884 
ACUS02 KWNS 160528
SWODY2
SPC AC 160526

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

...Northern/Central Plains...

An upper shortwave trough will deepen as it develop east/southeast
across Ontario and the Upper Midwest, resulting in broader height
falls from the northern/central Plains to Great Lakes. As this
occurs, 40-50 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
region. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest MN
into western NE by 00z. Ahead of the front, a corridor of 60s F
dewpoints are expected across central/eastern NE into IA/southeast
SD and MN. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop
by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly steep
lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer will
result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. There is some potential
upscale growth could occur during the evening across NE as a modest
low-level jet develops. If this occurs, the damaging wind risk could
increase.

...South-central Appalachians...

A vorticity max located over the Lower OH Valley will develop
east/southeast through 30-40 kt west/northwesterly flow aloft Monday
afternoon and evening. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in
place amid strong daytime heating. Large-scale ascent will increase
as the vorticity maxima approaches during the afternoon, and a
surface boundary begins to sag south/southeast over the region.
Steep low-level lapse rates, high PW values, and 25-30 kt effective
shear magnitudes could result in organized clusters producing
damaging gusts through evening.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260816T0528.txt



219 
ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151729

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...OH Valley eastward into VA...
A weak shortwave trough associated with ongoing convection is
forecast to move across the OH Valley and into VA late. Low pressure
is forecast to develop near the Lower Great Lakes, with a trough
sweeping across OH, western PA and WV. In the wake of early
activity, strong heating near the surface trough along with 70s F
dewpoints will yield moderate instability, with scattered storms
developing during the afternoon and spreading rapidly
east/southeast.

Shear profiles appear sufficient for a few supercells, but midlevel
lapse rates will be poor which will limit hail potential. Veering
winds with height and effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 may support a
brief tornado, but damaging wind gusts appear most likely as the air
mass will be very moist and 850 mb winds increase out of the
southwest at over 30 kt resulting in progressive outflows.

...High Plains...
Midlevel northwest winds will range from 15 kt over northeast NM to
25-30 kt from CO northward, while surface winds remain weak and out
of the southeast. This will maintain the moist air mass over the
region as strong heating leads to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from NM
northward to the Black Hills. Scattered afternoon storms are likely
to initiate in the uncapped air mass near the higher elevations,
with perhaps a greater storm concentration over CO and NM.
Sufficient deep-shear will favor cells capable of hail over 1.00".
Some clusters is likely especially over southern areas, with
additional strong gusts possible into the TX/OK Panhandles where a
weak wind shift will exist.

..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20260815T1731.txt