368 
ACUS48 KWNS 240902
SWOD48
SPC AC 240900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on
D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the
southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift
eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the
central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is
low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered
thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central
Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep
organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far
western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though
large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.

For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance
suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with
the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for
strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the
northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee
troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into
the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as
flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to
D7/Saturday.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS48/20260524T0902.txt