641 
ACUS02 KWNS 071713
SWODY2
SPC AC 071711

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida and the
Keys on Monday. Severe storms are not expected.

...South Florida...

An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf
will pivot east on Monday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by
late evening. Enhanced mid/upper westerly flow will extend across
the Southeast into the FL Peninsula early in the day, and weaken
with time through the period. At the surface, a cold front over
south-central FL will develop southward through the day, moving
offshore during the evening.

Large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the area, with any
stronger forcing focused well north of the region. Nevertheless,
rich boundary layer moisture will exist ahead of the boundary, and
weak instability is noted in forecast soundings. Poor lapse rates
will limit updraft intensity, and forcing along the front also will
be modest given veering low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few
thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning across South FL and
surroundings coastal/near-shore areas. This activity may persist
into the afternoon before diminishing. Severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 12/07/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20251207T1713.txt



971 
ACUS02 KWNS 070502
SWODY2
SPC AC 070500

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern
Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period.  However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.

One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas.  In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.  

At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front.  Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS02/20251207T0502.txt