045 
ACUS02 KWNS 011713
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will
continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into
the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent
combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of
mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV
into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating
across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in
place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to
generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices
around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east,
diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected
within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across
KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited
ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should
limit the potential for organized storms.

..Moore.. 03/01/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260301T1713.txt



420 
ACUS02 KWNS 010635
SWODY2
SPC AC 010634

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great
Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become
quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high
pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the
top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will
result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the
evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from
northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern
edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will
be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into
northern Missouri.

Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the
vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the
central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south
Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260301T0635.txt



743 
ACUS02 KWNS 281716
SWODY2
SPC AC 281714

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California
Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A strong cyclone traversing eastern Canada this morning will be
followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS tomorrow. A weak trailing cold front
associated with the Canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south
into the Southeast and southern Plains. Isentropic ascent over the
frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of
OK into southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Although the kinematic environment is
conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture
return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe
thunderstorm potential. There is a low chance for a strong
thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest
RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into
OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally.
However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated
guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which
substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.

Elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within a residual frontal zone across the southern FL Peninsula
where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in
place. Along the West Coast, an upper-level trough pushing into
northern CA and southern OR will support isolated thunderstorms as
instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a
fairly moist air mass.

..Moore.. 02/28/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260228T1716.txt