through next weekend. This pattern shift will
bring an unsettled weather pattern to the Southern Plains for
several days, marked by a few rain-producing systems. The first
should move through Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front is
slated to briefly move into our forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but the mid- and upper-level forcing will out pace the
front and allow it to stall and wash out pretty quick. Even with
the front stalling well NW of D/FW, there should be enough lift
and moisture from the forcing aloft to produce widespread showers
and a few storms. The main impact brought about by this system is
beneficial rainfall. Median rain amounts for most of the area are
between 0.5 to 1" of rain, with higher amounts further northeast
and lower amounts west. There is also a low threat of strong to
severe storms with this system. Lapse rates aloft are strong
enough to support severe weather, but we still need some kind of
ascent to get parcels past the low-level inhibition. This will be
difficult without the front, but there will be less inhibition
further east. However, given the elevated lapse rates aloft, there
is a low threat for a few elevated hail storms across most of
North Texas and a higher (...but still low) severe threat further
east Wednesday night into Thursday.
Expect a relative lull in precip Thursday ahead of our next
weather-producing system that is forecast to move through late in
the week and/or next weekend. It's hard to pinpoint exact timing
and finer details, but the overall pattern will feature "active"
southwest flow aloft with a surface front moving into the Southern
Plains at some point. Since we'll be about a week into steady
southerly flow in the low-levels, it shouldn't take much lift to
produce precipitation. As a result, rainfall totals next weekend
should by-in-large be higher than the mid-week system. Higher
rain totals combined with the antecedent moist soils, will
increase the risk of flooding, particularly for areas that receive
over ~0.75" of rain with the first system. It's too soon to get
into potential severe threats, but just know that as of today, it
is spring in Texas, so its best to be aware of a more active
pattern taking hold of the region late in the week and next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
A sheet of IFR stratus is currently starting to move out of the
Hill Country now and will continue moving north through the early
morning hours. The winds are a little stronger this far north, so
we're expecting the ceilings to be a little higher than what they
are currently, so we only have MVFR ceilings in our TAFs. There is
a 30-40% chance we amend the ACT TAF to include IFR ceilings and a
20-30% chance of IFR ceilings at the D10 TAF terminals. It should
arrive at ACT around 9-10Z and D10 between 12-14Z. Either way, it
should lift/scatter through the morning and become VFR by 17-18Z
at all terminals.
South flow of 10-15 kts is forecast early in the TAFs with breezy
south winds forecast later today and tonight. Another round of
stratus is forecast late tonight into Monday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 62 81 59 / 10 10 10 10
Waco 84 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 84 56 80 56 / 20 10 20 20
Denton 83 59 80 57 / 10 10 20 20
McKinney 82 59 80 57 / 20 10 10 20
Dallas 84 62 81 60 / 10 10 10 10
Terrell 83 58 81 56 / 10 10 10 10
Corsicana 86 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 85 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 87 59 84 58 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260301T0711.txt
014
FXUS64 KFWD 010000
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist north of
Highway 380 this weekend.
- Widespread rain and storm chances return Tuesday night through
at least Friday. Some severe storms may be possible. The
potential for flooding may increase towards the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Weekend)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
This morning's round of showers across our northeast have mostly
dissipated, though we'll maintain a very low chance (10-20%) for
isolated showers near the Red River through the afternoon.
Otherwise, warm and breezy weather is expected with afternoon
highs reaching into the 80s and southerly winds between 10-20 mph
with gusts between 20-25 mph. Low humidity, breezy winds, and
above normal temperatures will result in an elevated wildfire
threat across our western zones this afternoon.
A weak cold front will slide towards the Red River tonight but
will likely stall prior to reaching the forecast area. However,
the boundary will serve as a focus for the development of a few
showers which may skirt our northern zones late tonight into
early Sunday morning. Similar weather is expected on Sunday, with
breezy winds, highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and persistent
low rain chances along the Red River near the stalled front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The aforementioned cold front may attempt to slide a bit further
south Sunday night into Monday morning which will bring another
opportunity for isolated to scattered showers to portions of North
Texas. The front will then retreat north as an upper level trough
and surface low deepen near the Four Corners Region/Eastern
Rockies during the day Monday, with rain-free and warm conditions
expected for the rest of the day.
The surface low will eject from the lee of the Rockies into the
Plains on Tuesday, sending a cold front southward towards the
region. Winds will become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the front. Marginally low humidity is currently forecast
west of the I-35 corridor (around 30-40%), which should keep the
fire weather threat below elevated levels. However, given the
breezy winds, warm temperatures, and dry fuels, wildfires would
be difficult to contain should any start.
The cold front is slated to move into the region Tuesday night or
perhaps into Wednesday, with showers and storms expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. The front may become washed
out shortly after entering our forecast area, and it's unclear if
this will have any implications on our storm chances on Wednesday.
For now, have not made any changes to the NBM which keeps PoPs
associated with this system rather broad-brushed through Wednesday
night. As far as the severe weather potential goes, it does
appear we'll have sufficient instability and deep layer shear with
marginally steep lapse rates to support at least a low threat for
strong to severe storms. Forcing may be lacking though (especially
if the front washes out), which could keep the threat more
isolated.
Looking ahead to the later portions of the week, we'll
have the potential for multiple additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as additional systems move through the CONUS late in
the week and into the weekend. Each of these rounds could be
accompanied by a threat for strong to severe storms. Additionally,
depending on the rainfall that occurs with each round of showers
and storms, we'll have to monitor the potential for flooding.
There is a strong signal amongst ensemble members that our active
weather will continue through next weekend and potentially beyond,
so ensure you're keeping up with the forecast throughout the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
South winds of 15 to 20 kt should drop to 8-10 kt in the next hour
or so as low level flow partially decouples. A modest 35 kt low
level jet will develop overnight, eventually ushering in a deck of
stratocumulus Sunday morning. Confidence in cigs reaching the
Metroplex has increased, but only high enough at this time to add
a TEMPO group for MVFR 12-16Z Sunday. Higher confidence for
Central Texas experiencing low cigs has warranted the addition of
a prevailing MVFR group at KACT 11-15Z Sunday. Conditions will
improve to VFR at all airports late Sunday morning, followed by
south winds around 15kt with gusts of 25kt likely in the
afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 81 59 80 / 10 10 10 10
Waco 57 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 57 81 55 78 / 20 10 10 10
Denton 56 80 56 79 / 20 20 10 10
McKinney 58 79 57 78 / 10 10 10 10
Dallas 61 82 59 81 / 10 10 10 10
Terrell 57 81 55 80 / 10 10 10 10
Corsicana 58 83 58 82 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 57 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 56 83 56 82 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...30/MB
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260301T0000.txt
097
FXUS64 KFWD 281811
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1211 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions will exist in our western
counties this afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist north of
Highway 380 this weekend.
- Widespread rain and storm chances return Tuesday night through
at least Friday. Some severe storms may be possible. The
potential for flooding may increase towards the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Weekend)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
This morning's round of showers across our northeast have mostly
dissipated, though we'll maintain a very low chance (10-20%) for
isolated showers near the Red River through the afternoon.
Otherwise, warm and breezy weather is expected with afternoon
highs reaching into the 80s and southerly winds between 10-20 mph
with gusts between 20-25 mph. Low humidity, breezy winds, and
above normal temperatures will result in an elevated wildfire
threat across our western zones this afternoon.
A weak cold front will slide towards the Red River tonight but
will likely stall prior to reaching the forecast area. However,
the boundary will serve as a focus for the development of a few
showers which may skirt our northern zones late tonight into
early Sunday morning. Similar weather is expected on Sunday, with
breezy winds, highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and persistent
low rain chances along the Red River near the stalled front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The aforementioned cold front may attempt to slide a bit further
south Sunday night into Monday morning which will bring another
opportunity for isolated to scattered showers to portions of North
Texas. The front will then retreat north as an upper level trough
and surface low deepen near the Four Corners Region/Eastern
Rockies during the day Monday, with rain-free and warm conditions
expected for the rest of the day.
The surface low will eject from the lee of the Rockies into the
Plains on Tuesday, sending a cold front southward towards the
region. Winds will become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the front. Marginally low humidity is currently forecast
west of the I-35 corridor (around 30-40%), which should keep the
fire weather threat below elevated levels. However, given the
breezy winds, warm temperatures, and dry fuels, wildfires would
be difficult to contain should any start.
The cold front is slated to move into the region Tuesday night or
perhaps into Wednesday, with showers and storms expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. The front may become washed
out shortly after entering our forecast area, and it's unclear if
this will have any implications on our storm chances on Wednesday.
For now, have not made any changes to the NBM which keeps PoPs
associated with this system rather broad-brushed through Wednesday
night. As far as the severe weather potential goes, it does
appear we'll have sufficient instability and deep layer shear with
marginally steep lapse rates to support at least a low threat for
strong to severe storms. Forcing may be lacking though (especially
if the front washes out), which could keep the threat more
isolated.
Looking ahead to the later portions of the week, we'll
have the potential for multiple additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as additional systems move through the CONUS late in
the week and into the weekend. Each of these rounds could be
accompanied by a threat for strong to severe storms. Additionally,
depending on the rainfall that occurs with each round of showers
and storms, we'll have to monitor the potential for flooding.
There is a strong signal amongst ensemble members that our active
weather will continue through next weekend and potentially beyond,
so ensure you're keeping up with the forecast throughout the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR and breezy southerly winds are expected this afternoon with
wind speeds between 10-15 knots and occasional gusts as high as
20-25 knots. Winds will weaken to around 10 knots or so this
evening but will increase to around 10-15 knots again mid to late
Sunday morning with gusts around 20-25 knots.
High level clouds will move into the area late tonight into
Sunday morning. We'll have to monitor for the development of
MVFR/IFR stratus across the region Sunday morning. Most guidance
keeps any ceilings well south and east of the D10 terminals, but
there is a low chance it will develop across the Metroplex.
For KACT, have introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings for a
few hours tomorrow morning since there is slightly higher
confidence in MVFR across Central Texas. There will be another low
potential for isolated showers late tonight into Sunday morning,
but this activity is expected to remain north of D10 near the Red
River.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 82 56 78 / 10 10 10 0
Waco 57 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 56 79 55 75 / 20 10 20 10
Denton 55 81 53 76 / 20 10 20 10
McKinney 56 81 54 76 / 20 10 20 10
Dallas 60 82 59 78 / 10 10 10 0
Terrell 56 82 54 78 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 58 85 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 57 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 55 83 53 77 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20260228T1811.txt
